US embassy cable - 05BAGHDAD3393

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 003393 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/17/2025 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, IZ, Reconstruction 
SUBJECT: LEITH KUBBA AND BARHAM SALEH ON BUILDING A VIABLE 
POLITICAL CENTER 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Robert Ford for reasons 1.4 (B) and 
(D) 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY: Political Advisor to Prime Minister Ja,fari 
Leith Kubba and Minister of Planning Barham Saleh told POLOFF 
separately on August 13 that, after the completion of the 
constitution, building a political center should be the 
immediate goal of the U.S. Government to ensure that the 
December elections produce a moderate and centrist assembly. 
Kubba said that SCIRI has the financial and political backing 
from Iran that will give them advantage over all other 
political parties.  Minister of Planning Barham Saleh said 
that, without a moderate political center, Iraq would not be 
a viable democracy.  Interestingly, both thought that former 
Prime Minister Ayad Allawi would be the base for a political 
center.  Saleh went so far as to speculate that after the 
constitution draft is finished, the Kurds might seek to bring 
down the Jafari government.  How this would help the 
political center compete against Islamist parties like SCIRI 
is not clear, as Allawi had a poorly organized campaign last 
January and it is not at all clear it would be any better 
this time.  END SUMMARY. 
 
------------ 
Barham Saleh 
------------ 
2.  (C) Minister of Planning and senior PUK official Barham 
Saleh told PolOff on August 13 that, for Iraq to succeed, the 
U.S. Government must set as an immediate goal building 
Iraq,s centrists in preparation for December,s elections. 
Saleh warned that, if the centrists were not supported, the 
December elections would bring back the most zealous 
religious groups, which will interpret the new Iraqi 
constitution to their best interest.  Saleh said that the 
December elections might result in a conservative Islamic 
state that is antithetical to the direction in which 
centrists want to go.  One of the mistakes of last January,s 
elections, Saleh opined, was that the moderates were 
fragmented, and that many of the votes were wasted because 
they could not come together in one list.  He said that the 
U.S. should back a few moderates to ensure that they become a 
force able to challenge the Shia and Sunni extremists.  Saleh 
said former PM Allawi would be the most likely candidate to 
lead the centrists, and that he is gaining popularity among 
the moderates from both Sunni and Shia.  (Comment: We have 
heard similar views from several other contacts, including 
people with no political connections.) Saleh said Allawi had 
succeeded in attracting popular TNA Sunni Speaker Hachem 
al-Hassani to his group..  He predicted that Pachachi and the 
others wouldwill also join Allawi,s group --either as 
candidates or supporters -- and would contribute to his 
message of national unity. 
 
3.  (C) Equally important, Saleh said, is that the U.S. must 
also develop a medium-term plan for centrists, politicians 
throughout Iraq.  Particularly, he said, the North needs 
assistance in developing democratic institutions and he 
described the two main political parties, PUK and KDP, as 
autocratic and oligarchic.  Saleh recommended that the U.S. 
strengthen NGO capacity building, women's programs and the 
media. He pointed out that the most- read newspapers in the 
North are party affiliated. 
 
----------- 
Leith Kubba 
----------- 
 
4.  (C) PM Advisor Leith Kubba said that it is essential to 
support centrist Iraqi politicians to compete with the 
financially backed political parties, particularly SCIRI. 
Although he said that the Da,wa party remains popular, he 
attributed SCIRI,s success in the provincial assemblies to 
its unlimited resources from Iran. Kubba, while admiring the 
Prime Minister for not being corrupt, said Jafari,s ethics 
might hurt him in the end.  He said the Prime Minister is not 
using his position to strengthen his chances to win in the 
next elections.  (Comment: Kubba considers Jafari a moderate 
Islamist. End Comment.)  Kubba said centrists must come 
together if they want to win in the next elections.  If 
moderates do not receive assistance, Kubba expects SCIRI to 
win in the next elections.  Interestingly, Kubba commented 
that the centrists were building their base around Ayad 
Allawi, who appears to be attracting both Sunni and Shia 
moderates.  (Comment: Kubba said that he personally is 
assessing the situation to determine see whether he wants to 
be in politics or continue to be a technocrat in the 
Government.  He said that, if he chooses politics, he will 
consider approaching Allawi. End Comment.) 
 
----------------------------------------- 
Would Sistani Interfere in the Elections? 
----------------------------------------- 
 
5.  (C) While most interlocutors believe that Sistani will 
not interfere in the next elections, Leith Kubba said Sistani 
has respect for PM Ja,fari's ethics but he realizes that 
Ja,fari does not have enough backing.  He predicted that 
Sistani would &order SCIRI8 to join forces with Da,wa for 
the December elections.  However, Kubba does not expect 
Jafari to negotiate his place from a strong position because 
of his administration's the poor performance of the 
government.  While Kubba admitted that Jafari lacks executive 
skills, he also said that all parties are working against 
him.  Saleh, however, went further, saying that, as soon as 
the constitution is completed, he expects the Government to 
collapse.  He sheepishly added, &There are some people 
working on it.8 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
6.  (C) During the drawn-out constitution discussions at the 
KDP headquarters August 15, there was plenty of speculation 
among the second-tier Kurdish leaders of dissolving the 
National Assembly and going promptly to new elections.  It is 
not clear this would help the political center.  In the 
January 2005 elections it was evident that aside from the 
Allawi campaign list, none of the centrists had much 
experience, financing or organization to compete.  So far, we 
see no reason to change that assessment.  We expect the 
December elections to have three competing voices -- the 
Islamists, the centrists moderates, and the Kurdish Parties. 
Roughly four months away from the election, the hope of the 
centrists seems to revolve around former Prime Minister 
Allawi.  His As many contacts have said to us, the centrists 
have neither the experience, the finances or the 
organizational skills to successfully carry themselves to the 
next elections.  relative success in the last elections and 
the concerns of the moderates over the draft of the Iraqi 
constitution are building more contributing factors 
tointerest in Allawi,s low-key drive to build a broad 
political front.  Not all political observers think that 
Allawi is going anywhere far.  For example, former Allawi 
ally Qassem Daoud dismisses the significance of the political 
allies that Allawi is trying to entice into his camp.  In 
addition, while Allawi did the best of any secular party 
aside from the Kurds, his campaign last time was poorly run. 
It is not at all clear it will be any better this time, 
especially if there are early elections and Allawi's 
coalition-building is not finished.  current popularity, 
which is giving more hope to the moderates.  At the same 
time, Iraqis expect strong Sunni participation in the 
December elections, many of who represent Islamist views. 
All reporting indicates that that both Shia and Sunni 
Islamists will continue to receive financial backing from 
neighboring countries.  Both Saleh and Kubba predict that, 
without financial assistance to the moderates, their voice in 
the December elections will be weak at best.  The Islamists 
and the Kurdish parties have the means to ensure their voices 
are heard.  The moderates, however, will not be competitive 
without assistance.  End Comment. 
 
 
 
Khalilzad