US embassy cable - 05TELAVIV5104

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TEL AVIV 005104 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/17/2015 
TAGS: PREL, MOPS, ASEC, KWBG, KPAL, PINS, ETRD, IS, GAZA DISENGAGEMENT, ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS 
SUBJECT: A/S WELCH DISCUSSES DISENGAGEMENT AND GAZA 
CROSSINGS WITH MOD MOFAZ 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Daniel C. Kurtzer. for Reason 1.4 (b) and (d) 
. 
 
1.  (C) Summary: A/S Welch, Ambassador Kurtzer and General 
Ward met with Minister of Defense Mofaz and his key staff on 
August 16 to review the status of settler evacuation from 
Gaza, and to discuss the status of an Israel-Egyptian 
protocol on troop deployments along Egypt's border with Gaza. 
 A/S Welch urged Mofaz to seek Egyptian views on Gaza 
crossings, with a view to finding a way to resolve 
differences over the issue of Rafah.  Mofaz praised 
Palestinian security forces' efforts in Gaza, anticipated 
Egyptian agreement on a side letter that would address 
opposition and Likud political concerns about possible arms 
transfers to Palestinians, and expressed hope that an 
agreement on rubble would be concluded with PA Minister 
Dahlan.  Mofaz also sounded an alarm about possible 
PIJ-initiated suicide bombings emanating from the Tulkarm 
area of the West Bank.  Mofaz reaffirmed for General Ward 
Israel's concurrence with the provision of specific 
non-lethal equipment to the Palestinians.  End Summary. 
 
--------------------------- 
Palestinian Security Forces 
--------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) A/S Welch summarized the message the U.S. delegation 
had delivered to Palestinian security officials earlier on 
August 16 on the Gazan side of Karni (septel).  "While most 
of the world is watching what the Government of Israel is 
doing, we told them we are looking at what they (the 
Palestinians) are doing to prepare for the day after 
(disengagement)."   A/S Welch added that he had urged the 
Palestinians to show unity and sent the signal that "security 
is everything."  A/S Welch described the meeting as a 
positive indication that the PA security forces under Nasir 
Yusif are working together and cooperating with Israeli 
authorities.  General Ward said he had reinforced the message 
on the importance of PA efforts to keep things calm, and he 
had counseled the PA security services to work together on 
the ground.  General Ward noted some indications that these 
messages are getting through. 
 
---------------------------- 
Mofaz on Settler Evacuations 
---------------------------- 
 
3.  (C) Minister Mofaz indicated that the first phase of the 
disengagement plan is the most important because it is when 
settlers leave on their own.  He estimated that 50 percent of 
the settlers would leave of their own accord.  Force might 
have to be used to relocate others, including some 2,000 
"resisters" who had entered and remained in Gaza contrary to 
GOI orders.  The GOI arrested 150 such persons on August 16, 
and Mofaz predicted additional arrests to come as the IDF 
begins its next phase of operations.  Ambassador Kurtzer 
asked Mofaz for his assessment of the level of violence. 
Mofaz cited several instances of conflicts between the IDF 
and settlers, but indicated that Israeli security services 
could cope.  He is advocating a shorter timetable than 
originally planned for the completion of the evacuation. 
 
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Mofaz on Coordination:  Some Praise for Palestinian Efforts 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
 
4.  (C) Mofaz provided an account of the August 14 
coordination meeting between ministers and committees charged 
with coordinating disengagement.  He assessed that 
"coordination by both sides on the ground is very good."  He 
recalled the early August 14 mortar incident near Neve 
Dekalim and Gadid, and noted that the following night there 
were only two firing incidents at Israeli positions in Gaza. 
In this regard, Mofaz acknowledged the efforts of PA 
battalions deployed and assessed that their interest is to 
keep the situation quiet.  "They do not fully control what is 
happening in Gaza, but from the level of coordination, they 
are making efforts with good intentions."  (Note: At the end 
of the meeting, Mofaz's aides informed him of a mortar firing 
on August 16.) 
 
5.  (C) Mofaz indicated that the August 14 meeting also 
resolved a misunderstanding regarding the status of West Bank 
settlements post-disengagement.  While President Abbas always 
has, Nasir Yusif now understands that the legal status of the 
West Bank area will not be changed, according to Mofaz.  On 
Gaza, Mofaz said he revealed to Yusif that Israel forces 
would turn over to PA control in a single 24-to-36 hour 
period all of Gaza -- South/Central/North sectors -- rather 
than in the three or four phases, as originally anticipated 
by the Palestinians.  Mofaz explained that an extended 
transition is not tenable, as it might result in images of 
IDF forces evacuating settlements juxtaposed with those of 
Palestinians raising flags over other evacuated areas.  Mofaz 
anticipates another meeting with Palestinian counterparts 
during the week of August 21.  Mofaz reaffirmed for General 
Ward Israel's concurrence with the provision of specific 
non-lethal equipment to the Palestinians. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
Disengagement - Critical Phase After Evacuation of Settlers 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
 
6.  (C) Once the settlers depart, the disengagement process 
will enter a critical phase, according to Mofaz.  Hamas or 
other Palestinians could at that time attempt to penetrate 
the settlements before the IDF pulls down settler homes.  "We 
do not want a confrontation with the Palestinians," Mofaz 
said, adding that IDF forces will be busy packing equipment 
left in settler homes into containers and then bringing them 
out of Gaza.  Mofaz estimated that the timeframe for the 
destruction of the settlements -- once the last settlers have 
been evacuated -- will be two to four weeks until completion 
and the departure of the last IDF soldier from Gaza.  Mofaz 
said he anticipates that the IDF will be out of Gaza and the 
northern West Bank settlements in October, much earlier than 
the six months envisaged earlier. 
 
