US embassy cable - 05MANILA3862

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANILA 003862 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/PMBS, EAP/PD, INR/EAP, INR/B 
NSC FOR GREEN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/10/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PINS, PINR, SOCI, KCOR, RP 
SUBJECT: CABINET SECRETARY IN DISCUSSIONS WITH ESTRADA 
CAMP; OPPOSITION CONFIDENT ABOUT IMPEACHMENT NUMBERS? 
 
REF: A. MANILA 3697 
 
     B. MANILA 3593 
     C. MANILA 3458 
     D. MANILA 3391 
 
Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Joseph L. Novak 
for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  Michael Defensor, Secretary of Environment 
and Natural Resources, has confirmed that he has been engaged 
in talks with supporters of former president Estrada.  The 
exact scope of the talks is unclear, but Defensor, claiming 
that he is acting on his own volition, says the talks support 
"national reconciliation."  The Estrada camp continues to 
underscore that it will not cooperate unless Estrada is 
released from house arrest.  This last condition would be 
politically hazardous for Arroyo to even think about and 
there is no indication that she is about to agree to it.  In 
other news, a close contact has told us that the Opposition 
may be edging closer to the number of endorsements needed for 
a referral of its impeachment complaint to the Senate. 
Hearings into the impeachment charges continue on August 23. 
End Summary. 
 
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Rapprochement? 
-------------- 
 
2.  (U) In August 19 remarks to the press, Secretary Defensor 
confirmed that he has been engaged in talks with supporters 
of former president Joseph Estrada.  The exact scope of the 
talks is unclear, but Defensor -- claiming that he is acting 
on his own volition -- said the talks support "national 
reconciliation."  The Estrada camp continues to underscore 
that it will not cooperate unless Estrada is released from 
house arrest.  (Note:  Estrada has been in jail and 
subsequently under house arrest since 2001.  He is being 
tried on charges of plunder and corruption.  End Note.) 
 
3.  (U) President Arroyo reiterated the theme of "national 
reconciliation" in brief remarks made in front of a large 
crowd gathered in Manila on August 20 in honor of Brother 
Mike Velarde, the founder of El Shaddai, a large Catholic 
group.  After Velarde said he was willing "to mediate" 
between Arroyo and Estrada in remarks to the crowd, Arroyo 
went on to state:  "As Brother Mike said, let's look for a 
formula that works and is acceptable so that we would all be 
united as soon as possible.  As President of the Philippines, 
I am ready to take steps and I call on my enemies for us to 
unite so that our politics would not deteriorate and so that 
our economy would progress."  Arroyo did not make any remarks 
specific to Estrada.  She had left the stage by the time that 
Estrada arrived to greet Velarde.  (Note:  The 
"Sandiganbayan" Anti-Graft Court had granted Estrada 
permission to leave house arrest for 12 hours so that he 
could undergo a medical examination in Manila and attend part 
of the Velarde event.  He was under police escort at all 
times.  End Note.) 
 
4.  (C) When asked about Defensor's efforts, Malacanang has 
made clear that it is willing to reach out to opponents as 
long as "justice is not sacrificed."   This appears to be a 
signal that Malacanang is unwilling to countenance any effort 
to try to release Estrada from house arrest perhaps by trying 
to get him bail.  In an August 22 meeting with poloff, Ramon 
"Eki" Cardenas, an Estrada adviser, confirmed that talks were 
taking place between the two camps.  He added that he did not 
think they would come to fruition because he did not believe 
that Malacanang would allow Estrada to get out from under 
house arrest.  (Note:  There is considerable debate as to 
whether Malacanang could secure Estrada's release even if it 
wanted to:  plunder -- the most serious of the charges he 
faces -- is a capital and thus non-bailable offense. 
Estrada, nonetheless, has filed a request for bail.  Defensor 
has since walked back comments he earlier made to the effect 
that perhaps Estrada could be released into someone else's 
recognizance, which he said might be a legal solution.  End 
Note.) 
 
---------------------------- 
Optimism in Opposition Camp? 
---------------------------- 
 
5.  (C) In other news, Ronnie Zamorra, an Opposition 
congressman closely involved in impeachment issues, told 
Acting Pol/C on August 19 that the Opposition was edging 
closer to the number of endorsements needed for a referral of 
its impeachment complaint to the Senate.  Zamorra asserted 
that the Opposition now has 74 of the 79 endorsements needed 
(one-third of the total House membership of 236).   Zamorra 
predicted that the Opposition could reach the 79 figure in 
the next week or two "despite Malacanang's best efforts to 
fight us."  When Acting Pol/C noted that the last Opposition 
announcement on the matter placed the total at about 52 (ref 
b), he remarked that that was the case two weeks ago, but 
that the opposition continues to gather signatures, including 
from House representatives in the President's coalition. 
Zamorra said he had no plans to announce the latest total 
until there were 79 or more signatures, asserting that if he 
published the names "Malacanang will only try to bribe them 
to retract."  (Note:  A local newspaper reported on August 20 
that the Opposition had 67 signatures.  End Note.) 
 
6.  (U) Zamorra confirmed that hearings into the impeachment 
charges would recommence on August 23.  The Opposition hoped 
that the matter of which complaint would  be reviewed could 
be settled at that time (ref a).  (Note:  The Majority wants 
to review a complaint filed by a private citizen, which was 
filed before that of the Opposition.  The Opposition believes 
that its amended complaint must be taken up.  End Note.) 
 
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Comment 
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7.  (C) Trying to spring Estrada from house arrest would be 
politically hazardous for Arroyo even to think about. 
Estrada is widely and accurately seen as corrupt (even his 
supporters admit he played things close to the edge of the 
law), and civil society and good government types would rip 
into her unmercifully if she tried to help him out of his 
legal problems.  In any case, there is no indication that she 
is about to agree to try to release him.  Zamorra has made 
previous claims that the Opposition was close to the numbers 
needed for a Senate referral -- and those claims did not pan 
out.  However, he is a well-connected contact, which is why 
his recent comments are worth flagging. 
 
Visit Embassy Manila's Classified SIPRNET website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eap/manila/index. cfm 
 
You can also access this site through the State Department's 
Classified SIPRNET website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/ 
 
JOHNSON