US embassy cable - 05PARIS5563

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 005563 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPT FOR INR/R/MR; IIP/RW; IIP/RNY; BBG/VOA; IIP/WEU; AF/PA; 
EUR/WE /P/SP; D/C (MCCOO); EUR/PA; INR/P; INR/EUC; PM; OSC ISA 
FOR ILN; NEA; WHITE HOUSE FOR NSC/WEUROPE; DOC FOR ITA/EUR/FR 
AND PASS USTR/PA; USINCEUR FOR PAO; NATO/PA; MOSCOW/PA; 
ROME/PA; USVIENNA FOR USDEL OSCE. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, FR 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT - MIDDLE EAST - GAZA PULLOUT 
IRAN 
PARIS - THURSDAY, AUGUST 18, 2005 
 
 
(A) SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT: 
 
MIDDLE EAST - GAZA PULLOUT 
IRAN 
 
B) SUMMARY OF COVERAGE: 
 
LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION HEADLINES "GAZA: NO MORE SETTLERS" 
AND DEVOTES A NUMBER OF REPORTS TO THE EXPULSION OF THE MORE 
RECALCITRANT SETTLERS, EMPHASIZING THAT THE DISENGAGEMENT IS 
MOVING MORE QUICKLY AND WITH LITTLE VIOLENCE. IN HIS EDITORIAL 
PATRICK SABATIER BEGINS BY SAYING THAT "THE WAR OF THE 
SETTLERS WILL NOT TAKE PLACE." SABATIER ENDS HIS COMMENTARY 
WITH A NOTE ABOUT SHARON'S AND ABBAS'S WEAKENED DOMESTIC 
POSITIONS AND THEIR NEED FOR HELP FROM THE INTERNATIONAL 
COMMUNITY. (SEE PART C) ALL OTHER FRONT PAGES ARE DEVOTED TO 
THE COLOMBIAN CHARTER THAT CRASHED IN VENEZUELA WITH OVER 150 
FRENCH TOURISTS RETURNING HOME TO MARTINIQUE. AIRLINE SAFETY 
ARTICLES ABOUND, WITH LE FIGARO'S HEADLINE IMPLYING THE 
AIRCRAFT WAS "A DUMP" POORLY MAINTAINED WITHOUT PROPERLY 
TRAINED PERSONNEL. THE WEST CARIBBEAN AIRLINE IS FAULTED FOR 
CUTTING CORNERS, LACKING FINANCIAL TRANSPARENCY AND 
OVERWORKING ITS PERSONNEL. THE EDITORIAL SUGGESTS THE NEED FOR 
A BLACK LIST OF DANGEROUS AIRLINES AS WELL AS A "BLUE SEAL" OF 
APPROVAL REWARDING SAFE AIRLINES. 
 
IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S ATTACKS IN BAGHDAD, LE FIGARO 
COMMENTS: "THIS IS THE DEADLIEST ATTACK FOR AUGUST, AN ATTACK 
WHICH THE TERRORISTS SEEM TO HAVE ORCHESTRATED WELL. THIS NEW 
CYCLE OF VIOLENCE, WHICH COULD GET WORSE, IS TAKING PLACE IN A 
LANDSCAPE OF POLITICAL TURMOIL, WITH THE VARIOUS RELIGIOUS 
GROUPS UNABLE TO AGREE ON THE NEW IRAQ. IF NO AGREEMENT CAN BE 
FOUND BY NEXT MONDAY, THE PARLIAMENT WILL HAVE TO BE DISSOLVED 
AND NEW ELECTIONS ORGANIZED." 
 
MOSCOW'S AMBIGUOUS POSITION TOWARDS IRAN IS ANALYZED IN LE 
FIGARO (SEE PART C). LE FIGARO ALSO INTERVIEWS CONFLICT EXPERT 
GERARD CHALIAND, AUTHOR OF "IRAQ: FROM ONE WAR TO ANOTHER." 
CHALIAND DISCUSSES THE BROADER MIDDLE EAST INITIATIVE, IRAQ, 
IRAN'S ROLE IN THE REGION AND INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM: "THE 
U.S. WAR MACHINE IS NOT CAPABLE OF CONTAINING THE IRAQI 
INSURRECTION. THE ANNOUNCEMENT OF THE LIKELY TROOP DRAW DOWN 
IS MORE A DOMESTIC POLITICAL MANEUVER THAN A REFLECTION OF 
CONDITIONS ON THE GROUND. BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE AT LEAST TWO 
YEARS FOR THE IRAQI FORCES TO BE ABLE TO TAKE OVER FROM THE 
U.S. MILITARY. IN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE BROADER MIDDLE EAST 
INITIATIVE, SOME SUCCESSES OF AMERICAN DIPLOMACY CANNOT BE 
DISMISSED, SUCH AS THE TOPPLING OF SADDAM HUSSEIN, HOLDING 
ELECTIONS IN IRAQ, AND INDIRECTLY - SYRIA'S WITHDRAWAL FROM 
LEBANON. HOWEVER, IRAN REMAINS THE NUMBER ONE PROBLEM IN THE 
REGION; THE REGIME IS DETERMINED TO ACQUIRE NUCLEAR WEAPONS 
AND ITS MOVEMENT TOWARD MAKING ITSELF A SORT OF NUCLEAR 
SANCTUARY APPEARS UNSTOPPABLE.  THE SITUATION IN AFGHANISTAN 
IS MEDIOCRE. ECONOMIC CONDITIONS THERE DEPEND TO A GREAT 
EXTENT ON THE POPPY INDUSTRY AND THE PROMISED RECONSTRUCTION 
IS LONG IN COMING. IN EAST AND CENTRAL ASIA, WHAT THE U.S. 
WANTS IS A WEAK RUSSIA IN ORDER TO AVOID A RUSSIAN-CHINESE 
ALLIANCE HOSTILE TO U.S. HEGEMONY. IN INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM 
WHAT MUST BE NOTED IS SCARCE NUMBER OF ATTACKS SINCE 9/11. THE 
TRUTH IS THAT MANY ATTACKS HAVE BEEN THWARTED. IT IS NOT 
INSENSITIVE TO SAY THAT OVERALL, TERRORISM REMAINS A MINOR 
PHENOMENON, EXCEPT FOR ITS PSYCHOLOGICAL IMPACT. IT IS THE 
ROLE OF STATES TO FIND WAYS TO IMPROVE SECURITY AND FOR THE 
MEDIA TO REFRAIN FROM ADDING TO THE PUBLIC'S ANXIETY." 
 
