US embassy cable - 05DHAKA4151

UNCLAS DHAKA 004151 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR I/FW, B/G, IIP/G/NEA-SA, B/VOA/N (BANGLA SERVICE) STATE 
FOR SA/PAB, SA/PPD (LSCENSNY), SA/RA, INR/R/MR, AND PASS TO 
USAID FOR ANE/ASIA/SA/B 
 
CINCPAC FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR, J51 (LCDR FLETCHER), 
J45 (MAJ NICHOLLS) 
 
USARPAC FOR APOP-IM (MAJ STYNER) 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KMDR, OIIP, OPRC, KPAO, PREL, ETRD, PTER, ASEC, BG, OCII 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: IRAN; DHAKA 
 
 
SUMMARY: INDEPENDENT ENGLISH LANGUAGE NEWSPAPER "DAILY STAR" 
SAYS THE MOST VIABLE OPTION FOR THE WEST IN REGARD TO THE 
IRANIAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM IS TO RESUME CONSTRUCTIVE DIALOG 
WITH IRAN INSTEAD OF IMPOSING ECONOMIC SANCTIONS OR USING 
FORCE. 
----------------------- 
IRANIAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM 
------------------------ 
"NUCLEAR SHOWDOWN WITH IRAN" 
AN OP-ED PAGE ARTICLE IN INDEPENDENT ENGLISH LANGUAGE 
NEWSPAPER "DAILY STAR" OPINES (8/22): 
SYED MUAZZEM ALI 
WHAT ARE THE OPTIONS BEFORE THE EU TROIKA TO BREAK THE 
CURRENT DEADLOCK? EU WOULD LIKE TO PUT INTERNATIONAL 
PRESSURE ON IRAN TO BRING IT BACK FROM THE CURRENT 
ENRICHMENT PROGRAM. UNITED STATES, HOWEVER, IS ADVOCATING 
FOR TOUGHER ACTION AGAINST IRAN INCLUDING IMPOSITION OF 
ECONOMIC SANCTIONS BY THE UN SECURITY COUNCIL. PRESIDENT 
BUSH...EVEN HINTED AT THE POSSIBILITY OF USE OF FORCE 
AGAINST IRAN. 
IF THE WESTERN COUNTRIES DECIDE TO TAKE THE ISSUE TO THE UN 
SECURITY COUNCIL FOR IMPOSITION OF COMPREHENSIVE ECONOMIC 
SANCTIONS AGAINST IRAN, IT IS NOT CLEAR WHETHER THEY CAN 
MASTER SUPPORT OF OTHER COUNCIL MEMBERS, PARTICULARLY THE 
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES. 
EVEN IF THEY DO, CHINA AND RUSSIA, WHO HAVE ESTABLISHED LONG 
TERM TRADE AND ECONOMIC TIES WITH TEHRAN, COULD DECIDE TO 
VETO IN ORDER TO PROTECT THEIR NATIONAL INTERESTS. UN 
SECRETARY GENERAL KOFI ANNAN RECENTLY EXPRESSED HIS 
 
SIPDIS 
APPREHENSION THAT THIS COULD IN TURN PARALYZE THE SECURITY 
COUNCIL. 
FURTHERMORE, UNITED STATES HAD IMPOSED ITS OWN ECONOMIC 
SANCTIONS AGAINST IRAN MORE THAN TEN YEARS AGO. SO ANY FRESH 
UN SANCTION WOULD HAVE NO ADDITIONAL IMPACT ON THEM. 
HOWEVER, EU COUNTRIES ARE IRAN'S NUMBER ONE TRADING PARTNER. 
THEY ARE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON IRAN TO MEET THEIR LONG-TERM 
ENERGY REQUIREMENTS AND, IRAN PROVIDES A HUGE MARKET FOR 
THEIR INDUSTRIALIZED GOODS. ANY UN IMPOSED SANCTION WOULD 
SURELY SERIOUSLY AFFECT THESE MUTUALLY BENEFICIAL TIES. 
WASHINGTON IS HEAVILY BOGGED DOWN IN IRAQ AND ANY FULL SCALE 
MILITARY ACTION BY THEM AGAINST IRAN LOOKS UNLIKELY, THOUGH 
A BLITZKRIEG AERIAL ATTACK LIKE THE ISRAELI ATTACK AGAINST 
IRAQ IN 1982 CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER, UNLIKE IRAQ, IRAN 
HAS SEVERAL ATOMIC CENTERS SCATTERED ALL OVER THE COUNTRY 
AND IT WOULD BE IMPOSSIBLE TO KNOCK ALL OF THEM DOWN THROUGH 
AERIAL STRIKES. EVEN IF THE US SUCCEEDS, IRAN CAN REBUILD 
THEM WITHIN MONTHS SINCE SHE HAS BUILT THEM WITH HER OWN 
TECHNOLOGY AND MANPOWER. IF ANY MILITARY ACTION IS LAUNCHED 
AGAINST IRAN DESPITE THESE WEIGHTY CONSIDERATIONS, IT WOULD 
FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE REGION AND BEYOND. 
GIVEN THIS COMPLEX SCENARIO, THE MOST VIABLE OPTION SEEMS TO 
BE RESUMPTION OF DIALOGUE WITH IRAN. FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS, 
THE IAEA HAS BEEN ABLE TO GET SUBSTANTIAL DEGREE OF 
COOPERATION FROM IRAN. THIS PROCESS HAS TO BE SUSTAINED AND 
EXPANDED. SINCE IRAN IS AGREEABLE TO ADDITIONAL SAFEGUARDS, 
THE EU SHOULD ENCOURAGE IRAN TO EXTEND FULL COOPERATION TO 
IAEA SO THAT THE LATTER MAY CLOSELY MONITOR THE IRANIAN 
URANIUM ENRICHMENT PROGRAM AND ENSURE THAT THERE IS NO 
DIVERSION OF ENRICHED URANIUM TOWARDS MAKING NUCLEAR 
WEAPONS. 
ONE HAS TO KEEP IN MIND THAT IF IRAN IS PUSHED TO A 
SITUATION WHERE IT DECIDES TO LEAVE THE NPT REGIME LIKE 
NORTH KOREA, THEN THERE WILL BE NO CONTROL ON ITS NUCLEAR 
PROGRAM. NOW THAT THE US INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES HAVE REVISED 
THEIR EARLIER ASSESSMENT AND POINTED OUT THAT IRAN IS AT 
LEAST TEN YEARS AWAY FROM MAKING THE BOMB, IT IS ALL THE 
MORE REASON TO PURSUE A CONSTRUCTIVE DIALOGUE WITH IRAN AND 
PERSUADE IRAN TO ACCEPT CLOSER SURVEILLANCE BY IAEA. TEHRAN 
MAY NOT AGREE TO GIVE UP ITS NUCLEAR OPTIONS BUT IT HAS 
INDICATED ITS WILLINGNESS TO ACCEPT GREATER SAFEGUARDS IN 
RETURN FOR FULL NORMALIZATION OF TIES WITH THE WEST, 
ESPECIALLY THE US. 
 
CHAMMAS