US embassy cable - 05BAGHDAD3436

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 003436 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/22/2050 
TAGS: PGOV, PINS, KDEM, IZ, Sunni Arab, Parliament 
SUBJECT: SUNNI NEGOTIATORS STICK TO CALL FOR LEADERS 
DISCUSS CURRENT POLITICAL OBSTACDELAY ON FEDERALISMLES 
UNTIL NEW NATIONAL ASSEMBLY 
 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Robert S. Ford for reasons 1.4 (b) a 
nd (d). 
 
1.  (C/NF) Summary: At an August 20 meeting with PolCouns, 
two members of the Sunni constitution negotiating team argued 
for a delay in a decision on Federalism until a National 
Assembly can be elected under the new constitution. 
Stressing that Sunnis want to participate in upcoming 
elections, they complained that the Independent Election 
Commission of Iraq (IECI) has yet to open all promised voter 
registration centers (VRCs).  Sunni leaders shared their 
concerns with PolOffs regarding Federalism, voter 
registration, and participation in the electoral process. The 
Sunni representatives also complained of Sunni parties, lack 
of resources.  While Sunni Arabs will vote in national 
elections, these two local political figures weren't sure 
whom the national Sunni Arab leadership would turn out to be. 
 They discounted Allawi but said that former Sunni religious 
endowment leader Adnan Dulaimi has some appeal.  Our overall 
sense is that despite the real security problems in Sunni 
Arab areas, we will see more Sunni voters in the next 
elections than we saw in the January 2005 election.  It is 
far less clear whether they will vote for the draft 
constitution in October or who would gain their votes in the 
December 2005 election that is now only four months away. 
End Summary. 
 
2.  (C/NF) Constitutional Committee member Dr. Hassib Arif 
al-Obaidi (from Kirkuk) and Sheikh Anwar a Nada al-Lahibi of 
the United Iraqi Council (from Mosul) told PolCouns that the 
current Iraqi political situation is too fragile to permit 
establishment of new regional entities inside a federal Iraq. 
 The Sunni representatives urged that the issue be kept out 
of the new constitution and left for discussion by the next 
National Assembly. met PolOffs August 20 to explain Sunni 
concerns with the Constitution status. First, they want to 
delay any mention of Federalism in the new constitution and 
to raise the issue in the next National Assembly. Dr. Obaidi 
insisted that he would support a decentralized government as 
well as offered a government based on the 1971 decree with a 
decentralized government and recognized Kurdish autonomy, but 
asked . Their argument: the security situation is still too 
dangerous and fragile. &hHow can we expect people to make 
serious decisions in the face of such constant threats?8 
Both men argued that in the face of popular frustrations 
attached to both security and infrastructure problems now; it 
is impossible to have rational political debates about the 
future structure of a federal system in Iraq.said Obaidi. 
 
3.  (C/NF) Second, Sheik Lahibi and Obeidi said that 
confirmedSunnis want to participate in upcoming national 
elections; they predicted a strong turnout.  However, Anwar 
urged that the To do so, he said, the IECI open more of the 
promised voter registration centers voter registration 
centersin Sunni areas.  He claimed that in Al Anbar Province, 
- only 9 of the initially proposed 28 VRCs are currently open 
to date in Al Anbar Province. Dr. Obaidi requested Embassy 
help arranging a meeting with thebetween IECI and Sunni 
leaders to discuss plans to decrease corruption fraud and and 
increase transparency during upcoming electionsthe busy 
political season. (NOTE: Our understanding is that the IECI 
has opened more voter registration centers in Anbar.  There 
is a need for more Sunni Arab political leaders talking to 
the election commission, and we scheduled such a meeting for 
August 23.) 
 
4.  (C/NF) Dr. Obaidi,s third concern was aObaidi expressed 
concern over the lack of Sunni party financial resources to 
fully participatepromote their cause in the elections. They 
warned that no Sunni political entity would be able to reach 
Sunni voters throughout the country.  PolCouns urged that 
these two interlocutors think about how to join with other 
Sunni Arab political forces to form a stronger coalition.  He 
reminded them of the success of the Shia List 169.  PolOffs 
suggested that any party that rejected violence could 
approach suggested the resources available to any political 
party, includingIRI and NDI for support.funding. But this 
requires their initiative and coordinated efforts to create a 
moderate coalition that rejects violence. 
They took the point and noted that Ayed Allawi is trying to 
build such a coalition.  Obeidi, however, warned that Allawi 
would have his own problems in Sunni areas; people would 
remember that Allawi ordered the attacks in the Fall of 2004 
against Samarra and Fallujah.  By contrast, they thought the 
nascent "Sunni People's Conference" that held a well-attended 
meeting in Baghdad in May under the sponsorship of the Sunni 
Waqf might provide an umbrella under which Sunni Arab 
political leaders could gather.  Obeidi and Lahibi 
highlighted that former Sunni Waqf leader Adnan Dulaimi would 
be an effective spokesman in the eyes of many Sunni Arabs. 
 &The Kurds can print ten thousand posters easily. We 
cannot.8 
5.  (C/NF) Comment: Obaidi and Anwar,s plea for a delay in a 
decision on federalism and more resources for Sunni parties 
tracks closely with conversations we held August 21 and 22 
with other Sunni Arab negotiators.These Sunni concerns are 
the same PolOff heard in meetings Aug 20 with a prominent 
newspaper editor and an influential University of Baghdad 
professor- as well as other Sunni leaders Aug 21 during a 
meeting with Ambassador KhalilzadThese points are often 
joined by arguments for sharing Iraqi resources at the 
national level and of the looming threat of : delay 
Federalism, share the Iraqi oil wealth equally, beware 
Iranian domination inof Iraq.  Their remarks about Sunni 
Arabs coming out to vote also tracks with what we hear from 
other contacts.  However, none of our interlocutors so far 
will hazard whether or not they will vote for the draft 
constitution and few will venture a guess about who will draw 
the most votes from Sunni Arab voters in December.  End 
Comment. 
 
 
 
Khalilzad