US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI3509

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 003509 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/RSP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - 
ROBERT PALLADINO 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, KPAO, TW 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: CHINA-RUSSIA MILITARY EXERCISE 
 
 
1. Summary:  The major Chinese-language Taipei dailies 
focused their coverage August 20-22 mainly on the KMT's 
17th Party Congress, in which Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou 
took over the helm of the party, and the possible 
future outbreak of an avian flu in Taiwan.  In general, 
the newspapers in Taipei did not provide readers with 
extensive or original coverage of the on-going China- 
Russia joint military exercises.  The pro-independence 
"Taiwan Daily," however, did run a banner headline on 
its front page August 20 that read: "A former U.S. 
official urges Asia to join hands in deterring 
Beijing."  The sub-headline added: "[Peter] Brookes 
said the series of military drills by China, Russia, 
the United States, Japan and Taiwan will jeopardize 
regional security.  [He warns Asian countries] not to 
let Taiwan become the fuse of a third world war."  The 
newspaper also devoted almost a half of its front page 
that day to wire service stories on the China-Russia 
military drills.  The pro-unification "United Daily 
News" August 22 devoted its page 14 to wire service 
stories on the military drill.  One of the news stories 
on the page was topped with the headline: "Taiwan 
official: Beijing has reached its aim of joining hands 
with Russia in restraining the United States."  The sub- 
headline said: "Chinese military uses [the military 
drills] to open door to and absorb experience of other 
country's military.  [The drills] have attracted global 
attention and their long-term effect cannot be 
overlooked." 
 
2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, most 
newspapers focused on the challenges new KMT Chairman 
Ma Ying-jeou faces and the future development of the 
KMT.  "United Daily News" ran an editorial on the China- 
Russia joint military exercises that focused on 
historical cycles and the military drills; the 
editorial stated that Beijing has paid a high price in 
joining hands with Russia in an attempt to restrain the 
United States and Japan and thereby daunt Taiwan 
independence.  Taiwan Think Tank's Director for Foreign 
Policy Studies Lai I-chung, however, noted in an op-ed 
piece in the pro-independence "Taiwan Daily" that the 
joint military exercises made China and Russia appear 
to be united, but the countries are actually divided at 
heart.  Hung Mao-hsiung, a standing committee member of 
the Taiwan International Studies Association, said in 
an op-ed piece in the limited-circulation, pro- 
independence, English-language "Taipei Times" that the 
political significance of the joint military drills 
between China and Russia outweighs its military value. 
End summary. 
 
A) "The Bizarreness of Historical Cycles as Viewed from 
the China-Russia Joint Military Exercises" 
 
The pro-unification "United Daily News" [circulation: 
400,000] editorialized (8/20): 
 
". The joint Sino-Russian military exercises are also 
based on the thinking [as employed in China's modern 
history] of `playing off one foreign power against 
another,' and the price that China has paid to Russia 
is no less than what it did during the Ching Dynasty. 
Based on Beijing's agreements . with Russia, the land 
that China has agreed to let go and give to Russia is 
about 30 times as large as the land of Taiwan.  If 
China just wants to join hands with Russia to restrain 
the United States and Japan in order to daunt Taiwan 
independence, it has indeed paid a great price. . 
 
"Taiwan is in reality playing the same trick.  In order 
to join hands with the United States to resist Beijing, 
Taiwan, in the face of increasing financial deficits 
and unprecedented low trade surplus, still plans to 
raise its national defense budget to three percent of 
the government's GDP.  In order not to offend Japan, 
[the Taiwan government] also `put aside for the time 
being' its most discussed and adored `sovereignty' 
issue.  For Taiwan, an island that can hardly walk out 
[from beneath] the giant shadow of `China,' such a 
price is unbearably heavy. ." 
 
