US embassy cable - 05PARIS5507

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 005507 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPT FOR INR/R/MR; IIP/RW; IIP/RNY; BBG/VOA; IIP/WEU; AF/PA; 
EUR/WE /P/SP; D/C (MCCOO); EUR/PA; INR/P; INR/EUC; PM; OSC ISA 
FOR ILN; NEA; WHITE HOUSE FOR NSC/WEUROPE; DOC FOR ITA/EUR/FR 
AND PASS USTR/PA; USINCEUR FOR PAO; NATO/PA; MOSCOW/PA; 
ROME/PA; USVIENNA FOR USDEL OSCE. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, FR 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT -MIDDLE EAST - GAZA PULLOUT 
PARIS - TUESDAY, AUGUST 16, 2005 
 
(A) SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT: 
 
MIDDLE EAST - GAZA PULLOUT 
 
B) SUMMARY OF COVERAGE: 
 
TODAY'S MAJOR INTERNATIONAL FRONT PAGE AND EDITORIAL STORY IS 
THE PULLOUT FROM GAZA AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE PEACE 
PROCESS BETWEEN THE ISRAELIS AND THE PALESTINIANS. FOR LEFT-OF- 
CENTER LE MONDE, "THE HISTORIC PULLOUT HAS BEGUN." FOR LEFT-OF- 
CENTER LIBERATION, WHICH HEADLINES "GAZA: TWENTY-FOUR HOURS 
FOR A PULLOUT" THE DEPARTURE OF THE ISRAELI SETTLERS IS TAKING 
PLACE "AMIDST TEARS." RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO HEADLINES: "A 
RESIGNED DEPARTURE." ARTICLES ABOUND ON THE PSYCHOLOGICAL 
REPERCUSSIONS OF THE PULLOUT, WHILE EDITORIAL COMMENTARIES 
POINT TO THE "SYMBOLIC" NATURE OF THE PULLOUT (LIBERATION) AND 
THE NEED FOR THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY, NAMELY THE U.S. AND 
THE EU TO HELP IN THE POST-PULLOUT PHASE. IN WEEKLY L'EXPRESS 
EDITORIALIST BERNARD GUETTA TITLES HIS COLUMN "POST-GAZA." 
 
THE SECOND INTERNATIONAL STORY CONCERNS THE IRAQI 
CONSTITUTION. REPORTS NOTE THAT THE DEADLINE HAS BEEN 
POSTPONED FOR A WEEK AND ANALYZE THE THREE BONES OF CONTENTION 
BETWEEN THE THREE COMMUNITIES: "FEDERALISM, THE ROLE OF ISLAM 
IN THE STATE AND HOW TO RE-DISTRIBUTE THE REVENUES FROM OIL." 
RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO CARRIES A MAJOR STORY ON WOMEN IN 
IRAQ, WHO ARE SEEN AS THE MAJOR LOSERS OF THE NEXT 
CONSTITUTION. 
 
LE FIGARO CARRIES AN OP-ED BY HENRY KISSINGER, WHICH WAS 
INITIALLY PUBLISHED IN THE WASHINGTON POST LAST FRIDAY, 
COMPARING THE IRAQI SITUATION TO VIETNAM AND DRAWING LESSONS 
FOR AN EXIT STRATEGY. 
 
(C) SUPPORTING TEXT/BLOCK QUOTES: 
 
MIDDLE EAST - GAZA PULLOUT 
 
"A HIGH-RISK WITHDRAWAL" 
PIERRE ROUSSELIN IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (08/16): "FOR 
ALL PARTIES, THE GAZA PULLOUT IS A HIGH-RISK ADVENTURE. WHILE 
ITS SUCCESS DOES NOT GUARANTEE PEACE, ITS FAILURE WILL 
CERTAINLY CARRY DIRE CONSEQUENCES. IN ISRAEL AS WELL AS AMONG 
THE PALESTINIANS, EVERYONE KNOWS THAT THESE ARE SERIOUS TIMES 
AND THAT THE CONDITIONS OF THE PULLOUT WILL DETERMINE THE 
FUTURE. FOR THE PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY THE CHALLENGE LIES IN 
CONTROLLING HAMAS: IF THE ISLAMISTS TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE 
SITUATION AND REVERT TO ATTACKS AGAINST ISRAEL, REPRISAL WILL 
BE IMMEDIATE. EGYPT ALSO HAS MUCH RIDING ON THE PULLOUT: EGYPT 
HAS BEEN PLAYING A DISCREET BUT MAJOR SECURITY ROLE AND DOES 
NOT WANT THE REGION TO FALL INTO CHAOS. AT THE BORDER TOWN OF 
RAFAH, PALESTINIANS AND EGYPTIANS WILL FOR THE FIRST TIME 
SINCE 1967, BE FACE TO FACE, WITHOUT AN ISRAELI PRESENCE. THE 
PULLOUT WILL BE A SUCCESS ONLY IF IT GIVES THE PALESTINIANS 
HOPE FOR A BETTER FUTURE. THE U.S. AND THE INTERNATIONAL 
COMMUNITY MUST BE READY TO MAKE THE PULLOUT THE START OF A 
TRUE PEACE PROCESS RATHER THAN AN END IN ITSELF." 
 
