US embassy cable - 05LJUBLJANA611

C O N F I D E N T I A L  LJUBLJANA 000611 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/NCE, EUR/RPM 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/14/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, ECON, SI 
SUBJECT: SLOVENIA'S PM JANEZ JANSA: CHALLENGE OF A CLOQ US 
ALLY WITH A WEAK COALITION 
 
Classified By: COM Thomas B. Robertson for Reasons 1/4 (b) and (d) 
 
Summary 
-------- 
1.  (SBU) Three months shy of one year in office, Slovenian 
Prime Minister Janez Jansa may feel frustrated that his plans 
for change and reform are not moving more swiftly.  It is 
clear, however, that he has managed to lay the groundwork for 
Slovenes to make the psychological shift from a minor 
constituent state of Yugoslavia to an independent nation 
fully participating as a member of the European Union and 
NATO.  A former dissident and later defense minister, Jansa 
is a true friend of the United States and NATO, and he 
betrays none of the animosity the Rop government showed to 
our efforts to bring peace and stability to Iraq.  He is 
pushing Slovenia to break out of the unsustainable comfort 
zone of a socialist welfare state to becoming a vibrant, 
market driven economy, while at the same time increasing 
Slovenian participation in key peacekeeping missions around 
the world.  He has doubled Slovenia,s troop commitment to 
Afghanistan, increased its already substantial presence in 
Bosnia by 50%, extended the mandate for Slovene police in 
Kosovo through 2006, and he is actively seeking ways to 
increase and strengthen Slovenia,s role in Iraq.  Moving 
forward on his agenda, however, has not been easy, as he 
faces strong resistance within his own coalition -- and in 
the media and opposition--on the ground in Iraq. 
 
2.  (SBU) At the same time, Slovenia, as a former Yugoslav 
republic, believes it can continue to provide insight and 
leadership as the EU and NATO grapple with the still 
troubling region of the western Balkans.  In the UN, as 
chairman in office of the OSCE, and in other key fora of 
importance to us, Slovenia has been a consistent supporter 
and promoter of human rights and democracy, and we can expect 
that under Jansa this will continue.  All the seemingly 
modest contributions Slovenia makes on the international 
stage add up to reveal a small nation with a growing sense of 
its global priorities and responsibilities. End summary. 
 
Background: At The Center of the Struggle for Democracy 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
3. (U) Since the early 1980s Janez Jansa (47) has been at the 
center of bringing democracy and freedom to Slovenia. 
Jansa,s dissidence began with the publication of paper 
critical of the Yugoslav People,s Army (JNA) in 1983. 
Throughout the 1980s, Jansa continued his vocal criticism of 
Belgrade and with three other dissidents published a working 
paper for the Constitution of Slovenia in 1988. This finally 
landed Jansa in solitary confinement for two months and, 
ultimately, jail where he served six months of an 18 month 
sentence. 
 
4. (U) Undeterred by his experiences at the hands of Yugoslav 
authorities, Jansa forged ahead in his purusit of a 
democratic Slovenia by helping to found the first opposition 
party, the Slovene Democratic Alliance (SDZ).  He was elected 
party vice president and in April 1990 in Slovenia,s first 
democratic elections, gained a seat in Parliament.  In May 
1990, Jansa was name Minister of Defense in the government of 
the coalition of democratic parties known as DEMOS. 
 
5. (U) As Minister of Defense, Jansa was instrumental in 
Slovenia's ability to face down JNA forces in June 1991 and 
gain its independence with relatively little loss of life or 
property.  Facing steep odds, Jansa and the DEMOS leadership 
developed a plan to take effective control of the Slovene 
government, after formally declaring independence on June 
25th.  In the following years, political parties spilt and 
reformed, and Jansa became president of the Slovene 
Democratic Party which remained in the opposition until the 
October 2004 parliQentary elections. 
 
Fast Forward to 2004 
-------------------- 
6.  (SBU)  The lack of a coherent alternative to Jansa,s 
clear vision is precisely what propelled him to success in 
the October 2004 elections.  While generally conservative 
about social change and pocket book issues,  Slovenes appear 
ready to have the Government withdraw gradually from the 
economy, create conditions through tax breaks and other 
incentives that will allow for innovation and diversification 
of the economy and, in a much broader sense, clearly define 
Slovenia,s national interests vis-a-vis NATO, the EU and the 
UN.  Because of its size - less than 2 million citizens with 
a standing army of 7000 plus 500 reservists - Slovenia must 
define and pursue its niche capabilities both economically 
and politically. 
 