B) "Joint Sino-Russia Military Exercises Appear United 
Outwardly But Divided at Heart" 
 
Lai I-chung, Taiwan Think Tank's Director for Foreign 
Policy Studies, noted in the pro-independence "Taiwan 
Daily" [circulation: 100,000] (8/21): 
 
". If one wants to analyze why China and Russia want to 
jointly start such military drills, a relatively more 
reasonable answer will be that China wants to use this 
military exercise to make a show of its force to the 
`U.S.-Japan security alliance.'  Russia, on the other 
hand, is attempting to use this drill to release the 
strategic pressure it encounters in East Europe and 
Central Asia. . 
 
"The `Shanghai Cooperation Organization' (SCO) is the 
first that will be impacted by the China-Russia 
military exercise because both nations are the two main 
leaders of this organization.  After the two nations 
have started to conduct joint military exercises, the 
size of the drills may expand to include other member 
countries of the organization, and it will put pressure 
on other pro-U.S. member countries (such as 
Tadzhikistan and Kyrgyzatan) and observer (such as 
India), forcing them to keep a distance with the United 
States.  Once SCO has successfully driven out the U.S. 
force, Russia may likely expand the organization to 
include the Caucasus in an attempt to restrain Georgia, 
Chechnya, and Armenia from getting rid of Russia's 
influence. .  As a result, the future development of 
SCO following the joint Sino-Russia military drill is 
thus worth observation. 
 
"The situation on the Korean peninsula will be the next 
[that is worth observation].  Since both China and 
Russia are participants of the Six Party Talks as well 
as standing members of the UN Security Council, the 
joint Sino-Russia military drill will not only attempt 
to place pressure on the `U.S.-Japan alliance' but will 
also seek to form a new alliance among the participants 
of the Six Party Talks.  China has already [succeeded 
in] maintaining a close relationship with South Korea. 
If it could create a new cooperative relationship with 
Russia following the joint military exercise and apply 
it on the Korean peninsula, it will be able to form a 
confrontational situation between the `China-Russia- 
Seoul-Pyongyang' [force] and the `U.S.-Japan alliance' 
once the fourth round of Six Party Talks is resumed. ." 
 
C) "How Will Joint War Games Affect Security?" 
 
Hung Mao-hsiung, a standing committee member of the 
Taiwan International Studies Association, commented in 
the pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" 
[circulation: 30,000] (8/20): 
 
". Above all else, this [i.e. the China-Russia military 
exercise] is a breakthrough in the policies of both 
nations, who are cooperating for the first time with 
the military forces of a non-allied nation.  The 
significance of this action is threefold. 
 
"First, both China and Russia are gradually shedding 
their mutual suspicions.  Extensive negotiations have 
finally resolved disputes over the thousands of 
kilometers of land border between the two nations, and 
they are now moving toward building mutual trust and 
becoming continental allies. 
 
"Second, from the selection of the location for the 
exercise and the insistence by both sides that it is 
not directed at any third nation, it is clear that the 
political significance of the exercises outweighs the 
military values.  Third, the atmosphere of a new Cold 
War in the Asia-Pacific has been heightened.  Following 
the regular US-Japanese and US-South Korean military 
drills, China has held several joint anti-terrorism and 
sea rescue exercises with the UK, Indonesia and France. 
It is now embarking on large-scale military exercises 
with Russia.  This new Cold War is sometimes obvious 
and sometimes hidden. . 
 
"What impact will the exercises have on Asia-Pacific 
security?  China's `hegemonic' rising has become a key 
threat to security in the Asia-Pacific region.  The 
decision on the location of the exercises came after a 
disagreement with Russia over Beijing's initial desire 
for the exercises to take place further south, opposite 
Taiwan - over which it hopes to gain control, by force 
if necessary. 
 
"At least Russia recognizes the sensitivity of the 
situation, and was unwilling to act provocatively in 
the face of the designation of the Taiwan Strait as a 
`common strategic objective' by the US-Japan Security 
Consultative Committee.  Nor does it wish to cause 
undue anxiety for Taiwan." 
 
PAAL