US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI6520

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 006520 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/23/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PTER, PGOV, ECON, SNAR, SCUL, PBTS, PINR, IN, PK, INDO-PAK, UNGA 
SUBJECT: ALL EYES ON UNGA SUMMIT AS INDO-PAK TALKS WRAP UP 
 
REF: NEW DELHI 1073 
 
Classified By: A/DCM Geoff Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary: Round Two of the Indo-Pakistan Composite 
Dialogue (CD) is drawing to a close with few concrete 
results, although the two sides managed to preserve a sense 
of forward movement, which reinforces the broad Indian public 
support for rapprochement with Pakistan.  To facilitate 
dialogue, the PM has formally acknowledged SK Lambah's role 
as his back-channel to Musharraf.  Selling the Indian public 
on the need to be generous with Pakistan will be difficult -- 
a recent poll indicates that although a plurality (42 
percent) of Indians surveyed favor the peace process, an 
overwhelming majority (70 percent) say they do not trust 
Musharraf himself.  Forty-two percent also say that Pakistan 
has not done enough to restrict cross-border terrorism, and 
72 percent say PM Singh has been too lenient on terror.  The 
background atmospherics are mixed, with every step forward 
(the genuinely friendly launch of a new Track-2 forum for 
Indo-Pak parliamentarians) followed by one backward (such as 
the uproar here after Pakistan sentenced an accused Indian 
spy to hang).  Nevertheless, there is a broad consensus in 
India that dialogue is the only realistic path.  End Summary. 
 
CD Wrapping Up, But Watch UNGA for Real News 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
2.  (U) Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran will travel to 
Islamabad August 31 - September 2 to wrap up the Composite 
Dialogue talks with his Pakistani counterpart, Riaz Mohammad 
Khan.  (Note: Other bilateral issues, including expanding 
transportation links, fall under the umbrella of "technical 
talks."  End Note.)  The Foreign Secretaries will review the 
progress of the working groups that discussed the following 
topics during May-August: 
 
-- Peace and Security, including CBMs 
 
-- Demilitarizing Siachen Glacier 
 
-- The Wullar Barrage/Tulbul Navigation Project 
 
-- Demarcating the International Boundary at Sir Creek 
 
-- Economic and Commercial Cooperation 
 
-- Promotion of Friendly Exchanges 
 
-- Terrorism and Drug Trafficking (to be held August 29-30) 
 
3.  (C) The Foreign Ministers plan to meet on October 4 in 
Islamabad, according to the MEA, following PM Singh and 
President Musharraf's expected meeting on the margins of the 
UNGA in September.  New Delhi-based Pakistan watchers, such 
as Observer Research Foundation's Wilson John, say that the 
UNGA event will be the one to watch.  John commented recently 
that Musharraf would want to be associated with any 
breakthroughs, which was one reason why the CD process seemed 
to slow down over the summer. 
 
Lambah's Role Formalized, Streamlined, Invigorated 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
4.  (U) In a public sign of Indian commitment to dialogue 
with Pakistan, the PM's back-channel interlocutor to 
Islamabad Satinder Kumar Lambah (Reftel) was appointed a 
Special Envoy within the PMO on August 22, holding the rank 
of secretary (the senior-most rung of the Indian 
bureaucracy).  Although Lambah has been acting unofficially 
in this capacity for more than six months, this marks the 
first public GOI acknowledgment of his position and the 
importance of his role.  He relinquished his post as Convener 
of the National Security Advisory Board to former Foreign 
Secretary MK Rasgotra -- a frequent Embassy contact -- before 
 
SIPDIS 
the end of his two-year term, which will allow Lambah to 
focus more intently on Indo-Pak diplomacy, including the 
expected Manmohan-Musharraf meeting. 
 
Indians are Pro-Peace, but Don't Trust Musharraf 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
5.  (U) The recently published "India Today: Mood of the 
Nation Poll," which surveyed a robust 12,000-plus eligible 
voters from 19 states in late July-early August, yielded 
insights into Indian views of Indo-Pak relations.  Although a 
42 percent plurality of respondents said the Indo-Pak peace 
process has a good chance of succeeding, the same percentage 
answered that Pakistan has not done enough to control 
cross-border terrorism.  A dose of reality, however, is the 
whopping 70 percent of respondents who "do not trust 
President Musharraf."  Moreover, 72 percent say the PM has 
not done enough to pressure Pakistan on terrorism. 
 