"A SYMBOL" 
PATRICK SABATIER IN LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION (08/16): "FOR 
THE SETTLERS, SHARON, WHO WAS ONCE THE ARCHANGEL OF JEWISH 
SETTLEMENTS, HAS BECOME THE HORSEMAN OF THE APOCALYPSE. THE 
PULLOUT DOES NOT GUARANTEE A RETURN TO THE ROADMAP. IT COULD 
EVEN SIGNIFY A DESIRE TO CONSOLIDATE A DE FACTO ANNEXATION OF 
THE WEST BANK AS WELL AS A REFUSAL TO NEGOTIATE WITH THE 
PALESTINIANS ON THE STATUS OF JERUSALEM. THE PULLOUT REMAINS 
NEVERTHELESS A SYMBOL. FOR THE FIRST TIME, ISRAEL IS GIVING 
BACK FORMERLY COLONIZED LAND TO THE PALESTINIANS, GIVING THEM 
A CHANCE TO START THE PREMISES OF AN INDEPENDENT STATE. THE 
MANNER IN WHICH THE PULLOUT IS BEING HANDLED IS ALSO SYMBOLIC: 
IT EXEMPLIFIES THE VIRTUES OF THE DEMOCRACY THAT IS ISRAEL. 
FINALLY, THE PULLOUT STANDS AS A SYMBOL OF A VIABLE FUTURE 
THANKS TO THE MATURITY OF THE PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY IN HOW IT 
HAS CURBED ITS EXTREMISTS. WHILE SYMBOLIC, THE PULLOUT'S 
EFFECTS MUST NOT BE MINIMIZED. IN SPITE OF SHARON'S TACTICAL 
REASONS. A STEP HAS BEEN TAKEN. A STEP BACK WHICH MUST BE 
TRANSFORMED INTO A STEP FORWARD: THIS IS WHERE THE AMERICANS 
AND THE EUROPEANS ARE AWAITED SO THAT THE PULLOUT IS A STEP 
TOWARDS PEACE." 
"POST-GAZA" 
BERNARD GUETTA IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER WEEKLY L'EXPRESS (08/16): 
"COULD SHARON BE NAIVE? ISRAEL'S EXTREME RIGHT IS NOT TOTALLY 
WRONG WHEN IT WARNS THAT THE PULLOUT FROM GAZA COULD LEAD TO 
THE CONSOLIDATION OF A TERRORIST STRONGHOLD. NOT ONLY DO THE 
ISLAMISTS REIGN HERE, THEY WILL BE TEMPTED TO PRESENT THE 
PULLOUT AS A RESULT OF THEIR POLICY OF VIOLENCE. BETWEEN 
WEAPONS AND RECONSTRUCTION, HAMAS WILL NOT HESITATE LONG. DOES 
SHARON IGNORE THIS POSSIBLE OUTCOME? FAR FROM IT. NOT ONLY IS 
HE NOT NAIVE, HE HAS INTEGRATED THIS POSSIBLE SCENARIO INTO 
HIS STRATEGY: IF THE PALESTINIANS DO NOT CONTROL THEIR RADICAL 
FRINGES, THEY WILL LOSE THEIR CREDIBILITY WITH THE 
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY. IF MAHMUD ABBAS MANAGES TO CONTROL 
HAMAS AND VIOLENCE BECOMES A THING OF THE PAST, THEN THE 
PALESTINIANS WILL HAVE TO ACCEPT THE PEACE OFFERED BY SHARON. 
IN THEORY THERE IS NOTHING WRONG WITH THIS PLAN. BUT IN 
PRACTICE IT IS PRACTICALLY IMPOSSIBLE FOR ABBAS TO CONTROL 
HAMAS, AND EVEN IF HE WERE ABLE TO DO SO, ABBAS WOULD COME TO 
THE NEGOTIATING TABLE IN SUCH A POSITION OF WEAKNESS THAT THE 
OUTCOME WOULD BE FAILURE. THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT SHARON'S 
INITIATIVE CANNOT LEAD TO PEACE. IT MEANS THAT IF THE U.S. AND 
THE EU WANT TO HOLD ON TO THIS CHANCE FOR PEACE, THEY MUST 
IMMEDIATELY MAKE ALL THE INTERNATIONAL AID TO THE PALESTINIANS 
TRANSIT THROUGH ABBAS, GIVING HIM THE MEANS TO MAKE A 
DIFFERENCE IN GAZA, AND TO PROVE THAT MODERATION HAS ITS OWN 
REWARDS." HOFMANN