US embassy cable - 05TELAVIV5137

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 005137 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/16/2015 
TAGS: PREL, MARR, MASS, PARM, KPAL, KWBG, PGOV, PINR, EG, IS, GOI EXTERNAL, GAZA DISENGAGEMENT 
SUBJECT: A/S WELCH'S MEETING WITH ISRAELI MOD'S GILAD 
FOCUSES ON BORDER GUARD AGREEMENT, DEVELOPING RELATIONS 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Daniel C. Kurtzer.  Reasons: 1.4 (b, d). 
 
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SUMMARY 
======= 
 
1. (S) Israeli Defense Ministry Political Security Director 
Amos Gilad confirmed to visiting NEA A/S Welch and Ambassador 
Kurtzer August 16 that Egypt and Israel had reached a general 
agreement on the deployment of 750 Egyptian Border Guards 
along the Egypt-Gaza border.  Israeli DefMin Mofaz is 
expected to present the draft agreement to the Israeli 
cabinet for approval next week.  Though not legally required, 
PM Sharon has elected to present it to the Knesset for 
approval as well.  Gilad said that, as a result of the 
negotiations on the agreement with the Egyptians over the 
last 15 months, relations between the two countries have 
improved somewhat.  END SUMMARY. 
 
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UPDATE ON AGREEMENT TO DEPLOY EGYPTIAN BORDER GUARDS 
============================================= ======= 
 
2. (S) Gilad updated A/S Welch, Ambassador Kurtzer and 
General Ward on the agreement reached by the GOI and Egyptian 
Government to deploy 750 Egyptian Border Guards along the 
Egypt-Gaza border.  The discussion on the deployment of 
Egyptian Border Guards lasted 15 months.  Gilad clarified 
that negotiations were difficult and lengthy. 
 
3. (S) Gilad said the Egyptians also wanted to make the 
agreement very vague.  According to Gilad, every time 
agreement was reached on a particular set of issues, the 
Egyptians would walk it back at their next meeting.  Gilad 
said discussing details took a long time.  The agreement that 
has emerged is a "protocol" that meets approval with Israel's 
intelligence services and the IDF, and which will be 
presented to the Knesset for approval.  Gilad said that the 
Israeli Attorney General advised PM Sharon that there was no 
need to bring the agreement before the Knesset, but that PM 
Sharon insists that it happen in accordance with a deal he 
made with MK Steinitz.  He expects DefMin Mofaz to present 
the agreement to the Cabinet next week.  After the Cabinet 
approves, it can be presented to the Knesset.  Gilad said the 
Egyptian Border Guards are ready to deploy along the 
Gaza-Egypt border, but would not deploy during Israel's Gaza 
disengagement and until Knesset approval of the agreement. 
 
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SIDE-LETTER ON WEAPONS TO BE TURNED OVER TO EGYPTIANS 
============================================= ======== 
 
4. (S) Gilad said he talked with the Egyptians about 46 
advisers that the Egyptians will send to the Palestinian 
Authority, including their mission, names, and the equipment 
they will supply to the Palestinians.  Gilad handed a list of 
the approved equipment over to General Ward, who 
characterized it as a good account. 
 
5. (S) Gilad said the Israelis had asked Egypt for a side 
letter of assurance that military equipment would not be 
allowed into Gaza without coordination with Israel.  This is 
needed to satisfy Knesset objections.  Gilad said he will 
deliver a draft of the side letter to the Egyptians for their 
review as soon as possible, and hopes he will receive an 
answer by Thursday, August 18. 
 
6. (S) A/S Welch explained that if the Israeli side wants 
Egyptian assurances regarding the provision of lethal 
equipment to Gaza, the language must be drawn up in such a 
way that the Egyptians cannot feel that they will be held 
responsible for extraterritorial commercial deals (e.g., by 
third-party brokers supplying the Palestinians from other 
countries).  It would be unreasonable to expect the Egyptians 
to accept responsibility for brokers they cannot control. 
Gilad took the point. 
 
============================================= ======== 
NEGOTIATIONS HAVE HELPED RELATIONS WITH THE EGYPTIANS 
============================================= ======== 
 
7. (S) Gilad suggested that as a result of negotiations over 
the Border Guards agreement, relations with the Egyptians 
have improved to the point of being "very excellent."  Gilad 
said Israel's relations with Suleiman and the Egyptian Army, 
which "in the past have been so poor," have developed "in a 
significant way."  He thought the communication channel that 
had developed would continue:  "Sometimes, we talk to them 
five times a day."  He recounted as a positive example a 
situation in which the Egyptians stopped terrorist rocket 
attacks into Israel based on a request from the Israeli side. 
 In Gilad's view, talks with Egyptian Field Marshal Tantawi 
and Suleiman have had value.  He indicated that Israel may do 
more to improve relations between the Egyptian and Israeli 
armies. 
8. (S) Ambassador Kurtzer encouraged maintaining the channel 
with the Egyptians, observing that concrete achievements can 
add up if both sides agree to stay away from thornier, 
symbolic issues.  A/S Welch suggested that if Tantawi feels 
that Israel genuinely wants to help him, it will pay off. 
 
9. (S) Gilad noted that GOI assessments of the Egyptian 
military look at Egypt's capabilities, not intentions, and 
rely on intelligence sources due to what he described as an 
absence of relations with Egypt:  "Nobody in our IDF knows 
Egypt."  Gilad wondered aloud if it might be possible for the 
U.S. and Israel to exchange information on Egypt.  A/S Welch 
suggested Israel need not worry about Egyptian military 
capabilities as (a) Egypt spends around two percent of its 
GDP on defense, low by regional standards; (b) the Egyptian 
army is not mobile; and (c) less than one-third of Egypt's 
military aid from the U.S. goes towards acquiring new 
military equipment, and that value is declining due to 
inflation and other commitments.  Gilad took the points, but 
expressed concern about the future of Egypt and President 
Mubarak.  He said, "It looks like Mubarak might end his 
career.  His son will not succeed him, and Omar Suleiman will 
not serve as his deputy." 
 
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GILAD: EGYPTIANS MORE CONCERNED ABOUT TERRORISM THAN DAHLAN 
============================================= ============== 
 
10. (S) Gilad observed that in the last set of Israel-Egypt 
negotiations, Gaza-West Bank passage improvement was not 
mentioned.  He said the Egyptians do not like Palestinian 
Authority Civic Affairs Minister Mohammed Dahlan because he 
claims he does not want Israelis in Rafah.  Gilad also 
explained that the Egyptians were caught off guard and 
shocked by the recent terror attacks in Taba and Sharm El 
Sheik.  A/S Welch replied that terrorism in Sinai is a "big 
problem" for Egypt.  The Egyptians, he said, have been 
focused on the Nile delta and upper Egypt.  The recent terror 
attacks against Egypt might work to Israel's advantage in the 
long run because they could encourage cooperation.  Gilad 
agreed and hoped that developments might encourage Egypt to 
see the need to conclude the agreement on the provision of 
weapons to Gaza the week of August 21 or shortly thereafter. 
 
11. (U) This cable was cleared by Assistant Secretary David 
Welch. 
 
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KURTZER