US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI6339

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 NEW DELHI 006339 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/16/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, ECON, EFIN, PBTS, EAID, MOPS, PTER, IN, Indian Domestic Politics 
SUBJECT: PM INDEPENDENCE DAY SPEECH: THE WORLD IS WATCHING 
US 
 
Classified By: Charge Robert O. Blake, Jr. for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1. (U) SUMMARY:  In his second annual independence day speech 
to the nation, PM Manmohan Singh echoed themes from his 
recent address to the US Congress regarding India's rising 
economic power, its democratic credentials, its increasing 
engagement with the international system, and the need to 
ensure that the country's rural majority share the benefits 
of these achievements.  Building on remarks he made before 
the G-8 summit, Singh offered a sharp warning that words are 
not enough to insulate the Pakistan peace process from the 
threat of cross-border terrorism.  He was upbeat on US-India 
relations, saying that his visit had been "a major step in 
promoting friendship".  The PM also reiterated his offer of 
dialogue with all elements of Kashmiri society, although 
Hurriyat hardliners dismissed the offer as posturing.  His 
economic message was aimed as much at state governments as 
the audience, emphasizing poverty eradication schemes and the 
need for the common man to feel empowered in dealing with 
government.  Amid an unprecedented police presence in Delhi 
and an unusual spike in publicly reported terrorist threats, 
Delhites heaved a sigh of relief that the day passed without 
any major violent incident.  END SUMMARY. 
 
THE WORLD IS WATCHING: WE MUST FOCUS ON THE COMMMON MAN 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
2. (U) The PM started off his annual August 15 Independence 
Day speech at Red Ford in Delhi (internet link in para 11) 
with the usual patriotic evocations, but shifted quickly to 
India's changed status in the world.  Seven percent annual 
economic growth, explained the PM, had fundamentally altered 
India's prospects, and made the eradication of poverty a real 
possibility "in our times".  As a result, "the entire 
world...is viewing India as an emerging power of these 
times," the PM claimed.  The PM also highlighted how India 
has achieved this growth within a democratic framework that 
values diversity in all its dimensions.  To achieve the 
government's vision for India's future, said Singh, seven 
major areas of improvement required attention:  agriculture, 
irrigation, education, health, employment, urban renewal, and 
infrastructure.  The PM reviewed progress in each of these 
fields, detailing various government programs to deal with 
shortfalls, and urging the states to focus on good 
governance.  The economic message in the speech was as 
notable for what it didn't say as for the explicit message to 
the states. The clear subtext to the bureacracies was that 
they have to become part of the solution, rather than the 
problem.  The PM signaled that the GOI is intent on moving 
forward with economic reform and expects the bureaucrats to 
support, not hinder, this effort.  The PM also gave a 
rhetorical boost to the draft National Rural Employment 
Guarantee Bill, a mammoth spending project that purports to 
provide each able-bodied rural-dweller with a fixed minimum 
amount of paid work per annum.  Critics say such a bill would 
be costly, economically unjustifiable, and prone to 
corruption.  Continuing his domestic focus on the daily lives 
of average Indians, the PM explained his government's 
commitment to social justice and equitable development for 
all; he also mentioned pledges to increase quotas for the 
disadvantaged as a means to this end.  COMMENT: Quota 
expansions are sure to raise the ire of middle class Hindus 
who have in the past supported the BJP.  END COMMENT. 
 
STILL WORKING ON THE BASICS: MANAGING THE WEATHER 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
3. (U) In addition to listing the areas of citizens' needs 
where the government still has much homework, the PM 
mentioned natural disasters whose brunt India had borne in 
the past year.  The tsunami in December, snows of January, 
and floods of July, he said, had a terrible impact on the 
common man, especially in Mumbai.  In a tacit nod to the 
government's failure to maintain infrastructure sufficiently 
to minimize the effect of such disasters, the PM announced 
the establishment of a National Disaster Management Authority. 
 
OFFERS DIALOGUE TO KASHMIRIS, WARNS PAKISTAN 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
4. (C) PM Singh affirmed that Jammu and Kashmir state (J&K) 
was "once again on the path of peace and progress," but 
warned that as long as terrorists continue their attacks, the 
armed forces "will be alert and give them a fitting 
response".  Reiterating his offer to talk to all segments of 
Kashmiri society, the PM insisted, "I have said before and I 
am repeating once again that there is no issue that cannot be 
resolved through a process of discussion and dialogue.  I 
invite everyone to join us to discuss the problems of the 
state of Jammu and Kashmir so that its people can lead a life 
of peace and dignity".  However, he warned, "If violence 
continues, then our response, too, will be hard. I am aware 
the Government of Pakistan has put some checks on the 
activities of terrorists from its soil.  However, it is nor 
possible to achieve success through half-hearted efforts.  It 
is necessary that the entire infrastructure of terrorism is 
totally dismantled."  Some moderate and hardline Hurritat 
members, speaking for themselves and not/not for the All 
Party Hurriyat Conference (APHC) immediately slammed the PM 
for making an empty gesture, but CM Mufti Mohamed Sayeed 
urged the PM to talk to all segments and regions of Kashmiri 
society, and the APHC had not, at time of writing, given an 
official statement.  COMMENT: The APHC's delay in issuing an 
official statement means outright dismissal of the PM's offer 
is unlikely; we hear from more and more sources that dialogue 
will start after the Monsoon session of Parliament.  END 
COMMENT. 
 
