US embassy cable - 02STATE193342

C O N F I D E N T I A L STATE 193342 
 
JAKARTA PASS TO DILI 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/01/12 
TAGS: PREL, PHUM, ENRG, EAID, ID, TT 
SUBJECT: SECRETARY'S MEETING WITH EAST TIMOR PRESIDENT 
GUSMAO 
 
CLASSIFIED BY EAP ACTING A/S CHRISTOPHER J. LAFLEUR. 
REASON 1.5(D). 
 
1. (U) OCTOBER 1, 2002, 1100-1130, SECRETARY'S OUTER 
 
OFFICE. 
 
2. (U) PARTICIPANTS: 
 
UNITED STATES: 
 
SECRETARY POWELL 
SPOKESMAN RICHARD BOUCHER 
CHARGE D'AFFAIRES SHARI VILLAROSA 
EAP DEPUTY ASSISTANT SECRETARY MATTHEW DALEY 
S/WCI AMBASSADOR-AT-LARGE PIERRE-RICHARD PROSPER 
EXECUTIVE ASSISTANT CRAIG KELLY 
EAP/IET DESK OFFICER PETER HEMSCH (NOTETAKER) 
 
EAST TIMOR: 
 
PRESIDENT KAY RALA XANANA GUSMAO 
FOREIGN INISTER JOSE RAMOS-HORTA 
ADVISOR TO THE PRESIDENT PAULA PINTO 
CHARGE D'AFFAIRES CONSTANCIO PINTO 
 
3. (C) SUMMARY: PRESIDENT GUSMAO INFORMED SECRETARY 
POWELL ABOUT EAST TIMOR'S PROPOSAL FOR AN INTERNATIONAL 
TRUTH AND JUSTICE COMMISSION ON THE 1999 POST-REFERENDUM 
VIOLENCE IN EAST TIMOR. THE SECRETARY SAID HE WAS 
DISAPPOINTED BY THE VERDICTS THUS FAR RENDERED BY THE 
INDONESIAN AD HOC TRIBUNAL IN JAKARTA; ABASSADOR PROSPER 
DESCRIBED THE TIMORESE PROPOSAL AS "CREATIVE." GUSMAO 
SAID THAT THE BAYU-UNDAN OIL AND GAS FIELD WOULD BEGIN TO 
PRODUCE REVENUE BY 2004, BUT THE MUCH LARGER SUNRISE FIELD 
WOULD NOT COME ON-LINE UNTIL 2008. THE RESULTS OF 
REVENUE-SHARING NEGOTIATIONS WITH AUSTRALIA WOULD 
DETERMINE WHETHER EAST TIMOR WOULD BECOME ANOTHER KUWAIT 
OR ANOTHER CAPE VERDE. GUSMAO OPINED THAT UNTIL THE 
PETROLEUM INCOME CAME ON-LINE, EAST TIMOR WOULD NEED 
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE. IN THIS REGARD, HE 
THANKED THE U.S. FOR OUR AID, PARTICULARLY THE DEMOCRACY 
PROGRAMS, AND SAID THAT HE HOPED THE U.S. WOULD MAINTAIN A 
MILITARY PRESENCE IN THE FUTURE, IF ONLY A LIMITED ONE. 
GUSMAO ASKED FOR ADDITIONAL ASSISTANCE TO HELP BUILD A 
BARRACKS FOR THE EAST TIMOR DEFENSE FORCE. FOLLOWING THE 
MEETING, SECRETARY POWELL AND PRESIDENT GUSMAO SIGNED A 
STATUS OF FORCES AGREEMENT. END SUMMARY. 
 
EAST TIMOR AFTER INDEPENDENCE 
----------------------------- 
 
4. (C) SECRETARY POWELL OPENED BY CONGRATULATING PRESIDENT 
GUSMAO ON EAST TIMOR'S ACHIEVEMENTS OVER THE PAST YEAR, AS 
WELL AS FOR ITS ACCESSION TO THE UN LAST WEEK. PRESIDENT 
GUSMAO SAID THAT WHILE THE HANDOVER OF EXECUTIVE AUTHORITY 
FROM THE UN TO THE TIMORESE HAD GONE SMOOTHLY, HE FACED 
THE TWIN CHALLENGES OF BUILDING MANAGEMENT CAPACITY IN THE 
GOVERNMENT AND FULFILLING THE EXPECTATIONS OF THE PEOPLE. 
THE PEOPLE WERE SHOWING A SPIRIT OF UNDERSTANDING ABOUT 
WHAT INDEPENDENCE COULD AND COULD NOT DELIVER, BUT THEY 
WANTED RESULTS. 
 
