US embassy cable - 05ALMATY3047

UNCLAS  ALMATY 003047 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CACEN (J. MUDGE), DRL/PHD (C. KUCHTA- 
HELBLING) 
USOSCE FOR R. BARBER 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KZ, 2005 Election, POLITICAL 
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS TO BE HELD IN 
DECEMBER 2005 
 
REF: Almaty 2985 
 
1. (SBU) Summary: The Constitutional Council of Kazakhstan 
announced that Presidential elections should be held on 
December 4, 2005.  The elections were previously scheduled 
for December 2006.  The Constitutional Council's ruling was 
in response to an inquiry from the Mazhilis.  The question 
of timing had provoked a great deal of public debate in 
recent months, as elections in 2006 would have given 
President Nazarbayev almost an eight-year term.  Once the 
Mazhilis confirms the date, nominations will be accepted 
until October 4.  Candidates must register by October 25. 
End Summary. 
 
------------------- 
A Decision, Finally 
------------------- 
 
2. (U) On August 19, the Constitutional Council announced 
that in accordance with Article 41 of the Constitution, 
presidential elections should be held on the first Sunday in 
December 2005.  The new president will be sworn in on 
January 11, 2006. 
 
3. (SBU) The ruling was issued in response to a July 8 
inquiry from a group of parliamentarians led by Valeriy 
Kotovich, one of the drafters of the controversial NGO laws. 
The parliamentarians questioned the GOK's assertions that 
elections should be held in December 2006 in order to comply 
with Article 94 of the Constitution.  They argued that 
Article 41 of the Constitution, which specifies a seven-year 
term for the president, should take precedence.  (Note: 
Nazarbayev was sworn in for his current term on January 20, 
1999.  December 2006 elections would have given him a term 
of almost eight years.  End note.)  Although it was widely 
believed that the Presidential Administration favored 
December 2005 elections, the Constitutional Council 
postponed its decision several times rather than ruling 
within the required one-month period. 
 
--------------------------- 
Nomination and Registration 
--------------------------- 
 
4. (U) Now that the Constitutional Council has issued its 
opinion, the Mazhilis (lower house of parliament) must 
officially call the elections.  After it reconvenes on 
September 1, it has until September 11 to adopt the 
necessary legislation.  It must comply with the Council's 
opinion and with the Constitution, which specifies that 
presidential elections are to be held on the first Sunday in 
December.  Once the Mazhilis officially sets the election 
date, nomination of candidates will be permitted until two 
months before election day, i.e. October 4.  Self-nomination 
is permitted.  (Note: The dates given below are approximate, 
based on post's interpretation of applicable Kazakhstani 
laws. End note.) 
 
5. (U) Once a candidate has submitted nomination 
registration materials, the Central Election Commission 
(CEC) has five days to determine the candidate's eligibility 
for office.  Article 41 (2) of the Constitution requires 
that the President be at least 40 years of age, have a 
"perfect command" of the Kazakh language, have lived in 
Kazakhstan for at least fifteen years and have no criminal 
record. 
 
6. (U) After the CEC certifies that a candidate is eligible, 
he/she then has five days to gather signatures supporting 
their candidacy.  Each candidate must provide petitions from 
"at least two-thirds" of the 16 oblast-level voting 
districts, i.e. eleven.  The petition for each oblast must 
contain the signatures of at least one percent of eligible 
voters in that oblast.  Candidates must also deposit the 
equivalent of $2,600 into a CEC account, and they and their 
spouses must file tax returns and property statements. 
 
7. (U) After completing the aforementioned steps, candidates 
will then have to register officially with the CEC.  The 
official registration period is expected to be October 4 - 
25.  The CEC is required to publish the names of registered 
candidates within seven days of registration.  Candidates 
who are not registered by the CEC have ten days to appeal 
the decision to the Supreme Court.  The court must rule on 
the appeal within ten days.  Thus, if a candidate were 
rejected at the last moment (October 25), he/she would have 
until November 4 to appeal to the Supreme Court, which would 
have to rule by November 14. If there is only one candidate 
registered by October 25, the registration period will be 
extended by 20 days, to November 14. 
 
---------------------------------- 
Campaigning, Election and Counting 
---------------------------------- 
 
8. (U) The electoral campaign will run from October 26 to 
December 2.  Local authorities will be required to announce 
the polling stations in their districts by November 24.  By 
law, all campaigning and political activities must cease by 
6:00 p.m. local time on December 2.  The election will take 
place on December 4, with polling places open from 7:00 a.m. 
to 8:00 p.m.  Local commissions have discretion to open as 
early as 6:00 a.m. and close as late as 10:00 p.m. 
 
9. (U) Local commissions have up to two days to report their 
results to the Central Election Commission, and thus the CEC 
must have the counts by December 7.  The CEC has seven days 
from the closing of the election (i.e. until December 11) to 
confirm the results and ten days (i.e. until December 14) to 
announce the election results.  Legislation passed in 2005 
prohibits rallies and demonstrations from the end of 
campaigning (December 2) until the announcements of final 
election results. 
 
10. (U) Candidates can challenge the election results to the 
Supreme Court within ten days of the CEC posting the 
results.  The court will have ten days to rule on any 
challenges. 
 
11. (U) In the event no candidate receives 50 percent of the 
vote, Article 41 (4) of the Constitution specifies that a 
runoff election between the top two candidates must be held 
within two months.  If the December 4 election is found 
invalid or if a runoff fails to determine a clear winner, 
the CEC would have to conduct a new election. 
 
12. (U) According to Article 42 (2) of the Constitution, the 
presidential inauguration is held the second Wednesday in 
January, i.e. January 11, 2006. 
 
13. (U) Minimize for Dushanbe considered. 
 
ASQUINO 
 
 
NNNN