US embassy cable - 05COLOMBO1449

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 COLOMBO 001449 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SA/INS 
PACOM FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/15/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, MV, Maldives 
SUBJECT: MALDIVES:  GOVERNMENT, OPPOSITION ACCUSE EACH 
OTHER OF FOMENTING VIOLENCE 
 
REF: COLOMBO 1420 
 
Classified By: Charge d'Affaires James F. Entwistle.  Reason:  1.4 (b,d 
). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (C)  Although the streets of Male' were calm August 15 
for the first night since August 12, at least 137 people 
remain in detention as a result of the preceding nights' 
unrest.  ICRC is planning a visit to Maldives to meet the 
detainees.  In an August 15 meeting in Colombo, opposition 
Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) representatives charged that 
the Government's heavy-handed over-reaction to an initially 
peaceful demonstration August 12 had "inflamed" the local 
population, provoking street violence that carried over into 
subsequent nights.  The MDP fears the Government will use the 
events of August 12-14 as a pretext to keep key MDP figures 
in prolonged detention--just as happened the previous year. 
Foreign Minister Ahmed Shaheed, on the other hand, told the 
Charge' on August 16 that the MDP was intent on fomenting 
violence, adding that he expects more unrest in the month to 
come.  The tendency on the part of both the Government and 
the MDP to hyperbolize the confrontation points to the 
continued lack of political sophistication on both sides. 
While the decision to allow political parties to register was 
an encouraging step forward, the Government's all-too-obvious 
discomfort in allowing them to function as 
parties--especially if, like the MDP, they are in the 
opposition--suggests that Maldives' democratic growing pains 
will continue for some time to come.  Despite the bumps in 
the road, we believe the trend toward reform is generally in 
the right direction and worthy of continued U.S. support. 
End summary. 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
MDP:  GOVERNMENT PLOT TO DISCREDIT OPPOSITION 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
2.  (SBU) In an August 15 meeting with poloff in Colombo, 
seven members of the opposition Maldivian Democratic Party 
(MDP), including MDP Spokesman Mohamed Latheef, People's 
Majlis MPs Moosa Manik and Mohamed Aslam, and Special Majlis 
MP and former Attorney General Mohamed Munavvar, charged that 
the Government of Republic of Maldives' (GORM) harsh 
over-reaction to an initially peaceful protest August 12 had 
"inflamed" ordinary Maldivians, fueling violent 
demonstrations later that night and on the two succeeding 
nights.  According to these interlocutors, when police began 
to haul away MDP Chairman Mohamed Nasheed and three other MDP 
activists from a sit-down protest in the Maldivian capital of 
Male' August 12 (Reftel), the spectacle quickly drew a crowd 
of interested onlookers.  When security forces began to try 
to disperse the crowd with tear gas, rubber bullets and water 
cannon, a larger confrontation erupted, with some in the 
crowd throwing bricks and rocks.  (Note:  In some cases, more 
than bricks and stones were thrown.  Reliable sources in two 
multilateral organizations confirm having seen tennis balls 
set on fire, and in one instance, an apparent Molotov 
cocktail being lobbed about.) 
 
3.  (SBU)  MDP MPs' requests to meet with the Speaker of the 
Majlis and the Minister of Defense to defuse tensions were 
refused, they reported, and the situaiton rapidly escalated. 
The violent demonstrations of the succeeding two nights were 
largely provoked by the security forces' heavy-handed 
attempts at crowd control, the MDP representatives asserted. 
GORM allegations that the MDP had orchestrated the violence 
are false, they said, contending instead that the 
demonstrations were spontaneous reflections of the popular 
desire for reform and dissatisfaction with the status quo. 
In addition, some hinted darkly, the GORM was hiring drug 
addicts and goons to foment violence and then blame it on the 
MDP. 
 
