US embassy cable - 05KINSHASA1320

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 KINSHASA 001320 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/16/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, KDEM, KPKO, CG, UN 
SUBJECT: GROWING LOGISTICS PROBLEMS TRHEATEN VOTER 
REGISTRATION CALENDAR 
 
REF: KINS 1317 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Roger Meece.  Reason 1.4 (b/d). 
 
1. (C) Summary: Accumulating reports of logistics problems in 
the ongoing and critically important voter registration 
process prompted an extraordinary meeting of the CIAT with 
the Independent Election Commission (CEI) on August 12, and a 
broader meeting chaired by President Kabila on August 15. 
While over 4 million voters have been registered to-date in 
five provinces and Kinshasa, the meetings clearly revealed 
the extent of current problems.  Only 151 of a planned 1,195 
registration centers in Katanga, for example, have been 
opened, with similar figures reported for the Kasais and 
elsewhere.  The CEI President outlined steps being taken to 
address the problems, and MONUC has stepped up efforts to 
support equipment distribution. Kabila, the GDRC Vice 
Presidents, and others all expressed grave concerns, however, 
of the potential impact of the problems on the overall 
election calendar, with particular concern about the ability 
to hold the constitutional referendum in November.  The CEI 
President, EU Ambassador and others cautioned that 
&catastrophe8 scenarios are premature, and all reaffirmed 
the critical importance of maintaining the underlying 
integrity of the election calendar.  Another Kabila-chaired 
assessment meeting is scheduled for next week to assess 
progress, and the effectiveness of corrective actions.  End 
summary. 
 
Growing Registration Numbers 
----------------------------- 
 
2. (SBU) The critically important voter registration process 
in the DRC is continuing, with growing numbers of registered 
voters.  As of August 15, over 4 million voters have been 
registered. Voter registration has been completed in 
Kinshasa, and is underway in five provinces.  The call from 
Etienne Tshisekedi,s UDPS party to boycott the registration 
process appears generally to be ineffective, with good 
turnout reported at all registration centers opened thus far. 
 One registration center in the UDPS stronghold of Mbuji Mayi 
(Eastern Kasai) was attacked and largely destroyed last week, 
although fortunately Independent Election Commission (CEI) 
personnel managed to evacuate the building and rescue all 
sensitive materials and equipment.  Even in the Kasais, 
however, there is a relatively good showing at open 
registration centers. 
 
But Significant Problems Have Developed 
--------------------------------------- 
 
3. (C) Despite the good news of successful registration 
operations at operating centers, growing reports of logistics 
problems have revealed serious problems in many provinces, 
particularly in rural areas.  These reports prompted the 
International Committee to Accompany the Transition (CIAT) to 
hold an extraordinary meeting with CEI officials on Friday, 
August 12 to review the status of registration operations. 
This was followed by a lengthy August 15 meeting chaired by 
President Kabila involving Vice Presidents Ruberwa, Bemba, 
and Z,Ahidi Ngoma, National Assembly President Kamitatu, 
Senate President Mgsr. Marini, the Ministers of Interior and 
Defense, CEI President Malu Malu, other senior GDRC 
officials, and CIAT Ambassadors. 
 
4. (C) The status report and figures provided by Malu Malu at 
the two assessment meetings were indicative of the severity 
of the logistics problems.  For example, while registration 
operations have been underway in Orientale province since 
July 25, as of August 15 only 493 of a planned 1,069 
registration centers were operating.  In populous Katanga 
province, registration started August 7, but only 180 of a 
planned 1,195 centers were open by August 15.  Western and 
Eastern Kasai reported 95 of 636 planned centers, and 111 of 
826 planned centers operating as of Sunday evening.  Bas 
Congo was in better shape, with all the 515 centers in 
operation, although a fair number of these only opened in 
recent days.  The CEI has already extended registration 
operations in Bas Congo and Orientale for a minimum of an 
additional week beyond the planned August 14 conclusion to 
compensate for late openings, although further extensions in 
various provinces threaten the availability of personnel and 
equipment for the beginning of registration operations in the 
three Kivu provinces (North and South Kivu, Maniema), all 
scheduled to begin August 21, and subsequently Equateur and 
Bandundu provinces. 
 