INTERNATIONAL TRUTH AND JUSTICE COMMISSION 
------------------------------------------ 
 
5. (C) GUSMAO NOTED THAT EAST TIMOR'S RELATIONS WITH 
INDONESIA WERE GOOD, AS EVIDENCED BY FOREIGN MINISTER 
RAMOS-HORTA'S UPCOMING VISIT TO JAKARTA TO ATTEND MEETINGS 
OF THE SOUTHWEST PACIFIC FORUM AND EAST TIMOR-INDONESIA 
JOINT COMMISSION.   HOWEVER, GUSMAO SAID, THERE WERE 
RESIDUAL ISSUES THAT REMAINED -- GUSMAO HAD BEEN 
DISAPPOINTED BY THE VERDICTS THUS FAR AT INDONESIA'S AD 
HOC TRIBUNAL ON THE 1999 POST-REFERENDUM VIOLENCE.    RAMOS- 
HORTA THEN OUTLINED EAST TIMOR'S POSITION ON PROSECUTING 
THE PERPETRATORS OF THE POST-REFERENDUM VIOLENCE. THE 
FOREIGN MINISTER SAID THAT GIVEN THE TRIBUNAL'S FAILURE, 
THE UNIVERSAL CRITICISM IT HAS RECEIVED, AND THE LACK OF 
ANY INDICATION THAT IT WOULD DELIVER IN THE FUTURE, THE 
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY FACED THREE CHOICES. THE FIRST, 
TO DO NOTHING, WOULD BE A DISSERVICE TO THE VICTIMS OF THE 
VIOLENCE. THE SECOND CHOICE, THE FORMATION OF AN 
INTERNATIONAL TRIBUNAL, WAS PROBLEMATIC -- EVEN IF IT 
PASSED THE UN SECURITY COUNCIL IT WOULD LACK A STRONG 
MANDATE OR ADEQUATE FUNDING. FURTHERMORE, INDONESIA WOULD 
BE UNLIKELY TO COOPERATE WITH A TRIBUNAL AND SUCH A 
PROCESS COULD SERIOUSLY DAMAGE THE DILI-JAKARTA 
RELATIONSHIP. 
 
6. (C) RAMOS-HORTA SAID THAT AFTER EXTENSIVE CONSULTATIONS 
IN EAST TIMOR BOTH WITHIN THE GOVERNMENT AND WITH CIVIL 
SOCIETY, THE TIMORESE WERE PROPOSING A THIRD OPTION: THE 
FORMATION OF AN INTERNATIONAL TRUTH AND JUSTICE COMMISSION 
(ITJC). IN THIS SCENARIO, UN SECRETARY-GENERAL ANNAN 
WOULD APPOINT A SPECIAL RAPPORTEUR FOR A THREE-MONTH 
PERIOD TO STUDY THE ISSUE, GIVING THE INDONESIA AD HOC 
TRIBUNAL MORE TIME TO SHOW RESULTS. IF THE AD HOC 
TRIBUNAL FAILED TO ACHIEVE CONVICTIONS, THE RAPPORTEUR 
WOULD RECOMMEND, AND THE SECRETARY-GENERAL WOULD APPROVE, 
THE FORMATION OF AN ITJC WITH THREE-TO-FIVE JUDGES. ONCE 
THE JUDGES ISSUE THEIR REPORT, THE SECURITY COUNCIL WOULD 
APPROVE IT, AND INDIVIDUAL COUNTRIES COULD TAKE ACTION 
AGAINST THE ACCUSED AS THEY SEE FIT. EXAMPLES OF PUNITIVE 
ACTION RANGE FROM BILATERAL DEMANDS THAT ACCUSED OFFICERS 
BE FIRED FROM THEIR POSITIONS IN THE INDONESIAN MILITARY, 
TO A SIMPLE VISA BAN. RAMOS-HORTA SAID THAT UN HIGH 
COMMISSIONER FOR HUMAN RIGHTS (AND FORMER UN SPECIAL 
REPRESENTATIVE IN EAST TIMOR), SERGIO DE MELLO, LIKED THE 
ITJC IDEA AND WOULD SHORTLY SEND A LETTER TO SECRETARY- 
GENERAL ANNAN SUPPORTING IT. 
 
