US embassy cable - 02ROME4756

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ROME 004756 
 
SIPDIS 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 02        ROME  04756  01 OF 03  020545Z 
FROM U.S. MISSION IN ROME 
 
AMEMBASSY ASMARA FOR AMBASSADOR MCCONNEL AND USAID DIRECTOR 
CHEEMA 
USDA/FAS NAIROBI FOR FRED KESSEL 
STATE FOR ACTING A/S IO, A/S PRM DEWEY, AF AND EA 
USDA/FAS FOR U/S PENN AND RTILSWORTH 
USAID FOR A/USAID NATSIOS, AA/DCHA WINTER AND D/FFP LANDIS 
NSC FOR JDWORKEN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID, AORC, PREF, EAGR, AORC, PREF, EAGR, AORC, PREF, EAGR, EU, WFP, UN, EU    EAID, WFP, UN, EU    EAID, WFP UN 
SUBJECT: ERITREAN MAIN CROP SEASON DROUGHT - DIFFICULT TIMES 
AHEAD 
 
REF: (A) ASMARA 1290 
------- 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1. USMISSION/ROME HUMANITARIAN ATTACHE VISITED ERITREA 
SEPTEMBER 20-26, AND TRAVELED EXTENSIVELY IN DROUGHT 
AFFECTED REGIONS. PROSPECTS FOR THE CURRENT MAIN "KIREMTI" 
HARVEST CROPS AND REGENERATION OF PASTURES ARE POOR 
FOLLOWING SEVERE AND PROLONGED DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN THE 
COUNTRY'S MOST GRAIN PRODUCTIVE AREAS. WIDESPREAD DROUGHT 
WILL EXACERBATE A FOOD SUPPLY SITUATION ALREADY STRESSED BY 
DISPLACEMENT OF WAR-AFFECTED POPULATIONS, THE INFLUX OF 
DEPORTEES FROM ETHIOPIA, AND THE CONTINUING REPATRIATION OF 
REFUGEES FROM SUDAN. END SUMMARY. 
 
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                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 03        ROME  04756  01 OF 03  020545Z 
BACKGROUND 
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2. USMISSION/ROME HUMANITARIAN ATTACHE TIM LAVELLE VISITED 
ERITREA SEPTEMBER 20-26, 2002, AND TRAVELED WITH THE 
ERITREAN RELIEF AND REFUGEE COMMISSION'S (ERREC) DIRECTOR 
GENERAL FOR RELIEF AND LOGISTICS IBRAHIM SAID, WORLD FOOD 
PROGRAM COUNTRY DIRECTOR PATRICK BUCKLEY (IRISH CITIZEN) AND 
STAFF (THE TRIP'S ABLE FACILITATOR) AND UNHCR FIELD OFFICERS 
THOUGHOUT THE FOLLOWING REGIONS: ANSEBA, GASH BARCA AND 
DEDUB. THE TEAM LOGGED 1,067 KILOMETERS BY ROAD OVER FOUR 
DAYS, IN ORDER TO ACCESS FIRST HAND THE PRESENT DROUGHT 
SITUATION. 
 
3. IN GENERAL, ERITREA SUFFERS FROM CHRONIC FOOD SHORTAGES. 
IN GOOD YEARS, THE COUNTRY PRODUCES ONLY ABOUT 80 PERCENT OF 
ITS TOTAL FOOD NEEDS AND IN POORER YEARS NO MORE THAN 50 
PERCENT. INSOFAR AS MOST FARMERS IN ERITREA PRACTICE RAINFED 
AGRICULTURE, FARMERS ARE CONSISTENTLY FACED WITH ANNUAL 
FLUCTUATIONS IN BOTH OUTPUT AND PRICES. EVEN IN GOOD YEARS, 
MOST SMALL FARMERS DO NOT PRODUCE ENOUGH FOOD TO FEED THEIR 
FAMILIES FOR MORE THAN SIX-NINE MONTHS. THIS MEANS THAT FARM 
FAMILIES NEED ACCESS TO NON-FARM INCOME OR TO FOOD AID TO 
SUBSIST. 
 
4. AS A RESULT OF PERIODIC FOOD SHORTAGES, CHILD 
MALNUTRITION IS HIGH. ABOUT 38 PERCENT OF CHILDREN UNDER 
FIVE ARE STUNTED (LOW HEIGHT FOR AGE), 16 PERCENT ARE WASTED 
(LOW WEIGHT FOR AGE), AND 44 PERCENT OF CHILDREN ARE 
UNDERWEIGHT. 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 04        ROME  04756  01 OF 03  020545Z 
5. AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION IN RURAL AREAS IS GENERALLY 
CHARACTERIZED BY LOW PRODUCTIVITY. GIVEN THE LACK OF 
AGRICULTURAL EXTENSION SERVICES AND CREDIT, POOR FARM-TO- 
MARKET ROADS, ETC., THERE IS LITTLE LIKELIHOOD THAT THIS 
SITUATION IS GOING TO AMELIORATE IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. 
THE FAO OPINES THAT "THE GREEN REVOLUTION HAS BYPASSED 
ERITREA." 
 