4.  (C)  Even though there had been no demonstrations the 
night of August 15, the MDP delegation said, the GORM was 
continuing to arrest party members and 
sympathizers--including those who had not been present on the 
streets during the protests.  (In a separate telephone 
conversation from Male', MDP MP Ibrahim Ismail told poloff 
that a gang of thugs had stormed the home of another MDP MP 
on Male' and beaten him.)  MDP MP Mohamed Munavvar, who spent 
more than three months in detention after the previous year's 
unrest, and Spokesman Mohamed Latheef speculated that the 
GORM might be collecting "evidence" to justify keeping key 
MDP figures in extended detention in an effort to discredit 
the party.  With parties now able to register legally, the 
MDP had been pressing Gayoom to let the parties test the 
popular will by holding early elections, Latheef continued, 
which Gayoom is unwilling to do.  Noting that some pro-GORM 
MPs had recently tabled a motion in the People's Majlis to 
reopen sedition investigations against MDP figures detained 
in last year's unrest, Latheef said that President Maumoon 
Abdul Gayoom feared the MDP's growing popularity and knew his 
own newly formed party would not prevail in free and fair 
elections against the MDP.  The international community 
should put pressure on Gayoom to commmit to "a time-bound 
schedule" to implement the reforms he has pledged to 
undertake (separation of powers, independence of the 
judiciary, etc.), as well as early elections.  If Gayoom 
refuses, "we will take to the streets," Latheef pledged.  The 
discussion then quickly degenerated into a heated argument 
between Latheef  and Munavvar about whether or not MDP 
partisans would/should indeed take to the streets; poloff 
left the meeting before the resolution of this internal (and, 
for the MDP, all-too-typical) debate. 
 
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GORM:  MDP PLOT TO OVERTHROW THE GOVERNMENT 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
5.  (C) In an August 16 meeting with Charge' in Colombo, 
newly appointed Foreign Minister Dr. Ahmed Shaheed said that 
the GORM response had been necessary to maintain law and 
order.  Public protests are not allowed under Maldivian law, 
but police had not acted to remove Nasheed and others on 
August 12 until they began shouting, "Kill Gayoom, " Shaheed 
asserted.  (Note:  This is the first time we have heard any 
suggestion, including from Government sources, that Nasheed 
was advocating violence.  In fact, Government Spokesman 
Mohamed Shareef had told us that Nasheed's protest, while 
illegal, was nonetheless peaceful, and initial Government 
explanations of his detention said that he had been placed in 
protective custody.)  The GORM had received previous 
indications that the MDP was planning some kind of 
demonstration to mark the one-year anniversary of the August 
12-14 unrest in 2004; frankly, Shaheed observed, knowing MDP 
frustration at the slow pace of promised reforms, he had been 
expecting something worse.  He added that he expects more 
unrest in the month to come.  The Foreign Minister rejected 
MDP claims that the police and National Security Service 
(NSS) had over-reacted; they had to resort to tear gas and 
rubber bullets to quell the street violence the MDP (which 
he, in turn, accused of employing drug addicts and thugs) was 
fomenting.  He added that 137 people remain in detention, but 
emphasized that the seven-day limit during which they may be 
held without charge will be followed strictly, and claimed 
that many were being released already. 
 
6.  (C)  Shaheed said that there had apparently been some 
internal debate within the MDP in the days leading up to 
August 12 about whether to mark the one-year anniversary with 
some kind of protest, with Nasheed and others arguing for a 
public display and some MPs pleading for a less 
confrontational route.  (Note:  Given what we have seen of 
MDP in Colombo, we are not surprised to hear of this apparent 
lack of MDP consensus.)  The GORM was trying to reach out to 
some of these "cooler heads" within the opposition party, 
Shaheed indicated.  He said he believed the MDP felt 
compelled to resort to violent protests because it feared 
Gayoom would succeed in "rebranding" himself as a democrat, 
now that Constitutional reforms are impending.  (Comment: 
The reforms are not impending that fast.  The People's 
Majlis, which was specifically constituted in June 2004 to 
consider constitutional reforms, remains mired a year later 
in seemingly endless discussions of rules of procedure and 
has yet to debate a single proposed change.  Shaheed, perhaps 
optimistically, nonetheless said he expects a new 
Constitution will be ready one year from now.  End comment.) 
Having cut many of his long-time cronies from his Cabinet in 
the July 14 reshuffle, Gayoom is more vulnerable than ever, 
Shaheed said, facing pressure from disgruntled former 
Ministers on the one hand and MDP malcontents on the other. 
When asked about the move to reopen old sedition cases 
against MDP stalwarts, Shaheed said the motion was tabled by 
a Majlis "back-bencher" and did not have GORM support. 
 
7.  (C) Charge' told Shaheed that the U.S. had been 
encouraged by some recent reforms, including the registration 
of parties, adding that the GORM seems generally headed down 
the right path toward greater democracy and respect for human 
rights, an effort the U.S. supports.  Nonetheless, while 
acknowledging the importance of maintaining law and order, 
Charge' emphasized that the GORM must ensure that the police 
response is appropriate and fully respectful of human rights 
and that any detentions be legitimate and defensible. 
Shaheed said these were issues that he and the Attorney 
General in particular took very seriously. 
 