7. (C) SECRETARY POWELL SAID THAT WE TOO HAD BEEN 
DISAPPOINTED BY THE VERDICTS AT THE AD HOC TRIBUNAL. 
AMBASSADOR PROSPER DESCRIBED THE ITJC PROPOSAL AS 
INTERESTING, AND CREATIVE IN ITS EMPHASIS ON ESTABLISHING 
A PERMANENT RECORD OF TRUTH. HE EXPRESSED OUR WILLINGNESS 
TO IMMEDIATELY ENGAGE WITH THE TIMORESE ON THEIR PROPOSAL. 
 
TIMOR GAP 
---------- 
 
8. (C) GUSMAO SAID THAT THE BAYU-UNDAN OIL AND GAS FIELD 
IN THE TIMOR GAP WOULD BEGIN TO PRODUCE REVENUE IN 2004, 
THOUGH IT WAS DIFFICULT TO JUDGE THE AMOUNT OF EARNINGS. 
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM $40 TO $200 MILLION, I.E. MORE THAN 
THE CURRENT NATIONAL BUDGET. GUSMAO SAID THAT THE MUCH 
LARGER SUNRISE FIELD WOULD NOT BE PRODUCTIVE UNTIL 2008, 
AND SINCE NEGOTIATIONS WITH AUSTRALIA FOR A REVENUE- 
SHARING AGREEMENT WERE NOT YET CONCLUDED, HE WOULD 
APPRECIATE THE SECRETARY'S HELP WITH THE AUSTRALIANS. 
RAMOS-HORTA SAID THE TIMORESE SAW THE TIMOR GAP ISSUE AS 
BIGGER THAN OIL; FOR EXAMPLE, IF AUSTRALIA AGREED TO 
ENFORCE TIMOR'S EXCLUSIVE ECONOMIC ZONE, THE TIMORESE 
WOULD GAIN SOME $100 MILLION IN FISHERIES REVENUE 
ANNUALLY. THE SECRETARY OPINED THAT INTERNATIONAL 
ARBITRATION WAS AN OPTION TO CONSIDER, AND MENTIONED THAT 
HE WAS IN REGULAR CONTACT WITH HIS AUSTRALIAN COUNTERPART. 
 
DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE 
---------------------- 
 
9. (C) GUSMAO SAID THAT UNTIL THE PETROLEUM INCOME CAME ON 
LINE, EAST TIMOR WOULD NEED SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT 
ASSISTANCE. IN THIS REGARD, HE THANKED THE U.S. FOR OUR 
AID, PARTICULARLY THE DEMOCRACY PROGRAMS, WHICH HE SAID 
WERE HELPFUL IN PROMOTING A "DEMOCRATIC CONSCIOUSNESS." 
GUSMAO SINGLED OUT THE INTERNATIONAL REPUBLICAN AND 
NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTES FOR PRAISE, AND NOTED THAT 
THE RECENTLY ARRIVED PEACE CORPS VOLUNTEERS WERE A DYNAMIC 
GROUP. HE ALSO SAID THAT THE U.S. MILITARY PRESENCE IN 
EAST TIMOR, HOWEVER SMALL, WAS GREATLY APPRECIATED, AND 
ASKED IF THE STATE OR DEFENSE DEPARTMENTS COULD ASSIST 
WITH THE BUILDING OF A MODERN BARRACKS FOR THE EAST TIMOR 
DEFENSE FORCE. 
 
10. (C) THE SECRETARY DID NOT RESPOND TO THE BARRACKS 
REQUEST. 
 
POWELL