5. (C) Delving into the details behind the figures, problems 
center on deployment of equipment and materials to remote 
rural areas, a significant number of which lack road access. 
At the August 15 meeting, Malu Malu reported that most 
materials have now been sent to the central provincial and 
territorial administrative centers.  The delayed deployment, 
however, has also created a significant shortage of trained 
personnel in various centers, as kits are needed for the 
initial training programs.  These problems have been 
magnified by a number of DRC parliamentarians, many of whom 
are now in their home areas during a parliamentary break, who 
have attempted to block back-up deployment of trained 
registration personnel from other areas, insisting on the 
hiring of local personnel, in essence to promote local 
employment. 
 
Grave GDRC Concern 
------------------ 
 
6. (C) At the August 15 meeting, Kabila and the other senior 
GDRC officials expressed grave concerns over the developing 
registration picture.  All of the GDRC Vice Presidents 
expressed concerns about the potential impact on the overall 
election calendar, particularly given the obvious need for 
extended registration periods in a number of areas.  VP 
Ruberwa went further, openly speculating as to whether 
elections could be held if registration totals could not be 
brought up to at least 50 percent of the 26 -27 million 
voters used as a working estimate for election planning 
purposes.  Assembly President Kamitatu also pointed out that 
there is a growing discrepancy between urban and rural 
registration.  While the logistically easier urban centers 
are experiencing relatively good registration figures, rural 
areas are clearly underrepresented in totals to-date, given 
the relative scarcity of functioning rural registration 
centers. 
 
7. (C) The comments reflected concerns that CIAT members had 
expressed in the August 12 meeting.  In both sessions, there 
was considerable debate as to whether the planned November 27 
constitutional referendum date could be maintained in view of 
the registration problems.  Several possible scenarios were 
offered, including the possibility of trying to hold the 
referendum on the basis of incomplete national registration 
efforts, or delaying the referendum vote.  Some of the GDRC 
officials wondered if, in fact, general elections can be held 
on time, while recognizing that failure to do so by June 30, 
2006 would carry disastrous consequences. 
 
8. (C) Other concerns were also noted, including ongoing 
security issues in several areas in eastern DRC (e.g. the 
Kivus, Ituri District, parts of northern Katanga).  As well, 
the politically-sensitive issue of the large numbers of DRC 
refugees still in Tanzania, numbering around 150,000, was 
also discussed.  While conditions for immediate repatriation 
for these refugees is problematic, Malu Malu reported that 
there are rumors in the refugee camps that if DRC refugees do 
not return to South Kivu during the upcoming registration 
period, they will lose their DRC citizenship.  Other 
variations of these rumors are also being circulated, 
presumably by those seeking for political reasons to push 
large numbers to repatriate soon.  Malu Malu is planning to 
travel to South Kivu and Kigoma, Tanzania, later this week to 
support a stepped-up education efforts to convey accurate 
information. 
 
Moving Forward 
-------------- 
 
9. (C) Malu Malu outlined a complex series of measures that 
the CEI has underway to address the various shortages.  For 
example, former trainers are selectively being used as 
registration operators where feasible to address critical 
local problems.  Others are being redeployed to address 
urgent needs.  An emergency reserve of ten thousand 
registration machines is being utilized to address shortfalls 
in critical areas.  Churches and other local groups have been 
pressed into service to help get registration machines, 
materials, and people to remote locations.  GDRC customs 
services have been ordered to give priority to clearing 
rapidly all elections-related incoming equipment and supply 
shipments.  Local transporters have been enlisted to bolster 
deployment operations from administrative centers to specific 
sites in key areas, although care needs to be exercised in 
this area to ensure the security of shipment of sensitive 
materials, and that the CEI,s strained budget is not fatally 
broken by unbudgeted new commitments.  MONUC, not yet 
authorized by the UNSC to provide full logistics support, has 
also sought to up its existing support effort including 
diverting aircraft as feasible to address the most critical 
distribution needs.  Malu Malu methodically addressed in some 
way every articulated concern, while acknowledging the need 
for further work. 
 
10. (C) While acknowledging the severity of the current 
problems, Malu Malu, UN SRSG Swing, and the EU Ambassador 
also sought to provide some perspective on the overall 
situation, underscoring that it is premature to be looking at 
&catastrophe8 scenarios.  Stepped-up immediate MONUC 
support, hopefully rapid UNSC action to authorize increased 
MONUC election logistical activities, and the various 
measures being employed by the CEI are addressing the most 
serious problems.  All in the August 15 meeting firmly agreed 
that it is imperative to ensure that the Constitutional 
referendum be held as quickly as possible, ideally on the 
proposed November 27 target date, but at minimum before the 
end of the year.  CEI staff and foreign experts are quietly 
examining how far registration programs can be extended, and 
the impact of various options on the referendum date.  Malu 
Malu acknowledged that already it is clear that the full 
voter registration lists cannot be fully scrubbed via the 
central data bank to eliminate all duplicates or other 
problems prior to the referendum, but this in and of itself 
is a secondary issue and should not preclude going ahead with 
the referendum vote. 
 