(C) SUPPORTING TEXT/BLOCK QUOTES: 
 
MIDDLE EAST - GAZA PULLOUT 
 
"WOUNDS" 
PATRICK SABATIER IN LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION (08/19): "IN THE 
END, THE WAR OF THE SETTLERS WILL NOT TAKE PLACE. THE SETTLERS 
ALLOWED THEMSELVES TO BE EVACUATED WITHOUT THE USE OF 
VIOLENCE. AMONG THE PALESTINIANS REASON HAS ALSO PREVAILED. 
BUT THE EVACUATION, ALBEIT PEACEFUL, WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO 
HEAL THE WOUNDS OF GAZA. THE ISRAELI ARMY REMAINS BEHIND IN 
GAZA, WHICH IT HAS TURNED INTO AN OPEN-SKY OVERCROWDED PRISON 
DEVOID OF HOPE. BUT THE PALESTINIANS ARE ALSO STAYING BEHIND. 
IT IS UP TO THEM TO PROVE THEY ARE NOT THEIR OWN WORST 
ENEMIES. IN ADDITION TO THE REIGNING CHAOS, THE POLITICAL 
POWER STRUGGLE AMONG THE FATAH MEMBERS IS LEAVING AN OPENING 
TO HAMAS EXTREMISTS WHO WANT TO IMPOSE THEMSELVES. IT WILL NOT 
BE EASY FOR MAHMOUD ABBAS TO PROVE TO THE PALESTINIANS THAT 
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND A DECENT ADMINISTRATION ARE MORE 
EFFICIENT WEAPONS TO ESTABLISH A STATE THAN ROCKETS AND 
TERRORIST ATTACKS. SHARON IS ALSO WEAKENED BY THE DOMESTIC 
POLITICAL CRISIS HE HAS CREATED. BOTH MEN HAVE PROVEN THEY 
COULD WORK TOGETHER IN THE GAZA PULLOUT, BUT IT WILL BE 
DIFFICULT FOR BOTH TO STAY ON THE ROAD, IF NOT TO PEACE, AT 
LEAST TO RELATIVE CALM. THEY NEED ALL THE HELP THEY CAN GET 
FROM THE REST OF THE WORLD." 
 
IRAN 
"MOSCOW COMES TO TEHRAN'S RESCUE" 
ALEXANDRE CEDRE IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (08/19): "RENEWED 
TENSION BETWEEN TEHRAN AND THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY HAS 
INDIRECTLY UNDERSCORED THE AMBIVALENT STANCE ADOPTED BY MOSCOW 
ABOUT IRAN AND THE NUCLEAR ISSUE. TENSION BETWEEN MOSCOW AND 
WASHINGTON RESURFACED AFTER THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN IRAN. 
WHEN PUTIN CONGRATULATED THE NEW PRESIDENT AND OFFERED A NEW 
NUCLEAR COOPERATION BETWEEN THE TWO COUNTRIES. IN SPITE OF 
RUSSIA'S ASSURANCES THAT THE DEAL CONCERNS ONLY COMMERCIAL 
NUCLEAR PROGRAMS, WESTERN OBSERVERS ARE WORRIED. ESPECIALLY 
SINCE MOSCOW IS ALSO LOOKING AT NEW MILITARY CONTRACTS WITH 
IRAN. IF THESE NEW MILITARY CONTRACTS ARE CONFIRMED, THEY WILL 
NO DOUBT BE A SOURCE OF IRRITATION FOR WASHINGTON. THEY WILL 
ALSO CAST A SHADOW ON THE KREMLIN'S POLICY IN THE FIGHT 
AGAINST INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM, BECAUSE IRAN'S WEAPONS, 
WHETHER CONVENTIONAL OR UNCONVENTIONAL CAN ONE DAY FALL INTO 
THE HANDS OF MUSLIM FANATICS." HOFMANN