US embassy cable - 05ALMATY2985

C O N F I D E N T I A L  ALMATY 002985 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN (J. MUDGE), DRL/PHD (C. KUCHTA-HELBLING) 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/18/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PINR, KZ, 2005 Election, POLITICAL 
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: TUYAKBAY ON HARASSMENT OF OPPOSITION 
 
REF: A. ALMATY 1870 
     B. WHITE HOUSE 7221805 
     C. ASTANA 6 
 
Classified By: CDA Mark L. Asquino, reasons 1.4 (B) and (D), 
 
1. (C) Summary:  Kazakhstani authorities are carrying out a 
large-scale campaign to harass and intimidate the opposition, 
according to "For a Just Kazakhstan" leader Zharmakhan 
Tuyakbay.  Measures have included surveillance, provocation, 
violence, and threats/intimidation.  Although Tuyakbay's 
organization has been registered on the national level, 
delays in registration of its regional branches may prevent 
it from nominating a presidential candidate.  The opposition 
leader claimed that the public strongly supports "For a Just 
Kazakhstan" and would take to the streets if GOK harassment 
went too far.  Tuyakbay urged the U.S. to speak out about the 
abuses.  End summary. 
 
2. (SBU) CDA met with "For a Just Kazakhstan" (FJK) leader 
Zharmakhan Tuyakbay at the latter's request on August 16 to 
discuss recent harassment of the organization.  Amirzhan 
Kosanov, previously of former PM Kazhegeldin's RNPK party, 
and POEC chief also participated. 
 
------------------------------------- 
Harassment of "For a Just Kazakhstan" 
------------------------------------- 
 
3. (C) Tuyakbay described what he termed a broad campaign of 
measures by the GOK designed to intimidate and control the 
opposition in the run-up to presidential elections, widely 
expected to be called for December 2005.  He related constant 
KNB surveillance, harassment of FJK leaders and members, and 
the use of blackmail and threats to discourage attendance at 
FJK events.  Although the situation had improved somewhat 
after the Ambassador issued a statement condemning incidents 
in May and voiced U.S. concerns to the FM (Ref A), it had 
deteriorated in recent weeks.  Kosanov commented that it was 
"no accident" that presidential son-in-law Rakhat Aliyev had 
been brought back from his job as OSCE Ambassador in Vienna 
and appointed Deputy Foreign Minister in advance of the 
elections.  (Note: In an August 12 meeting with POEC chief, 
FJK leaders Oraz Zhandosov and Altynbek Sarsenbaiuly 
explicitly linked Aliyev's return to the renewed harassment 
of FJK.  They said that Aliyev associate Serik Nugmanov had 
been appointed Deputy Minister of Justice in order to carry 
out his directives.  End note.)  Tuyakbay sees the harassment 
as the GOK's retribution for his movement's willingness to 
"speak the truth" about corruption and misuse of power. 
 
4. (SBU) FJK issued a public statement on August 11 detailing 
incidences of harassment.  Local leaders have been detained 
or arrested in Kostanay, Atyrau, and Aktau.  Groups of thugs 
tried to disrupt Tuyakbay's public meetings in Atyrau and 
Aktau.  The traffic police tried to block participants from 
reaching a meeting in Kostanay.  In several cities, the 
management of venues that had been rented for the meetings 
locked the doors and refused FJK access at the last minute, 
citing pressure from "above."  FJK activist Marzhan 
Aspandiyarova was beaten by police during an August 2 protest 
at the Almaty akimat over illegal demolition of homes. 
Tuyakbay told the CDA that Aspandiyarova had been called and 
asked to attend the protest by provocateurs in the crowd.  He 
singled out as particularly egregious the August 11 arrest in 
Aktau of FJK activist and True Ak Zhol regional leader 
Janibek Kozhyk on charges of organizing an illegal meeting. 
As FJK was registered by the MOJ on August 2, and the meeting 
was held in a restaurant rather than in public, Tuyakbay and 
Kosanov have no idea what law could be cited to argue that 
the event was illegal. 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
Nomination of Presidential Candidate in Doubt 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
5. (C) Tuyakbay noted that even though the GOK had registered 
FJK, delays in registering the movement's regional 
organizations could prevent it from nominating a presidential 
candidate.  He explained that Kazakhstani election law 
requires a party to choose its nominee at a general meeting 
attended by representatives from at least two-thirds of all 
oblasts.  FJK had submitted registration applications for its 
regional organizations to the MOJ on July 21.  Instead of 
rendering a decision within the required ten-day period, the 
MOJ had delayed its decision.  Tuyakbay stressed that if 
two-thirds of the regional organizations are not registered 
by September 11, FJK will not be able to nominate a 
candidate.  "That person," he said, "would have to run as an 
independent candidate instead." 
 
6. (C) The FJK leader expressed confidence that if genuinely 
E 
 
fair elections were held, Nazarbayev would not win.  People 
are fed up with corruption.  Continuing to avoid naming 
himself as the challenger, presumably in deference to 
election laws, Tuyakbay told the charg that public support 
for FJK is strong.  When provocateurs attempt to disrupt 
FJK's meetings, "the people" stand up to protect him.   He 
claimed that Kazakhstani authorities were not confident that 
Nazarbayev could win a fair election, and for that reason 
were trying to handpick suitable opponents such as perennial 
candidate Ganiy Kasimov.  (Note: Ak Zhol leader Alikhan 
Baimenov, the only prominent opposition politician not in 
FJK, is also expected by many to run.  End note.) 
 
