US embassy cable - 02AMMAN5692

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 005692 
 
SIPDIS 
 
USTR FOR NED SAUMS 
CAIRO ALSO FOR FAS ASIF CHAUDRY 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/29/2012 
TAGS: PREL, ECON, EINV, EAGR, PINR, JO 
SUBJECT: MINOR CABINET RESHUFFLE UNLIKELY TO RESULT IN ANY 
POLICY CHANGES 
 
 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR EDWARD W. GNEHM FOR REASONS 1.5 (b) AND (d) 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. (C) The Palace announced a minor Cabinet reshuffle on 
September 26 involving five portfolios.  Amman had been rife 
with rumors of a reshuffle since the King's August 15 
announcement that elections were postponed until the Spring. 
In recent conversations with the Ambassador, several young, 
progressive Cabinet members--including Bassam Awadullah, 
Fawwaz Zo'bi, and Saleh Bashir--spoke heatedly about what 
they perceived as the real reason for the reshuffle--an 
attempt by the PM to undermine them and their reform efforts. 
 While some outgoing ministers may be on the outs with the 
Prime Minister, several will likely be re-appointed to other 
positions within the government.  The Cabinet reshuffle 
portends no major policy change.  End Summary. 
 
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CABINET RESHUFFLE: MOSTLY ECONOMIC PORTFOLIOS 
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2. (C) King Abdullah and Prime Minister Ragheb instituted a 
minor Cabinet reshuffle on September 26.  The following are 
the new ministers: 
 
Minister of National Economy: Samer Tawil (former Secretary 
General of the Ministry of Trade and Industry), replacing Dr. 
Muhammad Halaiqa. 
 
Minister of Social Development: Dr. Ruwaida Ma'ita (former 
President of the al-Hashimiyeh University), replacing Dr. 
Tammam al-Ghoul. 
 
Minister of Health: Dr. Walid al-Ma'ani (former Minister of 
Higher Education), replacing Dr. Faleh al-Nasser. 
 
Minister of Higher Education: Mohammad Hamdan (former 
Secretary General of the Higher Council for Science and 
 
SIPDIS 
Technology), replacing Dr. Waleed al-Maani (who moved to the 
health ministry). 
 
Minister of Agriculture: Trad al-Fayez (former Senate 
member), replacing Dr. Muhammad Duwairi. 
 
3. (C) The Cabinet reshuffle had been rumored since the 
King's August 15 announcement that elections would be 
postponed until Spring.  The most important portfolio that 
changed hands was likely the Ministry of National Economy, 
whose main responsibility has been to deal with investment 
issues.  The Prime Minister replaced old hand Mohammad 
Halaiqa, who had shepherded Jordan's accession to the WTO and 
FTA negotiations with the United States.  His influence and 
effectiveness had declined over the past year, probably 
because of personality conflicts with Abul Ragheb.  His 
replacement, Samer Tawil, is personally close to the Prime 
Minister, but he does not enjoy particularly close 
relationships with other members of the economic team -- 
including trade minister Saleh Bashir, for whom he worked as 
deputy in the Ministry of Industry and Trade -- or with the 
King.  Tawil, an accountant and businessman, is well know to 
the embassy as a competent problem-solver.  He has the same 
pro-reform inclinations as Halaiqa, but he does not have 
Halaiqa's stature in the community.  It remains to be seen if 
Tawil will be more effective than his predecessor Halaiqa in 
addressing investment climate concerns. 
 
4. (C) In a private conversation with the Ambassador before 
the reshuffle was announced, Minister of Planning Bassam 
Awadullah mentioned increasing friction between Halaiqa and 
the PM.  According to Awadullah, the PM had purposefully 
marginalized Halaiqa and Halaiqa had become passive in 
meetings of the Council of Ministers.   Awadullah told the 
Ambassador that the King favors Halaiqa and will probably 
re-appoint him to another government position.  Awadullah 
also predicted a similar reassignment for Tammam al-Ghoul, 
the former Minister of Social Development, who despite her 
ousting during the recent shuffle was still considered 
"solid" by both the Cabinet and the King.  Her replacement at 
the Ministry of Social Development, Ruwaida Ma'ita, is 
well-connected, but also well respected in the academic 
community as a serious professional. 
 
