US embassy cable - 05CAIRO6448

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 006448 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
NSC STAFF FOR POUNDS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/22/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, EG, Elections 
SUBJECT: EGYPT'S PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN, UPDATE #1 
 
Classified by A/DCM Michael Corbin for reasons 1.4 (b) and 
(d). 
 
1.  (U)  This message is the first in a series which will 
update key developments in the Egyptian presidential campaign 
(August 17-September 4). 
 
------- 
Summary 
------- 
 
2.  (SBU)  The presidential campaign kicked off August 17. 
Not surprisingly, Mubarak has the most visible campaign.  In 
addition to his August 17 speech, he delivered a second major 
address on August 21 and laid out an ambitious job-creation 
agenda.  In the race for second place, Ayman Nour seems to 
have the upper hand over the Wafd Party's last minute 
entrant, No'man Gom'a.  The seven other opposition parties 
are disappearing without a trace.  After considerable 
speculation about backroom deals, the Muslim Brotherhood on 
August 21 urged its membership to vote, but not for any 
"corrupt" candidates.  The Judge's Club threat to refuse to 
supervise the election continues to loom over the September 7 
vote.  Domestic monitoring groups continue to prepare to 
monitor the vote, but have voiced concerns that the 
Presidential Election Commission is walking back the GOE's 
commitment to allow domestic monitors.  End summary. 
 
---------------------- 
The Mubarak Juggernaut 
---------------------- 
 
3.  (SBU)  President Mubarak launched his reelection campaign 
on August 17 with a carefully scripted speech that reiterated 
themes of reform and progress.  Clad in a blue jacket and 
white open-collar shirt, Mubarak presented himself as the 
experienced leader who is best positioned to ensure a "safe 
and strong Egypt."  He noted that Egypt's many domestic 
challenges required practical, concrete solutions, but 
offered few specifics about his own plans for change and 
reform.  In an August 21 rally in Cairo, Mubarak focused on 
his economic plans, including his promise to create 700,000 
jobs per year if reelected. 
 
4.  (SBU)  The fingerprints of a western campaign consultant 
were all over the August 17 Mubarak speech, which included a 
carefully chosen venue (a park in eastern Cairo), a phalanx 
of "representative" Egyptian citizens seated behind the 
president while he spoke (including peasants, youth, and at 
least one veiled woman), and plenty of glossy campaign 
posters waved by supporters (whose enthusiasm occasionally 
sparked chuckles and grins from Mubarak).  Along with the 
speech, the audience was presented with a short film about 
Mubarak's life and achievements.  This Egyptian version of 
"The Boy from Hope" would seem to be additional evidence of 
the hand of a PR firm.  Mubarak's reelection website 
(www.mubarak2005.com), which contains an extensive English 
language section, presents another aspect of the relatively 
sophisticated Mubarak campaign. 
 
5.  (C)  A recent non-Egyptian visitor to the NDP campaign 
headquarters told us that he had encountered an individual at 
the headquarters who the visitor took to be a foreign 
campaign consultant.  When our contact tried to engage him, 
the mystery man ducked into an adjacent office.  Our contact 
also noted that his NDP contacts had told him that they are 
engaging in a considerable polling effort for the campaign, 
though they also noted the sensitivity of releasing any of 
their poll results. 
 
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Nour's Challenge 
---------------- 
 
6.  (C)  Ayman Nour launched his campaign with an August 17 
speech at his Bab Shar'iya headquarters.  Nour has promised 
that, if elected, he will serve only two years at the head of 
an interim government.  He has promised to focus on 
constitutional reform, elimination of the emergency law, and 
an economic package that would create "real jobs."  Nour 
received an endorsement (of dubious value) from fringe 
politician Talat Sadat, the nephew of slain president Anwar 
Sadat, who himself had been barred for running on the Liberal 
Party platform due to intra-party squabbles.  More 
significantly, Nour has courted the Muslim Brotherhood, going 
so far as to join Supreme Guide Mahdi Akef in prayer at a 
Cairo mosque.  The MB has not reciprocated with anything 
close to an endorsement of Nour. 
 
------------------------------ 
No'man Gom'a:  Not much so far 
------------------------------ 
7.  (C)  The late entry in the race of No'man Gom'a has 
threatened Nour's chances of winning second place.  While the 
Wafd Party structure is creaking into action, Gom'a has so 
far not impressed.  His campaign managers launched his 
campaign without him, at an odd press conference on August 
17.  Gom'a appeared at a separate press event on the same 
day.  Gom'a's campaign advertisements have focused on his 
desire to have a "contract" with the Egyptian people.  Gom'a 
appeared to alienate the MB, after initial overtures, by 
stating that the MB should remain a social movement and not 
receive approval as a legal, political group. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
The rest of the opposition:  We hardly knew you 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
8.  (SBU)  None of the other opposition parties has had any 
noticeable impact.  On August 17, a number of them noted that 
they were awaiting their GOE-provided campaign funds before 
they could start campaigning.  At least one candidate has 
publicly noted that he will likely endorse Mubarak for 
reelection. 
 
-------------------------------- 
The Muslim Brotherhood Weighs In 
-------------------------------- 
 
9.  (SBU)  The MB announced on August 21 that MB voters 
should vote in the presidential poll but did not endorse a 
candidate.  The announcement ended, for the time being, 
previous speculation that the MB might throw its weight 
behind one of the candidates, or call for a boycott.  The 
MB's August 21 statement, released by Supreme Guide Mahdi 
Akef, described voting as a responsibility for which God 
would hold voters to account.  Akef further instructed his 
followers not to support a "corrupt" or "tyrannical" ruler. 
(Note:  the latter phrase in MB-speak is widely presumed to 
refer to Mubarak.  End note.) 
 
---------------------------- 
The Judges' Looming Decision 
---------------------------- 
 
10.  (C)  The Judges' Club continues to assert that it will 
not decide about its threat against the GOE to refuse to 
supervise the election, as required by the Constitution, 
until an extraordinary meeting on September 2.  The GOE has 
not publicly signaled its willingness to meet the judges' 
demands for increased constitutional and financial 
independence.  The GOE has continued to insist that there 
will be "full judicial supervision" of the polls.  A boycott 
of the poll by a significant number of judges could, in the 
eyes of some observers, open the September 7 polls to a legal 
challenge on the grounds that the GOE did not abide by the 
Constitution's call for judicial supervision. 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
Domestic Monitors Complain of GOE Double Talk 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
11.  (C)  In response to a statement by Mohammed Marei, the 
Chair of the Presidential Election Commission, that the PEC 
would not permit domestic observers to enter polling 
stations, the three leading Egyptian monitoring coalitions 
have filed a lawsuit against Marei.  Their suit alleges that 
Marei was speaking unofficially and not on behalf of the 
committee, and that his words will have a chilling effect on 
the domestic monitoring effort.  In addition, some monitors 
as well as a number of opposition parties have begun to 
complain that the GOE still has not released voter lists and 
campaign funds to a number of the opposition parties. 
Finally, the GOE has yet to issue a clear public statement 
about international monitors. 
 
 
Visit Embassy Cairo's Classified Website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/cairo 
 
You can also access this site through the 
State Department's Classified SIPRNET website. 
 
JONES