US embassy cable - 05LAGOS1293

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LAGOS 001293 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/15/2010 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: POLITICAL SNAPSHOTS FROM THE SOUTH 
 
REF: LAGOS 1251 
 
Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne per 1.4 b and d 
 
1.  (C)  SUMMARY: A political insider asserts that President 
Obasanjo (OBJ) will not only play a decisive role in 
determining Nigeria's next president and vice president, but 
that he has not relinquished the notion of an extended term. 
Political candidates beware -- even when OBJ dons his 
kingmaker attire, he reportedly flashes hot and cold on 
aspirants.  The South East geopolitical zone continues to 
agitate for the presidency, but fails to unify behind a 
candidate.  In the big news in the South East, the Anambra 
Appeals court has overturned Governor Ngige's election, 
declaring All Progressive's Grand Alliance candidate, Peter 
Obi, the winner.  Meanwhile, the Biafran secessionist group, 
MASSOB, has been active lately, circulating Biafran currency, 
flying the Biafran flag, and calling for a stay-at-home 
strike on August 26.  In the South West, Lagos Governor Bola 
Tinubu finally caved to presidential pressure and reversed 
the establishment of 37 new local councils.  However, most of 
the "quid" in this arrangement is still outstanding, with the 
federal government only releasing one-third of the funds 
withheld from Lagos for almost two years.  End Summary. 
 
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NATIONAL SNAPSHOT: OBJ PLAYS EENY, MEENY, MINEY, ME? 
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2.  (C) Members of Nigeria's political elite continue to 
report that President Obasanjo is resolved to play an active 
role in determining Nigeria's next top leadership.  Echoing 
what we heard from Kaduna State Governor Makarfi (reftel), 
former Defense Minister T.Y. Danjuma, told us OBJ is 
determined to "block" Ibrahim Babangida (IBB) and VP Atiku 
Abubakar (Atiku) from getting the PDP presidential 
nomination.  Asked who OBJ supports,  Danjuma chuckled, "why, 
himself, of course."  Danjuma maintained that despite having 
had his share of disagreements with the president concerning 
Nigeria's military reform, he and OBJ remain close.  "I talk 
with him almost every day and trust me, this man wants to 
continue to be president," Danjuma stressed. (Comment: 
Danjuma may not be as close a presidential friend as he 
portrayed himself.  He has axes to grind with the president 
that go beyond military reform.  For instance, Danjuma has 
been leading the efforts to ally his home region, the Middle 
Belt, with southern geo-political zones, and these efforts 
appear to run contrary to any plans Obasanjo might prefer. 
End Comment). 
 
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SOUTH-SOUTH SNAPSHOT: Rivers State Governor Odili 
Maneuvering for President, or Vice President 
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3.  (C) According to some contacts, Rivers State Governor 
Peter Odili's stock with OBJ has fallen temporarily.  The 
president is reportedly annoyed with his erstwhile favorite 
for visibly hitting the campaign trail prematurely, without 
getting the presidential green light. (Some observers would 
say this confirms that Obasanjo has not completely divorced 
himself from the idea of self-succession).  In addition, 
sources say despite having cut the ribbon on Odili's two new 
private planes, the President frowned on their purchase, 
viewing them as excessive.  When he learned Odili 
contemplated using the planes in his election efforts, 
Obasanjo felt that he had been maneuvered to appear to be 
sanctioning Odili's efforts, according to one observer. 
 
4.  (C) Finally, Odili annoyed OBJ by cozying up to IBB and 
his allies.  Odili apparently had angled toward IBB thinking 
him a more likely PDP presidential candidate than VP Atiku. 
(It was no coincidence that one of the first and largest IBB 
campaign offices is in Port Harcourt, Rivers State capital). 
In this vein, Odili reportedly gave Rivers State National 
Political Reform Conference Delegate Albert Horsfall a 
handsome sum of  "traveling money," which Horsfall used 
liberally at the national confab.  Horsfall is an "IBB man," 
having been IBB's top security man at one point during the 
military presidency.  Horsfall also wielded a powerful (and 
probably, "enriching") position as IBB's director of Oil 
Mineral Producing Areas Development Commission (OMPADEC), the 
predecessor of the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC). 
 Odili had to reach an entente with Horsfall, heretofore a 
political enemy from a rival part of Rivers State, in order 
for the governor to be more attractive to IBB as a potential 
running mate. 
 
5.  (C ) Perhaps learning that he had angered the president, 
Odili is attempting to restore himself in the president's 
good graces.  In a turn of self-effacement, Odili 
co-sponsored a pro-Obasanjo public lecture and book launch in 
Accra, Ghana on August 13.  Odili hosted this event with 
Nasarawa Governor Adamu, a notorious OBJ yes-man, who has 
been mentioned as a presidential dark horse.  Odili may have 
recalculated that the closer he sticks to Adamu, the less 
likely will he anger OBJ and the more likely he is to get the 
president's support for his vice-presidential ambitions. 
 