6. AS A MATTER OF GOVERNMENT POLICY, INTERNATIONAL NGOS ARE 
RELEGATED LARGELY TO NON-IMPLEMENTATIVE ROLES. GIVEN THE 
DEARTH OF TECHNICALLY QUALIFIED ERITREANS BOTH WITHIN THE 
GOVERNMENT AND LOCAL NGO SECTOR, PROJECT DESIGN AND 
IMPLEMENTATION CAN BE A SLOW PROCESS. 
 
----------------------- 
WHERE WE ARE AT PRESENT 
----------------------- 
 
7. POOR RAINS THIS YEAR HAVE DISRUPTED THE TWO PLANTING 
SEASONS AND THE SITUATION HAS BEEN FURTHER AGGRAVATED BY 
ADVERSE EFFECTS ON THE REGENERATION OF ESSENTIAL 
PASTURELANDS AND GROUND-WATER SUPPLIES. AN ESTIMATED ONE 
MILLION ERITREANS, 80-90 PERCENT OF WHOM ARE LIVING IN RURAL 
AREAS, ARE EXPECTED TO BE DIRECTLY AFFECTED BY THE 2002 
DROUGHTS. IN ADDITION TO INSUFFICIENT RAINFALL, OTHER 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
                           UNCLASSIFIED     PTO5335 
 
PAGE 01        ROME  04756  02 OF 03  020545Z 
ACTION IO-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AF-00    AID-00   AMAD-00  EVG-00   CIAE-00 
      COME-00  CTME-00  INL-00   USNW-00  WHA-00   SRPP-00  EB-00 
      EUR-00   E-00     UTED-00  FDRE-01  VC-00    TEDE-00  INR-00 
      VCE-00   M-00     DCP-01   NSAE-00  NSCE-00  OES-01   OIC-02 
      OMB-01   IRM-00   STR-00   TEST-00  TRSE-00  USIE-00  ECA-00 
      PRM-00   SAS-00     /006W 
                  ------------------F0196F  020731Z /38 
P 020513Z OCT 02 
FM AMEMBASSY ROME 
TO AMEMBASSY ASMARA PRIORITY 
SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6105 
USDA FAS WASHDC PRIORITY 2309 
INFO AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 
AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI 
EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE 
 
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA 
USEU BRUSSELS 2834 
 
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 
USMISSION GENEVA 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 02        ROME  04756  02 OF 03  020545Z 
UNCLAS SECTION 02 OF 03 ROME 004756 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FROM U.S. MISSION IN ROME 
 
AMEMBASSY ASMARA FOR AMBASSADOR MCCONNEL AND USAID DIRECTOR 
CHEEMA 
USDA/FAS NAIROBI FOR FRED KESSEL 
STATE FOR ACTING A/S IO, A/S PRM DEWEY, AF AND EA 
USDA/FAS FOR U/S PENN AND RTILSWORTH 
USAID FOR A/USAID NATSIOS, AA/DCHA WINTER AND D/FFP LANDIS 
NSC FOR JDWORKEN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS:     EAID, AORC, WFP, UN, PREF, EAGR, EU 
SUBJECT: ERITREAN MAIN CROP SEASON DROUGHT - DIFFICULT TIMES 
AHEAD 
 
FACTORS INCLUDE THE LACK OF DRAUGHT ANIMALS, PESTS, GROWING 
WEED INFESTATION AND A REDUCED WORKFORCE WITH A GOODLY 
NUMBER OF ABLE-BODIED 18-40 YEAR OLDS WHO ARQNLISTED INTO 
NATIONAL SERVICE. 
 
8. WHILE THE FINAL 2002 "KIREMTI" PRODUCTION TALLY WILL NOT 
BE KNOWN FOR ANOTHER ONE-TWO MONTHS, AN APPROXIMATE 
BREAKDOWN OF THE NEED FOR 2003 IS PRESENTED AS FOLLOWS: 
 
-DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION - 537,000 METRIC TONS (MTS) 
-DOMESTIC PRODUCTION  - 100,000 MTS (90,000 MTS GRAINS) 
-GSE CARRYOVER STOCKS -  50,000 MTS 
-U.S. TITLE I 2002    -  54,000 MTS (WILL BE USED IN 2003) 
-WFP PRRO DONATION    -  60,000 MTS (SOLICITED FOR 2003) 
-GSE COMMERCIAL IMPORTS  80,000 MTS 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 03        ROME  04756  02 OF 03  020545Z 
-PRIVATE SECTOR IMPORTS  10,000 MTS 
-INFORMAL CROSS-BORDER    80,000 MTS (FROM/THROUGH SUDAN) 
-NGO FOOD DONATIONS   -  17,000 MTS (SOLICITED FOR 2003) 
-BUFFER STOCK NEEDS   -  60,000 MTS 
 