 
Security Policy as Priority 
--------------------------- 
7.  (SBU) The same qualities of determination and vision that 
allowed Jansa to conceive of an independent Slovenia are the 
qualities that could make him a great leader of this young 
country. Slovenes are generally risk averse and suffer 
tremendously from the perception that as a small country they 
have neither influence nor profile in Europe, let alone the 
rest of the world.  Jansa and his colleagues have a different 
view, which has been evident since he took the political 
stage two decades ago.  His performance as Minister of 
Defense from 1990-1994 reveals him as one of the few Slovene 
politicians who really understands what it means to be part 
of a global society.  He laid the foundation for an 
all-volunteer, professional army and started Slovenia in the 
Partnership-for-Peace program before his mandate ended. 
 
8. (SBU) When Jansa returned to a position of power last 
autumn, he put security issues at the top of his domestic and 
foreign agenda.  His political coalition agreement 
specifically cites the goal of closer relations with the U.S. 
and strengthening of Euro-Atlantic institutions.  This was a 
clear change of course from the previous government, which 
had been much more in tune with the left leaning elements of 
the European Union.  In the last 10 months, Jansa has doubled 
Slovenia,s troop commitment to Afghanistan, increased its 
already substantial presence in Bosnia by 50%, extended the 
mandate for Slovene police in Kosovo through 2006 and 
committed to tripling the number of SAF in Ksovo by the end 
of 2005.  He is actively seeking ways to increase and 
strengthen Slovenia,s role in supporting our policies in 
Iraq. 
 
Making a Difference in the Balkans 
---------------------------------- 
9. (U) Like several of the other new NATO and EU members, 
Slovenia believes it can provide insight and leadership as 
these institutions grapple with the still troubling region of 
the western Balkans.  The extra dimension Slovenia brings to 
that discussion is its former status as a Yugoslav republic. 
In contrast to his immediate predecessor as prime minister, 
Jansa has put aside long-held regional animosities to clearly 
state Slovenia,s policy of full support for EU membership 
for Croatia and all the other former Yugoslav republics. 
 
Helping Us Move Our Agenda Forward on the UN 
-------------------------------------------- 
10.  (U) In the UN, Slovenia has been a consistent supporter 
and promoter of human rights and democracy.  Slovenia has 
co-sponsored UN resolutions on Cuba in the past when the EU 
could not reach a consensus position, and it supports the 
transformation of the Human Rights Commission into a Council 
with stricter criteria for membership.  Slovenia makes 
contributions to assistance efforts such as Darfur both 
bilaterally and through the EU, despite having a national 
budget which is nearly 90% earmarked, thus leaving very 
little discretionary liquidity.  All the modest contributions 
Slovenia makes on the international stage add up to reveal a 
small nation with a growing sense of its global priorities 
and responsibilities. 
 
Counterterrorism: Understanding and Responding to U.S. Needs 
--------------------------------------------- --------------- 
11.  (SBU) This new focus is manifested in several concrete 
ways:  the bilateral agreement necessary for installation of 
radiation detection portals at Slovenia,s main seaport was 
concluded in a matter of months under the new administration. 
 It had been frustratingly tangled in the GOS bureaucracy for 
over 18 months previously.  Jansa also undertood the 
Embassy,s need for better perimeter security.  Post had been 
arguing with the previous GOS for years over the 
strengthening of security through erection of security 
bollards and the closing of the dead-end side street by the 
Embassy.  Shortly after Jansa,s team took office, these 
issues were settled. 
 
