US embassy cable - 05GUAYAQUIL1039

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 GUAYAQUIL 001039 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, EC, Elections 2006 
SUBJECT: GUAYAQUIL'S LATEST PRESIDENTIAL CONTENDER 
 
REF: 04 GUAYAQUIL 01514 
 
1.  (SBU) SUMMARY:  Having all but faded away after years of 
existence, the Concentration of Popular Forces party (CFP) is 
making a last-ditch effort to save itself by naming Jaime 
Damerval as its candidate for the 2006 presidential 
elections.  An outspoken Minister of Government under Lucio 
Gutierrez, Damerval is respected but resented in Guayaquil. 
Memories (and grudges) are long here, and his much-publicized 
confrontation with Mayor Jaime Nebot over the city's handling 
of security (reftel) will likely hurt him in the city. 
Nonetheless, the CFP hopes to increase his chances by 
courting the support of the Ecuadorian Roldosista Party of 
exiled ex-president Abdala Bucaram (PRE).  In a conversation 
with PolOff, Damerval expressed concern that the Bolivarian 
movement may present some obstacles, particularly if leaders 
tap former MinFin Rafael Correa as their candidate.  End 
summary. 
 
THE CFP'S RENAISSANCE 
--------------------- 
 
2.  (U) Founded in the early 1940's, the CFP's real heyday 
began under the leadership of Asaad Bucaram (uncle of PRE's 
leader Abdala).  An immigrant from Lebanon, Asaad rose to 
legendary status in local politics in the 1970s.  He posed 
such a threat to the traditional ruling classes that they 
blocked his run at the presidency by passing a law preventing 
foreign-born citizens from attaining president's office. 
Soon after, the party's power peaked and the final blow came 
when a faction of Roldosista supporters broke off in the 
early 1980s to support the younger Bucaram.  Though but a 
sliver of their former incarnation, the CFP has managed to 
stay on the electoral rolls and currently has one member in 
Congress (Jorge Montero from Loja).  Despite their poor 
standing, in many circles along the coast, the CFP still 
benefits from Asaad's relatively untarnished reputation. 
 
"I'M JUST WHAT ECUADOR NEEDS" 
----------------------------- 
 
3.  (SBU) In a recent meeting with PolOff, Damerval expounded 
on the party's strategy to recoup its former prominence and 
avoid political extinction.  He claimed he accepted the CFP's 
invitation because he believes himself to be an ideal 
candidate, with an upstanding reputation and unattachment to 
any formal political affiliations.  Perhaps even more 
compelling, he said, was his proven track record as a vocal 
opponent of the PSC.  Unlike former VP Leon Roldos, ("so 
timid that if he does make it to Carondelet it will be 
without ever having spoken out about anything or anyone"), 
Damerval said he would take stands on even the most 
contentious issues. 
 
4.  (SBU) Although he does not plan to truly campaign for 
another six months, he has begun working with the CFP on an 
overall strategy.  Their plan is to revive the party from the 
ashes by bringing PRE followers back in to the fold.  As the 
"mother of the PRE," the CFP is already attracting 
disillusioned PRE followers who have given up on Abdala 
Bucaram ever returning, he said.  PRE leaders themselves seem 
to be of the same opinion.  They recently approached the CFP 
and offered a vice presidential candidate, sealing the two 
party's alliance.  Damerval said his early announcement was 
an effort to break the cycle wherein only two coastal 
candidates were discussed: Roldos and banana king Alvaro 
Noboa. 
 
POSSIBLE BOLIVARIAN MOVEMENT CANDIDATE? 
--------------------------------------- 
 
5.  (SBU) Damerval is not concerned about either Roldos or 
Noboa as competitors.  However, he said he was troubled about 
the rise of the "Bolivarian" movement in Guayaquil.  While 
the movement's leader Rene Vargas is based in Manabi, he is 
really stirring things up in Guayaquil, with plenty of help 
from Carlos Solorzano (former Supreme Court justice who was 
one of the coup-plotting triumvirate that overthrew former 
president Jamil Mahuad in 2000).  According to Damerval, the 
Bolivarians have already approached Correa--whom he also sees 
as heavily involved in the movement--about running for 
president.  Vargas and Solorzano do not necessarily think 
that Correa would win, he added.  However, they believe 
Correa would generate a lot of attention to the Bolivarian 
movement and their agenda, perhaps even disrupting the free 
trade agreement with the U.S.  Damerval had participated in a 
panel discussion with Correa last week and called Correa's 
speech  "totally Chavista." 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
6.  (SBU) The CFP's strategy to pick off PRE supporters could 
give it the boost they need to stave off oblivion.  Its 
populist platform will likely resonate with some coastal 
Ecuadorians, dividing the vote there.  Damerval retains his 
well deserved reputation as a fierce critic of the PSC and 
its ossified leader, Leon Febres Cordero, which was enhanced 
since he locked horns with Febres Cordero's erstwhile 
protg, Guayaquil mayor Nebot.  The PSC will seek to exploit 
Damerval's move to quash Nebot's plans to arm private 
security forces in the city, which provoked the popular 
`Marcha Blanca,' in which Nebot declared himself the defender 
of Guayaquil's historic independence.  While a force to be 
reckoned with, Damerval lacks the charisma to connect with 
the common man. 
 
7.  (SBU) Thus far, the only other coastal pre-candidate is 
Alvaro Noboa, whom Damerval dismissed as nothing more than a 
"screeching novelty."  For his part, Roldos seems to be 
backing away from his own candidacy, cloaking his pre- 
candidacy in the guise of a national reform project.  We 
certainly expect many more coastal candidates will eventually 
enter the fray before this is over (the campaign period does 
not formally begin until the latter half of 2006). 
 
JOHNSON 
N