FOOD AID REQUIREMENT  - 150,000 MTS (ESTIMATE/END SEPTEMBER) 
 
9. NOTE: THIS ESTIMATE IS LOWER THAN THE LATEST GOE'S APPEAL 
REQUEST (RELEASED ON SEPTEMBER 2) ASKING FOR 400,000 MTS OF 
GRAIN. WFP IS ALSO IN THE PROCESS OF LAUNCHING AN EMERGENCY 
APPEAL (EMOP) FOR CALENDAR YEAR 2003 FOR 140,400 MTS OF FOOD 
ASSISTANCE TO MEET THE NEEDS OF 600,000 DROUGHT-AFFECTED 
VULNERABLE PERSONS. END NOTE. 
 
------------- 
OTHER FACTORS 
------------- 
 
10. THE GOVERNMENT OF DENMARK ANNOUNCED IN JANUARY 2002 A 
RADICAL DOWNSIZING IN ITS DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE TO ERITREA 
(TO BE TERMINATED FULLY IN 2005). THIS HAS SUBSTANTIVELY 
IMPACTED ON THE 2002-OPERATING BUDGET OF THE GOVERNMENT'S 
(GSE) MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE. MOREOVER, ERITREA CONTINUES 
TO DEAL WITH APPROXIMATELY 60,000 INTERNALLY DISPLACED 
(LIVING IN MAKESHIFT CAMPS) AND RESETTLING SOME 100,000 
REPATRIATED RETURNEES. FINALLY, WHILE THE HIV PREVALENCE 
RATE IS PRESENTLY ESTIMATED TO BE LESS THAN 3 PERCENT AMONG 
ADULTS, THERE IS CONCERN THAT HIV/AIDS AWARENESS CAMPAIGNS 
NEED TO BE INTENSIFIED PARTICULARLY FOR NATIONAL SERVICE 
PERSONNEL IN ORDER TO PREVENT FUTURE ECONOMIC IMPACT. 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 04        ROME  04756  02 OF 03  020545Z 
------------------------------- 
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 
------------------------------- 
 
11. FOOD TONNAGE AND BENEFICIARY NUMBERS WILL NEED TO BE 
FURTHER REFINED BY A FINAL CROP ASSESSMENT IN OCTOBER (AFTER 
THE RAINS STOP). RATHER THAN WAITING FOR THE FINAL CROP 
ASSESSMENT MISSION REPORT, HOWEVER, DONORS SHOULD RESPOND 
WITH AN IMMEDIATE PLEDGING AND DISPATCH OF ADEQUATE 
QUANTITIES OF FOOD AID, TO ARRIVE BEFORE THE COMMENCEMENT OF 
THE "HUNGRY SEASON" IN FEBRUARY 2003. 
 
12. ESTABLISHMENT OF A NATIONAL NUTRITION SURVEILLANCE 
SYSTEM IN COLLABORATION WITH WFP AND ITS UN AGENCY PARTNERS 
IS STRONGLY ENCOURAGED. THIS WILL BE A VITAL STEP IN 
DETERMINING THE INCIDENCE, GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION, AND 
EXTENT OF CHRONIC AND SEASONAL MALNUTRITION, INCLUDING 
VULNERABILITY PROFILES BY GENDER, BACKGROUND AND AGE. 
 
13. DONORS ARE ENCOURAGED TO WORK WITH THE GSE ON IMPROVING 
THE NATIONAL CAPACITY TO COMMERCIALLY IMPORT FOOD ON TIME TO 
WHERE IT IS NEEDED. 
 
14. ERITREA NEEDS ADDITIONAL SUPPORT TO ENHANCE ITS CAPACITY 
TO BETTER UNDERSTAND THE DROUGHT "CLIMATOLOGY" OF THE 
COUNTRY AND STRENGTHEN ITS ABILITY TO MANAGE DROUGHT RISKS. 
 