Doing More in Iraq 
------------------ 
13.  (C) Jansa has done more on Iraq.  Facing very stiff and 
vociferous opposition by the press and the political 
opposition to Slovenia,s engagement in Iraq, Jansa has been 
laying the ground-work with the public adn within his own 
coalition, explaining Slovenia's responsibilities as a member 
of NATO and the Community of Democracies.  In addition to the 
five police trainers in Jordan, he has committed EUR 100,000 
to the NTM-I trust fund, sent EUR 5 million worth of  AK-47s 
and other light weapons and equipment to Iraqi Security 
 
 
Forces.  Since mid-2003, the Slovene NGO Together has 
successfully trained over 160 Iraqi psychologists to help 
war-affected children.  Most recently, Jansa has agreed to 
waive all transportation and port fees for the shipment of 
Hungarian T-72 tanks to Iraq through the Slovene port of 
Koper.  This contribution is vallued at EUR 500,000.  In 
private conversations with the Ambassador, Jansa has said he 
wants Slovenia to participate in NTM-I inside Iraq, but he 
made clear that, within his own coalition, resistance 
continues.  There can be little doubt that, if Jansa succeeds 
in moving his coalition partners along, both opposition and 
the media will do their utmost to make sure the political 
cost he has to pay will be high. 
 
CiO of OSCE, Future President of EU 
----------------------------------- 
14. (C) When the previous Government of Slovenia agreed to 
take on the Chairmanship in Office of the OSCE for 2005, it 
did not expect that it would be facing such seemingly 
intractable problems as it has with the budget and Russian 
pressure to diminish the role of OSCE field missions in 
promoting democracy and respect for human rights.  After an 
initial attempt to  retreat to the comfort of pleading lack 
of influence because of its size (small) and position (as 
mediator), Slovenia has lately provided more leadership to 
the organization, particularly during and following the 
events in Uzbekistan.  Supporting and promoting this level of 
confidence now and helping to ensure a successful Summit in 
December while Slovenia is leading the OSCE will pay positive 
dividends in early 2008 when this government assumes the 
Presidency of the European Union.  Slovenia,s priorities 
will include bringing the rest of its former Yugoslav 
neighbors into the EU fold.  We can also expect Slovenia,s 
exposure to Central Asia now to have a positive influence on 
the EU,s treatment of that region going forward, and 
particularly as Slovenia assumes it,s role as part of the 
Troika in late 2007. 
 
Time for Economic Reform 
------------------------ 
15. (SBU) The Economy is Jansa,s biggest domestic challenge. 
 Again, his ability to see beyond the comfort zone that 
Slovenia has settled into means he understands it is time for 
the long overdue decision to move the state out of the 
economy and let market forces work to increase Slovenia,s 
prosperity.  Jansa is faced with a bureaucracy both in the 
government and in the commercial sector which has benefited 
handsomely from the status quo.  Despite bold pronouncements 
during his campaign in 2004, Jansa is now finding it 
necessary to move on reforms more deliberately. His first 
significant target of reform is the tax system.  Jansa and 
his team have proposed tax reforms which will simplify 
personal income tax brackets, and which will free 
corporations from some burdensome payroll taxes.  In the face 
of expressed worries that Slovenia could lose its influence 
or even identity by selling off strategic industries to 
foreign investors, Jansa understands that without foreign 
investment, Slovenia,s economy will continue to wither.  He 
has to overcome entrenched, parochial views, even within his 
own coalition.  With a recent spate of layoffs in the textile 
sector, economic reforms are increasingly urgent.   Jansa and 
his team have expressed interest in further FDI from the US 
and are prepared to work creatively to attract the right 
investor. 
 
Conclusion 
---------- 
16.  (C)  As a champion of democracy and freedom in Slovenia, 
Jansa has the best of credentials.  He now, also, has the 
chance to demonstrate his credentials as a statesman by 
helping his small nation to reach its potential as a member 
of NATO, the EU and the global community.   He faces many 
obstacles, all of which can be overcome, and support from the 
U.S. can be instrumental.  We are taking advantage of all our 
high-level visits to reach out to the press and to other 
parts of society to show a more accurate picture of the U.S. 
an our policies and to demonstrate the benefits of a strong 
trans-Atlantic relationship.  We will have several more 
opportunities this autumn with visits by Senator Harkin, 
General Myers, and hopefully, the Secretary for the OSCE 
Ministerial.  We are also encouraging the Slovenes to do more 
outreach in the U.S.since they can best tell their story 
themselves.  We believe it would be valuable to have Prime 
Minister Jansa visit Washington sometime this fall and to 
meet with the President, as Jansa works in a hostile domestic 
polictal environment, to make Slovenia a stronger ally of the 
U.S.  It would also give us an opportunity to underscore the 
steps Slovenia needs to continue to make to realize its full 
 
 
potential as a a partner and ally. 
ROBERTSON 
 
 
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 2005LJUBLJ00611 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL 


 
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