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RESHUFFLE REFLECTS INTERNAL POLITICS IN CABINET 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
5. (C) While the Cabinet reshuffle may not lead to any major 
policy changes, it has underscored the division in the 
Cabinet between the ambitious, young reformers (who tend to 
be close to King Abdullah), and those members who favor a 
more cautious, gradual approach to reform.  PM Abul Ragheb 
leads the latter, while Halaiqa was seen as a leader of the 
former.  In discussions over the past two weeks, several 
Cabinet members complained to the Ambassador that the PM's 
real motive for the Cabinet reshuffle was to undermine the 
influence of the young reformers.  Good sources report that 
initially the PM tried to drop Awadullah from the government 
but was told firmly by the Palace that that would not happen. 
 The PM then focused on Saleh Bashir.  Bassam Awadullah told 
the Ambassador that he lobbied the King directly for Bashir 
to remain and the King agreed (reversing his earlier 
decision).  Bashir told the Ambassador that the PM had 
offered him Halaiqa's position as the Minister of National 
Economy.  Bashir refused, saying he preferred to stay where 
he was or return to the private sector rather than go to a 
position, where he had seen Halaiqa marginalized.  Tawil, who 
now had no job, was given Halaiqa's position. 
6. (C) While the King checked the PM's ability to cleanse the 
Cabinet of progressives, the PM has replaced Halaiqa with 
fiscally-conservative Minister of Finance Michel Marto as the 
Cabinet's chair of the Economic and National Development 
Committee.  This is a blow to progressive Cabinet members, 
whose initiatives and reform agendas clash with the mandate 
of the fiscally-conservative Marto.  For example, Zo'bi on 
several occasions has charged that Marto and the PM are 
opposing his efforts to liberalize the IT sector.  According 
to Zo'bi, the PM had recently warned him not to directly 
lobby the King in favor of broad band.  However, following 
the King's strong endorsement of the IT sector--seen this 
week by his high-profile involvement with the Information and 
Communications Technology Forum--the PM called Zo'bi to 
congratulate him on his efforts at the conference and to 
express his desire to discuss the broad band issue.  Perhaps, 
said Zobi, the PM's political instincts will help turn the 
PM's conservative attitude on the IT sector. 
 
7. (C) Despite the larger internal politics at play with the 
reshuffle, we believe that one of the PM's motives for the 
reshuffle was to get rid of several ineffectual ministers 
(some would even put Bashir, who has yet to be identified 
with a major policy initiative, into this category).  We are 
also hopeful that the changes at the Health and Agriculture 
Ministries will put more effective individuals in charge of 
these politically sensitive portfolios.  Dr. Waleed Maani has 
some prior business experience in the health field.  This is 
in contrast to his predecessor, who tended to take populist 
positions on IPR and drug pricing issues.  Dr. Faleh 
al-Nasser had also been blocked by the massive health 
ministry bureaucracy in making badly needed reforms in the 
sclerotic ministry. 
 
8. (C) Trad Fayez, an ex-diplomat, replaces an agricultural 
scientist at the agriculture ministry.  Despite an apparent 
personal lack of agriculture experience, Fayez's family is 
very involved in Jordan Valley farming.  We understand his 
replacement of the ineffectual Dr. Duwairi signals a 
commitment by the King and government to implement tough new 
agriculture reforms under a new national agriculture strategy 
that will be announced later this month (septel). 
 
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COMMENT 
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9.  (C)  The tension between the younger and more progressive 
ministers, those eager for change, and the more conservative 
PM and other ministers has been on the rise.  The PM saw the 
reshuffle as a chance to reduce the influence of the younger 
progressives but he was ultimately checked by the King, whose 
affinity lies with this younger group.  That being said, for 
the moment, the PM and the conservatives seem to have the 
upper hand.  The King and the government are focused on 
regional difficulties they expect to face in the months ahead 
-- both in Iraq and Palestine.  Their eye is on elections in 
the Spring.  We may, therefore, see a hiatus in the economic 
reform process to which the King, and we believe even the 
Prime Minister, are committed.  While there may be few, if 
any, major new reform initiatives over the coming months, we 
do not expect backtracking on reforms already made or in the 
works. 
 
10. (U) Bios on the new ministers will follow in septel. 
GNEHM