15. ERITREAN FARMERS HAVE WELL-ESTABLISHED AND STRONG 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
                           UNCLASSIFIED     PTQ8232 
 
PAGE 01        ROME  04756  03 OF 03  020547Z 
ACTION IO-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AF-00    AID-00   AMAD-00  CIAE-00  COME-00 
      CTME-00  WHA-00   SRPP-00  EB-00    EUR-00   E-00     UTED-00 
      FDRE-01  VC-00    TEDE-00  INR-00   VCE-00   M-00     NSAE-00 
      NSCE-00  OES-01   OIC-02   OMB-01   STR-00   TEST-00  TRSE-00 
      USIE-00  EPAE-00  ECA-00   PRM-00   SAS-00     /005W 
                  ------------------F02392  020905Z /38 
P 020513Z OCT 02 
FM AMEMBASSY ROME 
TO AMEMBASSY SMARA PRIORITY 
SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORIY 6106 
USDA FAS WASHDC PRIORITY 2310 
INO RUEHNR/AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
AMEMBASSY DDIS ABABA 
AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI 
EU MEBER STATES COLLECTIVE 
 
AMEMBSSY OTTAWA 
USEU BRUSSELS 2835 
 
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 
USMISSION ENEVA 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 02        ROME  04756  03 OF 03  020547Z 
UNCLAS SECTION 03 OF 03 ROME 004756 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FROM U.S. MISSION IN ROME 
 
AMEMBASSY ASMARAFOR AMBASSADOR MCCONNEL AND USAID DIRECTOR 
CHEEM 
USDA/FAS NAIROBI FOR FRED KESSEL 
STATE FOR ACING A/S IO, A/S PRM DEWEY, AF AND EA 
USDA/FAS FO U/S PENN AND RTILSWORTH 
USAID FOR A/USAID NATSIOS, AA/DCHA WINTER AND D/FFP LANDIS 
NSC FOR JDWORKN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS:     EAID, AORC, WFP UN, PREF, EAGR, EU 
SUBJECT: ERITREAN MAIN CROP EASON DROUGHT - DIFFICULT TIMES 
AHEAD 
TRADITINAL COPING MECHANISMS. THIS YEAR'S POOR MAIN SEASON 
HARVEST WILL SORELY TEST THE SYSTEM AS THE YIELD 
ANTICIPATED WILL ONLY PROVIDE FARM FAMILIES WIT A TWO-FOUR 
MONTH FOOD SUPPLY UNTIL NEXT FALL'S ARVEST. PASTURAGE AND 
DRINKING WATER FOR ANIMALSWILL BE IN CRITICALLY SHORT 
SUPPLY FROM FEBRUARY 2003 ONWARDS. FAO IS ADVISED TO 
INTENSIFY ITS INVLVEMENT IN APPROPRIATE FODDER CULTIVATION. 
 
16. N THE MEDIUM-TERM, TO IMPROVE AGRICULTURAL 
PRODUTIVITY, FAO RECOMMENDS THE FOLLOWING "QUICK WIN" 
INTERVENTIONS: (I) IMPROVED PEST CONTROL SYSTEMS, (II) 
EXPANDED SOIL AND WATER CONSERVATION PROGRAMS (III) 
INCREASED USE AND DEVELOPMENT OF LOCAL, FST-MATURING AND 
DROUGHT-RESISTANT CROPS, (IV) REABILITATED, IMPROVED AND 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 03        ROME  04756  03 OF 03  020547Z 
EXPANDED IRRIGATION SCHMES, (V) GREATER ACCESS TO 
SUSTAINABLE RURAL CREDIT SERVICES, (VI) MORE EFFECTIVE 
DISTRIBUTION OF ERTILIZERS, (VII) IMPROVED ANIMAL HUSBANDRY 
PRACICES AND (VIII) BETTER ANIMAL HEALTH SERVICES. 
 
7. FINALLY, WE NEED TO ADDRESS THE ISSUE OF FOOD AD 
DEPENDENCY. BEGINNING IN 1996, THE GOE PROHIBITED ALL FOOD- 
FOR-WORK ACTIVITIES. FREE DISTRIBUTIN IS PRESENTLY ALLOWED 
UNDER EMERGENCY OPERATION AND SCHOOL FEEDING. RURAL WORKS 
ARE AT TIMES CARIED OUT USING CASH-FOR-WORK. GIVEN THAT 
CASH ISSHORT AND PROJECTS, PARTICULARLY IN THE AGRICULTURAL 
SECTOR, NEED ACCELERATED IMPLEMENTATION (E.G., HE FREQUENCY 
OF DROUGHTS OVER THE PAST DECADE SHW A MARKED INCREASE), 
FOOD-FOR-WORK CAN BE AN EXELLENT WAY OF ENGAGING ABLE- 
BODIED BENEFICIARY POPULATIONS IN PRODUCTIVE ACTIVITIES. 
MOREOVER, WFP HAS GREATLY AIDED AGRICULTURAL PROGRESS IN 
CHINA, VIETNAM, BANGLADESH, ETHIOPIA AND INDIA - THROUGH 
SUSTAINED FOOD-FOR-WORK INTERVENTIONS. THE GSE IS ENCOURAGED 
TO REVISIT ITS PROHIBITION POLICY ON FOOD-FOR-WORK 
UNDERTAKINGS.  #HALL 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
> 
 2002ROME04756 - Classification: UNCLASSIFIED