ON BALANCE, IT'S (SOMEWHAT) PEACHY WITH PAKISTAN 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
5. (C) Cognizant of the terrorist threats hanging over India, 
the PM was guardedly upbeat about Pakistan, insisting the 
Composite Dialogue was continuing, and, as a result, the 
Srinagar-Muzzafarabad bus was running.  He also hinted 
vaguely at opening similar services from points in other 
states.  The PM mentioned that discussions continued on the 
Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline, and re-affirmed his desire 
to work with all South Asian neighbors to "address the 
challenges of povery, unemployment, and disease.  If India 
and Pakistan are able to work together, then we will have 
many opportunities for making our countries prosperous." 
 
A SHOUT-OUT TO OUR NEIGHBORS 
---------------------------- 
 
6. (U) The PM told his fellow citizens he would travel to 
Afghanistan to strenthen historic ties and support nascent 
democracy there "in all possible ways".  He also was warm 
toward China, with whom India was ready to "deepen our trade 
and cultural relations...for the benefit of the two nations. 
The agreement arrived at between our two countries in April 
has paved the way for a closer relationship." 
THREE CHEERS FOR THE RED, WHITE, AND BLUE IN MOSCOW & DC 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
7. (C) His visit to the US, explained the PM, "has been a 
major step in promoting friendship".  Moreover, the PM 
stressed, "by deepening our economic and technological 
relations, we will be accelerating our own growth. 
Simultaneously, our two democracies can work together to 
strengthen democracy in the world."  In the next breath, 
however, the PM also threw a bouquet to Russia, India's "old 
friend" who had helped the country through "difficult times". 
 COMMENT:  A necessary nod to India's longest and closest 
alliance, but a lead-off with talk of India's newest and most 
important one.  END COMMENT. 
 
THE WORLD WANTS US TO SUCCEED 
----------------------------- 
 
8. (U) Bucking up his countrymen at the close, the PM 
explained "there comes a time in the history of a nation when 
it can be said that the time has come to make history.  We 
are today at the threshold of such an era," and insisted "the 
world wants us to do well and take our rightful place on the 
world stage.  There are no external constraints on our 
development.  If there are hurdles, they are internal.  We 
must seize this moment and grab this opportunity.  We must 
have self-confidence that we are second-to-none, that Indians 
are as good as the best." 
 
COMMENT:  PLAIN MANMOHAN-SPEAK: FOLLOW-THROUGH IS KEY 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
9. (C) COMMENT:  The speech was no flight of rhetorical 
fancy, nor was it a populist harangue.  Indeed, the BJP 
called it "routine," with "nothing new." Instead, a 
technocrat PM outlined in detail what it would take for India 
to take its rightful place on the world stage.  The economist 
in Singh was distinctly visible as he laid out his vision for 
greater prosperity of the nation with economic growth being 
the engine for tackling social problems.  The domestic vision 
is laudable.  The challenge, however, is to realize the 
vision.  High corruption, large numbers of unemployed, lack 
of high literacy levels and a crying need for infrastructural 
development are major impediments to a rapid growth.  Singh 
believes that these problems can be tackled with a concerted 
and sincere effort on the part of the government even though 
government has been the firm foot on the brake of progress 
for almost five decades.  How far this would succeed and how 
much of his vision is shared by the states who have an 
important role in achieving his vision, is something that the 
whole nation will watch carefully. 
 
COMMENT II:  (RELATIVELY) PEACEFUL AND QUIET 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
10. (C) Newspapers said the threat this year from terrorism 
was "five times higher" than in previous years and the police 
presence in New Delhi was more pronounced than any of us have 
seen before.  For over two weeks prior to the speech security 
forces had been sanitizing a radius of three kilometers 
around Red Fort to foil terrorists.  Twenty thousand 
additional police flooded Delhi to intimidate anyone with 
nefarious intentions; police reportedly seized over 50 kilos 
of RDX in Delhi, UP, J&K, and Punjab prior to the speech. 
In this context, the PM shot a clear warning across 
Pakistan's bow about terrorism, and shied away from 
rhetorical fluorishes about peace.  The speech was subdued, 
the mood was somber, yet, most Indians heaved a big sigh of 
relief as the sun set on India's 58th Independence Day. 
There had been no attack on Red Fort, no attacks on religious 
sites, no attack on BJP/RSS offices, no massacre in Kashmir, 
and only one Naxalite attack in Andhra Pradesh.  For India, 
it was an unusually quiet day on which to reflect on how far 
the nation has come, and how far it has yet to go.  END 
COMMENT. 
 
11. (U) Full text of English translation of PM's speech in 
Hindi can be found at 
 
http://pmindia.nic.in/lspeech.asp?id=166 
BLAKE