---------------------------- 
VIEW FROM THE MULTILATERALS 
---------------------------- 
 
8.  (C) On August 17 poloff met in Colombo with ICRC Deputy 
Head of Regional Delegation Maarten Merkelbach, who is 
traveling to Maldives to meet with detainees.  (Note:  This 
is only ICRC's second visit to Maldives.  The first occurred 
in April when, according to Merkelbach, there were no 
"clients" in detention.  End note.)  Merkelbach said he had 
asked the Home Ministry for permission to visit when he first 
heard of the detentions on August 13; the Home Ministry 
responded affirmatively "within a matter of hours."  He 
characterized his GORM interlocutors during his April visit 
as "very positive, very cooperative" and refreshingly "frank" 
in admitting missteps in the past. The police, which were 
only separated from the NSS a year ago, were not given 
appropriate civil affairs/human rights training to help them 
make the change to their new role as a civilian force, 
Merkelbach noted.  Many of those he met with, including 
personnel in the Attorney General's Office and the police, 
freely acknowledged deficiencies in current operations and 
pleaded for ICRC asssistance in bringing such practices in 
line with international standards.  With more than 100 people 
now in detention as a result of the August 12-14 unrest, he 
observed, "it will be interesting to see how the system 
functions under pressure." 
 
9.  (C)  On August 17 poloff spoke by telephone with Minh 
Pham, the former UNDP Resident Representative in Maldives. 
Although he is no longer in Maldives, Pham said he remains in 
regular communication with contacts there.  From what he  has 
heard of how events transpired August 12-14--and from what he 
knows from long-term contact with many of the key players--he 
said he believes that GORM and opposition forces are at an 
impasse.  The lack of political maturity on both sides makes 
compromise difficult, he observed.  Absent such compromise, 
however, Maldives is "heading for a clash," he predicted.  To 
avert that prospect, he suggested the international community 
take a public stand that a) appeals for calm and reason on 
both sides; and b) calls for the GORM to adopt "a clear 
timetable," with identifiable benchmarks, on reform.  "People 
have heard enough (about reform); now they want to see 
something" concrete in the form of separation of powers, 
independence of the judiciary and other measures Gayoom has 
been saying he will undertake for the past year.  Noting the 
strong mutual mistrust in which Gayoom and the MDP hold one 
another, he suggested that international mediation could be 
the best way forward. 
 
10.  (C)  In a separate telephone conversation from Male' on 
August 17,  Acting UNDP ResRep Kari Blenheim told poloff that 
average Maldivians seemed "shocked and disturbed" by the 
unaccustomed violence of this past week, adding that the 
general consensus seemed to be that the police and NSS "were 
heavy-handed in some instances."  Although the streets were 
calm the nights of August 15 and 16, "underlying tensions" 
persist.  She reiterated other reports of internal 
dissension/indecisiveness within the MDP; some are militating 
for instantaneous reform while others, noting that parties 
were only legalized in June, are arguing for greater 
patience.   The country is going through a period of rapid 
change, Blenheim commented, much of it positive.  Besides the 
legalization of political parties, she cited the July 14 
Cabinet reshuffle, which introduced younger, more innovative 
technocrats into that heretofore ossified group, as 
especially promising.  For example, she said the new Atolls 
Development Minister is "vocal" about the need for better 
governance, has suggested that island chiefs should be 
elected instead of appointed, and wants to promote civic 
education in the local population.  Echoing some of the views 
of her colleague Minh Pham, Blenheim suggested that to help 
ensure that change is peaceful and to assuage opposition 
suspicions, the GORM should adopt a better defined process 
leading up to elections so that people know there is "some 
kind of plan" for broader democracy to take root. 
 
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COMMENT 
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11.  (C) The pace of political reform in Maldives may not 
seem especially speedy to an outsider, but for a country that 
has had the same President (with almost the same Cabinet) for 
over 25 years and no political parties ever, it is 
significant and worthy of continued U.S. support.  There are 
bound to be growing pains along the way, but these cramps and 
kinks are especially difficult to work out in an atmosphere 
of such intense and personalized mutual suspicion.  The 
accusations and counter-accusations we have heard--invariably 
depicted in almost apocalyptic terms--from both sides over 
the past few days demonstrate how politically unsophisticated 
both sides remain--and how far Maldives must still travel on 
the road to a strong multiparty democracy.  A more clearly 
delineated timeframe for key reforms, such as an independent 
judiciary, might be an important step Gayoom could take 
toward building the confidence needed for the MDP and GORM to 
make that trip together.  While the GORM's ready invitation 
to the ICRC is heartening, we will be watching closely to see 
whether detainees are kept without charge for beyond the 
seven-day limit. 
ENTWISTLE