US embassy cable - 05BAGHDAD3442

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 003442 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/22/2025 
TAGS: PGOV, PINS, KDEM, IZ, National Assembly, Sunni Arab 
SUBJECT: SUNNI NEGOTIATORS STICK TO CALL FOR DELAY ON 
FEDERALISM UNTIL NEW NATIONAL ASSEMBLY 
 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Robert S. Ford for reasons 1.4 (b) a 
nd (d). 
 
1.  (C/NF) Summary: At an August 20 meeting with PolCouns, 
two members of the Sunni constitution negotiating team argued 
for a delay in a decision on Federalism until a National 
Assembly can be elected under the new constitution. 
Stressing that Sunnis want to participate in upcoming 
elections, they complained that the Independent Election 
Commission of Iraq (IECI) has yet to open all promised voter 
registration centers (VRCs).  The Sunni representatives also 
complained of Sunni parties' lack of resources.  While Sunni 
Arabs will vote in national elections, these two local 
political figures weren't sure whom the national Sunni Arab 
leadership would turn out to be.  They discounted Allawi but 
said that former Sunni religious endowment leader Adnan 
Dulaimi has some appeal.  Our overall sense is that despite 
the real security problems in Sunni Arab areas, we will see 
more Sunni voters in the next elections than we saw in the 
January 2005 election.  It is far less clear whether they 
will vote for the draft constitution in October or who would 
gain their votes in the December 2005 election that is now 
only four months away.  End Summary. 
 
2.  (C/NF) Constitutional Committee member Dr. Hassib Arif 
al-Obaidi (from Kirkuk) and Sheikh Anwar an Nada al-Lahibi of 
the United Iraqi Council (from Mosul) told PolCouns that the 
current Iraqi political situation is too fragile to permit 
establishment of new regional entities inside a federal Iraq. 
 The Sunni representatives urged that the issue be kept out 
of the new constitution and left for discussion by the next 
National Assembly.  Obaidi insisted that he would support a 
decentralized government as well as Kurdish autonomy, but 
asked "how can we expect people to make serious decisions in 
the face of such constant threats?"  Both men argued that in 
the face of popular frustrations attached to both security 
and infrastructure problems now, it is impossible to have 
rational political debates about the future structure of a 
federal system in Iraq. 
 
3.  (C/NF) Lahibi and Obeidi said that Sunnis want to 
participate in upcoming national elections; they predicted a 
strong turnout.  However, Anwar urged that the IECI open more 
of the promised voter registration centers in Sunni areas. 
He claimed that in Al Anbar Province, only 9 of the initially 
proposed 28 VRCs are currently open.  Dr. Obaidi requested 
Embassy help arranging a meeting between IECI and Sunni 
leaders to discuss plans to decrease fraud and and increase 
transparency during upcoming elections. (NOTE: Our 
understanding is that the IECI has opened more voter 
registration centers in Anbar.  There is a need for more 
Sunni Arab political leaders talking to the election 
commission, and we scheduled such a meeting for August 23.) 
 
4.  (C/NF) Obaidi expressed concern over the lack of Sunni 
party resources to fully participate in elections.  They 
warned that no Sunni political entity would be able to reach 
Sunni voters throughout the country.  PolCouns urged that 
these two interlocutors think about how to join with other 
Sunni Arab political forces to form a stronger coalition.  He 
reminded them of the success of the Shia List 169.  PolOffs 
suggested that any party that rejected violence could 
approach IRI and NDI for support.  They took the point and 
noted that Ayed Allawi is trying to build such a coalition. 
Obeidi, however, warned that Allawi would have his own 
problems in Sunni areas; people would remember that Allawi 
ordered the attacks in the Fall of 2004 against Samarra and 
Fallujah.  By contrast, they thought the nascent "Sunni 
People's Conference" that held a well-attended meeting in 
Baghdad in May under the sponsorship of the Sunni Waqf might 
provide an umbrella under which Sunni Arab political leaders 
could gather.  Obeidi and Lahibi highlighted that former 
Sunni Waqf leader Adnan Dulaimi would be an effective 
spokesman in the eyes of many Sunni Arabs. 
 
5.  (C/NF) Comment: Obaidi and Anwar's plea for a delay in a 
decision on Federalism and more resources for Sunni parties 
tracks closely with conversations we held August 21 and 22 
with other Sunni Arab negotiators.  These points are often 
joined by arguments for sharing Iraqi resources at the 
national level and of the looming threat of Iranian 
domination of Iraq.  Their remarks about Sunni Arabs coming 
out to vote also tracks with what we hear from other 
contacts.  However, none of our interlocutors so far will 
hazard whether or not they will vote for the draft 
constitution and few will venture a guess about who will draw 
the most votes from Sunni Arab voters in December.  End 
Comment. 
 
Khalilzad