----------------------------- 
Egyptian-Israeli Negotiations 
----------------------------- 
 
7.  (C) Mofaz and MOD Deputy Director General Amos Gilad 
described in some detail the status of Israeli-Egyptian 
negotiations on a protocol governing the deployment of 
Egyptian forces along the border with Gaza (septel).  Mofaz 
and Gilad said the military talks are moving in the right 
direction.  Due to recent political requirements raised by 
the Israeli opposition (e.g., Lapid of Shinui) and even some 
in Likud, Gilad has been instructed to negotiate a side 
letter with the Egyptians that puts to paper their verbal 
commitment not to transfer arms to the Palestinians without 
coordination with Israel.   Mofaz said he expects such a 
document by August 18, and recalled that he stressed to 
Egyptian MOD Tantawi and EGIS Head Suleiman over the weekend 
of August 13-14 that it will be important to conclude the 
agreement within a week so that the IDF can leave Gaza and 
the Philadelphi corridor as soon as possible.  Mofaz 
expressed his opinion that the Israeli Government will 
approve the agreement, but (under an agreement that PM Sharon 
struck with MK Yuval Steinitz) it must first be approved by 
the Knesset before it can be signed and implemented. 
 
-------------- 
Gaza Crossings 
-------------- 
 
8.  (C) Mofaz recalled that the Israeli cabinet had decided 
on two options for Gaza on customs and access issues: 
 
-- keep the current customs system in place while allowing 
people to move from Egypt to Gaza via a new crossing to be 
built at Kerem Shalom at the intersection of Gaza, Egypt and 
Israel, and moving goods via the Nizzana passage, farther 
south on the Israel-Egypt border; or 
 
-- abrogate the customs union (effectively creating one 
customs system for Gaza and another for the West Bank), and 
let the Palestinians control Rafah, but treat Karni (for 
goods) and Erez (for people) as formal border crossings and 
customs frontiers.  Mofaz commented that this option would 
require "deep" inspections by the Israeli side, and would run 
against the direction of plans being discussed by QSE 
Wolfensohn and PA Minister Dahlan, as it would have a 
negative impact on the movement of people and goods between 
Gaza and the West Bank. 
 
9.  (C) Mofaz indicated that he had discussed these Israeli 
options with Dahlan, and he anticipates a follow-on 
discussion "in the next week."  A/S Welch asked whether Mofaz 
had discussed the subject with the Egyptians.  Mofaz replied 
that they had not, but he anticipated that the Egyptians 
would support "whatever Dahlan wants," which he expects will 
be a bilateral, open passage at Rafah for goods and people. 
Ambassador Kurtzer suggested that the GOI seek Egyptian views 
directly, as the Egyptians also have interests: "Do not 
assume they will do just what Dahlan wants."  A/S Welch urged 
Mofaz to use the Egyptians on this issue because they too 
will not want to permit unrestricted access into Gaza.  Mofaz 
agreed that the GOI and the Egyptian EGIS share concerns 
about arms smuggling and travel of "outside terrorists" to 
and from Gaza. 
 
10.  (C) A/S Welch again urged Mofaz to look more closely at 
the Rafah options with a view to designing a system that 
might work, and reduce security risks.  "Rafah is 
symbolically very important," A/S Welch concluded, asking 
Mofaz to take a look at how a third party might contribute to 
customs and name-checking at Rafah.  Mofaz replied that his 
priority is to accomplish the deployment of 750 Egyptians 
along the Egypt-Gaza border. 
 
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Agreement on Rubble 
------------------- 
 
11. (C) Mofaz complained that the Palestinians do not want to 
sign the agreement on disposition of settler housing 
demolition rubble that he, Dahlan and QSE Wolfensohn agreed 
to recently.  Mofaz described the parameters of the 
agreement, noting that some rubble will go to Egypt and some 
will be used for construction purposes in Gaza.  Asbestos and 
other dangerous material will be taken to Israel for safe 
disposal.  Mofaz said he will meet with Dahlan "within the 
next week and we will close this issue." 
 
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Worried about PIJ in the West Bank 
---------------------------------- 
12. (C) Mofaz expressed concern about possible PIJ-initiated 
suicide bomber attacks from Tulkarm and Jenin.  He indicated 
the IDF is taking serious measures to try to stop them. 
 
13. (U) NEA A/S Welch has cleared this cable. 
 
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