11. (C) All agreed that any efforts by politicians or others 
to block deployment of trained registration operators, or 
indeed any actions to impede registration operations, are 
unacceptable and must be stopped immediately.  The CEI was 
encouraged with the full backing of all present to proceed to 
utilize its personnel as it sees fit and report any problems 
to the relevant party or GDRC leaders and the CIAT.  Full 
utilization of civil society or other resources, including 
commercial transporters as budget resources permit, was also 
supported.  A meeting is to be held as soon as possible 
involving the CEI, the Ministers of Interior and Defense, and 
other senior officials to address specific security issues 
impeding registration efforts.  Roughly two thousand 
registration machines used in Kinshasa have now had data 
transferred to other media, with hard drives reinitialized 
for use elsewhere.  Available now for redeployment, there are 
a sufficient number to be used in North and South Kivu and 
Maniema to permit registration to start in those provinces on 
schedule by August 21.  A variety of other specific actions 
were also covered. 
 
12. (C) Malu Malu and the EU Ambassador both asserted that, 
while there will still be problems, overall registration 
numbers should look better by the end of this week, 
reflecting results of the CEI and MONUC corrective efforts 
already underway and others to be implemented in coming days. 
 Kabila proposed, and all accepted, that a follow-up 
assessment meeting involving the same group should be held 
upon return of Malu Malu from his planned South Kivu/Tanzania 
trip.  That meeting is scheduled for Wednesday, August 24. 
The Presidency is also pushing for a joint CIAT/GDRC public 
communique to be issued regarding the gist of the meeting. 
It should be issued, pending concurrence from all CIAT 
members, Tuesday or Wednesday, August 16 or 17. 
 
Comment: Serious, But Not Fatal Issues, At Least Yet 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
13. (C) Comment: In some ways, the logistical problems are 
not surprising.  It has long been recognized that the 
difficulties of organizing registration and general elections 
in a country the size of Western Europe, but largely lacking 
all infrastructure, are daunting.  In addition, there is in 
essence no past experience.  This is the first time a valid 
election process has been undertaken in the DRC since 
independence, and inevitably there is a learning curve, 
particularly the problems of reaching all parts of the DRC,s 
vast and remote rural areas.  Nonetheless, the magnitude of 
the current problems and the implications for the general 
election process are sobering. 
 
14. (C) In our view, DPKO/New York contributed to this 
problem by delaying its formal request to the UNSC for 
increased MONUC logistics support authority for at least two 
to three months, for reasons that are not clear to us. 
Nonetheless, at this point, the UNSC appears to be moving 
quickly to act on the SYG,s recommendations.  In Kinshasa, 
the CEI seems to have a clear-eyed view of the problems and 
its options, and is working with MONUC and all other parties 
to address problems as effectively as possible.  In the 
August 12 and 15 senior-level meetings, all participants were 
very clear as to the critical importance of maintaining the 
basic integrity of the election calendar - specifically, 
ensuring a successful constitutional referendum before the 
December 31 needed extension of the transition period, and 
the necessity of completing the full election process before 
June 30, 2006.  Nobody  expected that this initial DRC 
election process would be perfect, and it certainly will not 
be.  We believe, however, the seriousness accorded to the 
process by senior-level officials in the GDRC as well as the 
CIAT and MONUC augers well that the basic integrity of the 
process will be maintained. 
 
15. (C) A set of coordination meetings ranging from technical 
to senior political levels involving donor governments, 
MONUC, the CEI, and the GDRC is continuing to identify and 
address problems.  A series of specific efforts, bolstered by 
results of the August 12 and 15 meetings is underway. 
Hopefully, agreement will be reached soon in the UNSC 
explicitly giving a green light to expanded MONUC support 
activities.  The latest problems do not represent the biggest 
problems that have challenged the DRC transition process, 
only the latest.  While substantial, like the others, they 
can be addressed, and unlike most other problems, they are 
largely technical in nature rendering them far more 
susceptible to solutions in Kinshasa,s convoluted political 
environment.  The August 24 assessment meeting will provide 
another good check on the results of the measures being 
undertaken to address the problems, and as necessary an 
opportunity to look at further steps.  End comment. 
 
MEECE