US embassy cable - 05RANGOON979

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000979 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV, DS/IP/EAP, DS/IP/ITA; PACOM FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/22/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINS, ASEC, BM 
SUBJECT: BURMA: THAN SHWE HEALTH ISSUES FUEL POWER STRUGGLE 
RUMORS 
 
REF: RANGOON 973 
 
Classified By: CDA Karl Stoltz for Reasons 1.4 (b,d) 
 
1. (C) Summary: Heightened activity on August 23-24 at a 
Rangoon military hospital, including visits by senior-level 
officials, are the source of rumors that the leader of 
Burma's military regime, Senior General Than Shwe, has fallen 
seriously ill.  It is possible that Than Shwe checked into 
the hospital for unknown medical reasons, but reliable 
information on his health is unavailable.  Related rumors of 
a power struggle between Than Shwe and the regime's number 
two, Maung Aye, fueled by reports from Thailand-based exiles, 
appear to be baseless.  Rangoon is quiet and official state 
media indicates that, as of COB August 24, it is business as 
usual for the regime.  If Than Shwe has suffered a medical 
setback of any nature, it does not appear to have had any 
immediate impact on the regime's hierarchy or command and 
control capabilities.  End Summary. 
 
EYES ON THE OLD MAN 
 
2. (C) The denizens of Rangoon, always quick to fill a 
regime-perpetuated news vacuum with rumors about Burma's 
reclusive top generals, are buzzing on August 24 over 
speculation that Than Shwe, Chairman of Burma's State Peace 
and Development Council (SPDC) military regime, has fallen 
seriously ill.  There are no hard facts available as of COB 
to ascertain the veracity of this latest rumor.  Embassy 
personnel, however, have over the past 24 hours witnessed a 
heightened level of activity at Rangoon's military hospital 
No. 2, including several motorcades ferrying senior-level 
military and government officials in and out of the hospital 
compound. 
 
3. (C) The unusual activity at the military hospital, located 
near downtown Rangoon, appears to be the source of rumors 
that Senior General Than Shwe has suffered a stroke or is 
otherwise incapacitated.  Eyewitnesses in the vicinity of the 
hospital claim that Than Shwe made a visit on the evening of 
August 23, but did not stay overnight, and returned the 
morning of August 24 to spend the day.  Embassy sources at 
the hospital suggested that recurring back problems may 
explain the senior general's hospital visits, but the sources 
are unable or unwilling to provide more information, while 
other sources claim that his medical condition is more 
serious. 
 
4. (C) Burmese government and military officials appear to 
have adhered to their regular schedules on August 24, 
including public appearances.  We have heard no reports of 
meeting cancellations or other significant signs that would 
indicate a disruption in the regime's chain of command. 
Several cabinet-level officials, however, may have visited 
the military hospital, along with Than Shwe family members. 
 
THE EXILES WEIGH IN 
 
5. (C) During the afternoon of August 23, a spate of local 
rumors, which appear to have been fueled by reports from 
Thailand-based Burmese exiles, suggested that a power 
struggle had emerged between Than Shwe and SPDC Vice Chairman 
Maung Aye.  One such report claimed that Maung Aye had 
ordered the arrest of Than Shwe during the latter's alleged 
personal visit to Rakhine State on the Bangladesh border, 
while another suggested the opposite scenario, that Than Shwe 
had forced the retirement of Maung Aye. 
 
6. (C) Embassy military and airport contacts have affirmed 
that both generals are in Rangoon and have no immediate 
travel plans.  Official state newspapers and radio and 
television broadcasts indicate regime business as usual, 
including notice that Than Shwe had sent a message of 
"felicitations," dated August 24, to President Yushchenko on 
the occasion of Ukrainian Independence Day.  The regime has 
also given routine, broad coverage of Vice Senior General 
Maung Aye's hail and farewell meeting with the incoming and 
outgoing Russian Defense Attaches, which took place mid-day 
on August 23 and included the participation of several senior 
military officials. 
COMMENT: THE BEAT GOES ON 
7. (C) Senior General Than Shwe's most recent appearance in 
the state press was four days ago in coverage of his August 
19 meeting with visiting UN envoy Ali Alatas (reftel).  The 
73-year old regime chief, however, frequently disappears from 
public view, especially in recent years.  Prior to the Alatas 
visit, his most recent public appearance was on August 9, 
when he received credentials from the Spanish and German 
Ambassadors.  Both Ambassadors reported to us that Than Shwe 
appeared to be in good physical and mental condition at that 
time. 
 
8. (C) If Than Shwe has indeed suffered a medical setback, it 
does not appear to have had any immediate impact on the 
regime's hierarchy or command and control capabilities. 
Local residents are, naturally, intensely following the fate 
of the SPDC's twelve ruling generals, especially the top two. 
 As of COB August 24, however, Rangoon is quiet and, hospital 
activity and associated rumors aside, there are no signs of 
any significant disruption. 
Stoltz