High-Profile Spy Case Spices Up Diplomatic Stew 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
6.  (U) After the Pakistani Supreme Court cleared the way for 
the execution of an Indian national, Sarabjit Singh, accused 
of being a RAW agent, the accused's rural Punjab family 
launched a major PR offensive.  Photos of the accused's 
sister and two daughters graced the front pages of India's 
major daily newspapers, along with their protests that "they 
have the wrong man" and their threat to commit suicide if he 
is executed.  The PM stated he would call Musharraf to push 
for clemency.  As this drama unfolds, the sense we get from 
our India-Pakistan watchers is that some swap of spies will 
be worked out before the accused faces the hangman, and, more 
importantly, before the all-important UNGA meeting of the two 
leaders.  If this does not happen, and Singh is executed, 
that unusual action will distract severely from the goodwill 
generated by the past year's spurt in people-to-people 
contacts. 
 
Positive Launch of Track-2 Parliamentarians Forum 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
7.  (U) Adding a positive note to Delhi-Islamabad relations, 
respected Mahatma Gandhi disciple Nirmala Deshpande presided 
over the launch of the India-Pakistan Parliamentarians Forum 
(IPPF) on August 23.  The guests of honor included Pakistani 
legislators MP Bhandara (PML-Q), Sherry Rehman (PPP), and 
Kunwar Khalid Yunus (MQM).  Deshpande along with fellow 
Indian MP Shahid Siddiqui, presided over a program that 
highlighted trade opportunities and the common cultures 
between the two peoples, without dwelling excessively on the 
usual potholes of Kashmir and terrorism.  The room was packed 
with pragmatic MPs -- many of whom are businessmen -- and the 
bonhomie was evident and genuine.  Yunus particularly drew 
sympathy from the audience of MPs, journalists, and 
diplomats, by expressing his desire to bring together 
families divided by Partition; he added that he would soon 
visit his own sister, whom he had not seen since 1947. 
 
Indo-Pak Independence Day Celebration "The Biggest Yet" 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
8.  (C) Former Rajya Sabha member and Track-2 diplomat Kuldip 
Nayyar reported to us that this year's Independence Day 
celebration at the Wagah border -- the only active border 
crossing between India and Pakistan -- was "the biggest yet." 
 Nayyar years ago had inaugurated the annual candlelight 
vigil for peace with a handful of fellow legislators; it has 
since grown to a massive event attended by thousands on both 
sides of the border, including politicians and celebrities. 
The ebullient Nayyar, who was decidedly upbeat over the 
changes he was witnessed in Indo-Pak relations in recent 
years, telling us it was "the most enthusiastic crowd ever." 
 
Comment: Focus is on UNGA and Musharraf 
--------------------------------------- 
 
9.  (C) The positive Indo-Pak headline-grabbers over the past 
year, particularly the cross-LoC bus and agreement to a 
face-saving solution to the Baglihar Dam impasse, have taken 
place outside the CD framework (which is dominated by the two 
largely implacable bureaucracies), demonstrating the 
continued need for high-level political muscle to ensure that 
deliverables get delivered.  The next such opportunity will 
be at UNGA.  Despite the Bollywood-style press coverage 
Musharraf enjoyed during his April visit to Delhi, an 
overwhelming majority of Indians still do not trust him, 
particularly after the spike in terrorist attacks and threats 
this summer.  This widespread skepticism about Musharraf will 
require an extra sales effort to overcome should the PMO 
decide to make any special concessions to Islamabad.  Absent 
a publicly accepted crack-down on cross-border terrorism from 
Pakistan, the government may be vulnerable to fresh criticism 
from the BJP and security hawks, but its dedication to 
dialogue remains firm.  As the Parliamentarians seem to 
understand, advancing the Indo-Pak peace process still 
attracts political rewards from a population that largely 
wants normal relations with its neighbors.  End Comment. 
 
Visit the Embassy New Delhi classified 
website:http://www.state.sgov/p/sa/newdelhi. 
MULFORD