6.  (C) Last, the South-South political class is shouting 
that Nigeria's next president must hail from the Niger Delta. 
 "Second-best, i.e. the vice-presidency, will not do." 
However, this rallying cry is basically a sop to the Niger 
Delta population, who are still riled following the zone's 
bold, but failed, bid for increased resource control at the 
recently concluded national confab.  Among the governors, 
this declaration is a hollow lie.  In truth, three of the 
zone's governors have their eyes on the vice presidency and 
will not divert their gaze not their activities 
notwithstanding the public disclaimer. 
 
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SOUTH-EAST SNAPSHOT: Gubernatorial Election Overturned; 
Zone wants Presidency, but No Candidate; 
Biafra Day "Stay-AT-Home" Strike 
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7.  (C)  Following a two-year court battle and over 500 
witnesses, the Anambra State Elections Tribunal ruled August 
12 that APGA candidate Peter Obi was the legitimate 2003 
gubernatorial winner.  Current governor Chris Ngige, who had 
already been ousted from the ruling People's Democratic Party 
(PDP) will appeal.  However, Obi likely will prevail at the 
appellate level as well.  Most people believe Obi won the 
election.  Nevertheless, APGA Chairman Victor Umeh told us 
the party still had to "strike a deal" with the PDP national 
hierarchy in Abuja before the court would take the risky step 
of ousting a sitting PDP governor, no matter how estranged 
from the party.  Under the deal, Ngige nemesis and OBJ 
insider, Chris Uba, gets "taken care of," Umeh stated, 
without offering further details.  However, problems may be 
on the horizon.  Governor designate Obi is not fully aware of 
the arrangement and may balk when asked to implement it. 
According to Umeh, Deputy Governor Okey Udeh who remained 
close to Chris Uba, was instrumental in brokering the deal 
between APGA and the PDP.  Presumably, the reward for his 
good services may be to remain as deputy governor or to have 
a place in Obi's cabinet despite being in a different party. 
 
8.  (C) The South East continues to clamor for the 2007 
presidency, but has not progressed toward identifying a 
consensus candidate.  Ethno-political groups, such as the 
pan-Igbo, Ohaneze Ndigbo, meet weekly.  The South East has 
been strategizing with the Middle Belt on a potential 
presidential/vice-presidential ticket.  This is the latest in 
a series of cross-zonal overtures.  During the national 
confab, the Middle Belt sought common cause with the 
South-South, but the partnership promptly disintegrated. 
Similarly, for a brief period, all three southern zones acted 
in concert during the national conference, but eventually 
reverted to their particular interests.  The Middle Belt is 
the orphan of the North.  It has the most to gain from 
forming a lasting alliance with the South.  The South East 
sees itself as the orphan in the South.  It is uncertain if 
there is more glue that can bind the two zones together save 
their mutual perception of political marginalization. 
 
9.  (SBU)  Meanwhile, the secessionist group, the Movement 
for the Actualization of the Sovereign State of Biafra 
(MASSOB) as been active lately.  MASSOB reportedly is 
circulating Biafran currency and flying the Biafran flag. 
Residents of the region have been urged to stay at home on 
August 26, Biafran day.  The "stay-at-home" strike MASSOB 
organized in October 2004 was respected widely, impacting 
Igbo-owned business ventures throughout the South, including 
in Lagos and Port Harcourt.  We anticipate similar, if not 
greater, adherence to this upcoming strike. 
 
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SOUTH WEST SNAPSHOT:  Lagos Caves but Money Still Withheld 
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10.  (C)  After an almost two-year stand-off, Lagos State 
Governor Bola Tinubu yielded to federal pressure to disband 
the 37 new local councils he had created.  However,  Tinubu 
may have been outmaneuvered in this long-running tussle with 
the federal government (FG).  Tinubu thought he had reached a 
deal with Abuja whereby he would rescind the creation of 37 
(of a total of 57) local government councils and the FG would 
release the local government funds it has withheld, on the 
premise that the new councils were unconstitutional. 
However, the FG only released one-third of the funds and the 
FG may insist on new local government elections prior to 
releasing the remainder. 
 
11.  (C)  Last year, the Supreme Court ruled the new councils 
illegal, but said the president had no authority to withhold 
a state's funds.  At the time, Obasanjo "interpreted" that 
judgment to mean that he did not have to release the funds 
until the illegal councils were disbanded.  The call for 
fresh elections represents a new FG conditionality.  Lagos is 
controlled by the Alliance for Democracy (AD).  Of the 
seventeen states comprising Southern Nigeria, it is the only 
one not in the hands of the PDP.  With a population of 
between six and ten million, Lagos is a big electoral prize. 
The FG wants new elections to see if the PDP can begin to 
erode AD support and to help lay the groundwork for 2007. 
That Obasanjo out-foxed Tinubu, his rival for the unofficial 
mantle of political leader of the Yorubas, is also a nice 
bonus. 
 
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Comment 
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12.  (C) The uniting theme in these "reports from the 
provinces" is OBJ's current political strength.  From our 
perch in Southern Nigeria, OBJ may not have sufficient 
support to prolong his tenure, he nevertheless probably 
wields veto-power regarding who will become Nigeria's next 
president.  However, Nigeria is dynamic and the political 
cycle here is a fast, boom and bust one.  OBJ rides high 
today, but could easily see his fortunes reverse tomorrow. 
End Comment. 
BROWNE