US embassy cable - 05MANILA3810

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANILA 003810 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/PMBS, INR/EAP, INR/B 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/18/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PINS, PINR, RP 
SUBJECT: HEARINGS ON IMPEACHMENT CHARGES CONTINUE, BUT 
ARGUMENTS OVER PROCEDURE DOMINATE DEBATE 
 
REF: A. MANILA 3697 
 
     B. MANILA 3593 
     C. MANILA 3458 
     D. MANILA 3391 
     E. MANILA 2777 
 
Classified By: Political Officer Timothy Cipullo 
for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  House hearings into the impeachment charges 
brought against President Arroyo are continuing, but 
pro-Arroyo and Opposition members continue to argue over 
procedure.  In other legislative news, a House leader has 
advocated the formation of a constituent assembly that would 
focus on transforming the current governing structure into a 
parliamentary system.  Senators, who do not want to see their 
body dissolved, have lashed out at the House proposal.  At 
this point, the Opposition's impeachment effort seems to be 
in serious trouble -- there is little sign that it is picking 
up any new support in the House or among the public at large. 
 End Summary. 
 
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Impeachment Complaint Stalled Over Procedure 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
2.  (U) House Justice Committee hearings on August 16-17 
focused on the procedural question of whether to consider an 
impeachment complaint filed by a private citizen against 
President Arroyo or the amended complaint filed subsequently 
by 42 Opposition legislators.  After much discussion and 
arguing between the pro-Arroyo and Opposition camps, the 
Committee still had not reached a decision.  It agreed to 
hold further hearings on August 23-24 to discuss and vote on 
the issue.  The Opposition continues to argue heatedly that 
its amended complaint is the one that should be reviewed by 
the House.  The pro-Arroyo majority argues that the earlier 
complaint is the one that should legally have priority.  As 
of this point, the Opposition has yet to call a witness or 
make any other presentation in the Committee as to the 
substantive nature of its case against Arroyo.  Charlie 
Serapio, a lawyer and pro-Opposition figure, told Acting 
Pol/C on August 17 that he wondered when the Opposition would 
be able to make its case, remarking:  "I think Majority 
members are working to derail the impeachment proceedings 
and, unfortunately, they have the votes." 
 
3.  (SBU) The issue of the whereabouts of a potentially key 
witness in the impeachment debate continues to make news. 
Department of Foreign Affairs Undersecretary Franklin Ebdalin 
has publicly confirmed that former Commission on Elections 
(COMELEC) official Virgilio Garcillano left Manila on July 14 
bound for Singapore aboard a private jet.  Singaporean 
immigration authorities also confirmed that Garcillano 
departed the following day for the United Kingdom.  His 
current location is not known.  In July, Congress issued a 
summons for Garcillano to testify in the House impeachment 
hearings.  When he failed to appear, the House found him in 
contempt and authorities issued a warrant for his arrest. 
Garcillano became a central figure when audio-tapes that 
contain conversations he had with President Arroyo during the 
vote-counting phase after the May 2004 elections were 
released to the public -- see ref e.  The Opposition has made 
clear that questioning Garcillano, or "Garci" as he is called 
in the press, is central to its impeachment case. 
 
4.  (SBU) Regarding the audio-tapes, Department of 
Environment and Natural Resources Secretary Mike Defensor 
alleged at an August 12 press conference that analysis by an 
"independent audio expert" had concluded that the tapes were 
spliced and "doctored."  Senator Panfilo "Ping" Lacson, a 
staunch Arroyo foe, called for experts in the U.S. and 
Australia to authenticate both Defensor's copies of the tapes 
and his own.  He said that he would ask the Opposition to 
withdraw the impeachment complaint and he would personally 
apologize to President Arroyo if the tapes proved to be 
fabricated.  (Note:  Various Filipino politicians and others 
have publicly floated the idea of the USG's examining the 
tapes in order to determine their authenticity.  The GRP has 
made no formal request to the FBI, however, and the FBI has 
no plans to accede to such a request if one is made.  End 
Note.) 
 
-------------------------------- 
Discussing Constitutional Change 
-------------------------------- 
 
5.  (C) In other legislative news, Constantino Jaraula, the 
Chairman of the House Constitutional Amendments Committee, 
announced on August 16 that the House plans to convene a 
constituent assembly to amend the Constitution in order to 
shift the current structure to a parliamentary system. 
Jaraula averred that such a move would be possible with a 
vote of three-quarters of the members of both houses, i.e., 
195 votes by any of the 236 representatives plus 23 senators. 
 Senate President Franklin Drilon reacted angrily to the 
proposal, calling the suggestion "patently unconstitutional." 
 He insisted that the House and Senate must vote separately, 
asserting that a 3/4 majority in both bodies would be 
necessary in order to convene a constituent assembly.  Drilon 
has publicly stated that he is not against the idea of 
establishing a parliamentary system, per se, but would prefer 
that any debate on the matter take place via a Constitutional 
convention, whereby delegates would be chosen in a national 
election. 
 
6.  (C) Senators of all stripes are lining up behind Drilon. 
In an August 16 meeting, Senator Joker Arroyo, who is 
pro-Arroyo, commented that Jaraula's proposal was "dead in 
the water" in the Senate.  In an August 17 meeting, Senator 
Maria Anna Consuelo "Jamby" Madrigal, an Opposition member, 
told Acting Pol/C that there was no way that the Senate would 
support the House's current model for Constitutional change. 
Arroyo and Madrigal both made clear that senators are not 
inclined to support Constitutional change proposals that 
basically seek to dissolve the Senate and turn the system 
into a unicameral one. 
 
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Comment 
------- 
 
7.  (C) At this point, the Opposition's impeachment effort 
seems to be in serious trouble.  To achieve a referral to the 
Senate, the Opposition needs 79 or more endorsements from 
members of the 236-member house (or one-third of the total). 
So far, the Opposition's complaint might have around 50 
supporters (ref b), but no one has apparently signed up in 
the past couple of weeks.  At the same time, despite the 
Opposition's best efforts, the public at large does not seem 
to care much about the proceedings.  People are not glued to 
their TV sets or talking and creating a buzz about what is 
transpiring.  Re the Constitutional change proposal, there is 
little doubt that this perennial issue is going to generate 
increased attention as House members press the matter 
forward, but agreement among all key players (Malacanang, 
House, the Senate, etc.) will be difficult to reach, to put 
it mildly. 
 
Visit Embassy Manila's Classified SIPRNET website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eap/manila/index. cfm 
 
You can also access this site through the State Department's 
Classified SIPRNET website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/ 
 
JOHNSON