7. (C) The GOK was already working to bring in as many 
"sympathetic" observers as possible for December presidential 
elections, according to Tuyakbay.  This included experts from 
the U.S. and Europe.  (Note: In the August 12 meeting with 
POEC chief, Sarsenbaiuly claimed the GOK was delaying the 
announcement of elections in part to prevent the OSCE from 
being able to organize a full observation mission.  End 
note.)  Tuyakbay claimed that Kazakhstani authorities had 
also launched an effort to place anti-American stories in the 
Kazakh-language press, including several highly critical 
articles about Tuyakbay's May trip to the U.S. 
 
----------------------------------- 
People "Ready to Go to the Streets" 
----------------------------------- 
 
8. (C) Tuyakbay claims that the public is enraged by what 
they see as an orchestrated GOK campaign to hinder FJK's 
ability to organize, and that many members have urged him to 
organize public protests.  He has discouraged this course of 
action so far, but told the CDA that if there is a 
particularly egregious provocation "the people will take to 
the streets on their own."  If that happens, Tuyakbay said, 
he and the other leaders of FJK "will go with them."  He said 
that the public does not trust the authorities; numerous news 
stories about GOK purchases of weapons have convinced the 
public that the authorities will "stop at nothing" to stay in 
power.  (Note:  Post has seen several news stories about the 
GOK purchasing riot gear and means of non-lethal force such 
as rubber bullets and water cannon.  End note.) 
 
----------------------- 
U.S. Urged to Speak Out 
----------------------- 
 
9. (C) Tuyakbay predicted that the GOK would continue to use 
its "full arsenal" of falsification, blackmail, threats, and 
violence against "For a Just Kazakhstan" unless the 
international community speaks out.  He added that 
Kazakhstani authorities might even resort to "extreme 
measures":  "if there is no person, there is no problem." 
Tuyakbay urged the U.S. to speak out forcefully about what is 
happening today in Kazakhstan, and to push for fair 
elections. 
 
10. (C) The charg told Tuyakbay that in his recent letter to 
Nazarbayev (Ref B), President Bush had underscored the need 
for fair elections and an end to pressure on civil society. 
The U.S. is cognizant of what is happening in Kazakhstan and 
will continue to press our concerns with the GOK. 
 
11. (C) Kosanov added that Tuyakbay also needs a guarantee of 
his personal security.  He urged the U.S. to keep a close eye 
on the candidate registration process to ensure that it is 
fair and transparent.  He also noted that FJK hopes to be 
able to obtain training from NDI or IRI for its election 
observers.  If Tuyakbay succeeds in registering as a 
candidate, Kosanov added, fair access to the media would also 
be critical. 
 
12. (C) Tuyakbay highlighted the fact there are very few 
opposition representatives on election commissions as one of 
the most serious problems with the electoral system.  (Note: 
According to Zhandosov, during the fall 2004 parliamentary 
elections only 200 of the 9500 commission members around the 
country were members of opposition parties.)  The FJK leader 
said that the movement would propose amendments to the 
election law to permit a more equitable distribution of 
seats.  He was doubtful it would be adopted. 
 
----------------------- 
Possible Travel to U.S. 
----------------------- 
 
13. (SBU)  Although Tuyakbay did not raise the issue in his 
meeting with the charge, Sarsenbaiuly informed POEC chief on 
August 12 that the FJK's Tuyakbay  was planning to return to 
Washington in September.  He would be accompanied by two or 
three other leaders from the movement, and hoped for 
 
high-level meetings at the State Department (including the 
Secretary) and elsewhere. 
 
SIPDIS 
 
14. (C) Tuyakbay also steered clear of discussion of a story 
circulating on the Internet that he had hired U.S. political 
consultant John Weaver to help with his presidential 
campaign.  The article, entitled "Kazakhstani Opposition 
Orders Revolution in the U.S. for a Million Bucks," contained 
a copy of a reputed letter from Weaver.  Sarsenbaiuly 
confirmed on August 12 that Tuyakbay had met with four 
different consultants during his May trip to Washington, and 
that the letter represented Weaver's proposal.  He claimed 
that the Kazakhstani special services had intercepted the 
email and given the information to the press.  According to 
Sarsenbaiuly, Tuyakbay decided not to hire any of the 
consultants after unspecified "difficulties" arose.  An 
August 17 article in pro-government "Ekspress K" claimed that 
hiring a foreign consultant would violate Article 27 of the 
election law, as modified by the recent national security 
amendments (ref C), which forbids foreigners from helping or 
hindering the nomination or elec 
tion of any candidate. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
15. (C) While Tuyakbay is definitely exaggerating the amount 
of public support FJK enjoys, and the lengths to which the 
GOK might go to neutralize the opposition, what he said about 
the harassment his organization is experiencing seems to us 
both accurate and factual.  An August 18 announcement by the 
Almaty procuracy that Tuyakbay's trips around the country 
constituted illegal campaigning underscores the degree of 
official scrutiny of FJK's activities.  Taken together with 
the August 14 robbery/vandalism of the Kazakhstani 
International Bureau for Human Rights (details to follow 
septel), the NGO investigations, and repressive legislation, 
Tuyakbay's account paints a picture of a Kazakhstani ruling 
circle unwilling to tolerate the slightest risk of losing its 
grip on power. 
ASQUINO 
 
 
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