US embassy cable - 05LAGOS1277

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 001277 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/11/2015 
TAGS: PTER, PINR, PGOV, PREL, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: REPORTED AL QA'IDA ACTIVITY 
 
 
Classified By: Consul General Brian Browne for reasons 1.4(b) and (d) 
 
1. (S) Summary.  Professor Ukandi Damachi, a long-time 
Mission contact and close advisor to former head-of-state 
Ibrahim Babangida, recently told us about a chance encounter 
he had with pro-Obasanjo members of the People's Democratic 
Party (PDP) executive.  These partisans alleged an 
association between Vice President Atiku, Lagos Governor 
Tinubu and Al Qa'ida.  According to Damachi, the PDP members 
told him the Oodua People's Congress (OPC), a loose and 
curious amalgam of some Yoruba politicians, street thugs, and 
other ne'er-do-wells, founded in the late 1990's, had 
received funding from Al Qa'ida.  The PDP official claimed 
both Vice President Atiku and Lagos Governor Tinubu were 
involved in this transaction, which was intended to finance 
the OPC destabilization of southern Nigeria.  Damachi 
maintained the PDP members said President Obasanjo was aware 
of these events.  Vice President Atiku and Governor Tinubu, 
both in Obasanjo's doghouse, have been long-time allies and 
are in ongoing discussions about forming a presidential 
ticket for the 2007 elections.  This information has not/not 
been corroborated and may be intended to shape USG thinking 
on Nigeria's presidential aspirants.  End Summary. 
 
2. (S) Damachi asserted that he encountered senior PDP 
leaders July 22 at the Murtala Mohammed International Airport 
in Lagos.  The party figures were awaiting the arrival of PDP 
Chairman Ahmadu Ali and President Obasanjo.  Damachi told the 
Consul General that the PDP officials, including the party's 
vice-chairman for the Southwest, began to discuss this matter 
openly with him.  Then they also raised this issue with party 
chairman Ali who arrived at the airport before the President. 
Ali purportedly expressed both his and the President's 
awareness of the alleged transaction. Ali, however, 
terminated this discussion, asserting that the groups' top 
project at the moment was the impending PDP political rally 
in Lagos. After the rally, they would discuss this sensitive 
issue. 
 
3. (S) Damachi asserted the PDP officials told him that Atiku 
and Tinubu were supporting this Al Qa'ida/OPC nexus out of 
political desperation. Both men would likely have their 2007 
national political ambitions dashed by President Obasanjo. In 
response to this likely predicament, they would attempt to 
make parts of Nigeria ungovernable, in hopes of crippling 
Obasanjo or even forcing his ouster. In the midst of the 
resultant turmoil, they would be able to revive their 
ambitions for the Presidency and Vice Presidency. 
 
4. (C) Damachi also heard from his PDP interlocutors that 
President Obasanjo planned to dump Vice President Atiku in 
early 2006 on corruption charges and that this alleged Al 
Qa'ida/OPC link could be one of the reasons given at that 
time. Damachi continued that Obasanjo had recently conferred 
with Senator Jubril Aminu, former Ambassador to the U.S., and 
Alhaji Bamanga Tukur, former governor of Gongola state (now 
Adamawa and Taraba states), about taking over from Atiku. 
Both Aminu and Tukur hail from Adamawa state, as does Atiku; 
both are political enemies of the Vice President. (Comment. 
In 1998, Tukur was in contention to be Obasanjo's running 
mate, but Atiku successfully outflanked him at the time. End 
Comment.) 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
5. (C) We believe Damachi is relaying to us what he heard and 
that he himself also gives credence to these allegations. 
IBB, Damachi's political boss, is viewing the PDP nomination 
as is Atiku.  IBB and Atiku are rivals, which means Damachi 
would be prone to believe and spread information damaging to 
the Vice President. 
 
6. (C) Without any further corroboration, we view these 
charges with a dose of skepticism. However, we relay them in 
the interest of conveying information received about any 
possible Al Qa'ida presence in Nigeria. There are a few 
points in this tale that tend to make it suspect. Both Atiku 
and Tinubu have ample political warchests; they would not 
need Al Qa'ida or any other entity to give them 2 million 
dollars to fund a local group. Second, they can communicate 
directly with the OPC or other such militant groups 
throughout the country. Bringing in an exogenous agent like 
Al Qa'ida adds little value except the risk of global 
opprobrium. Also, the linking of Atiku and Tinubu, two of 
Obasanjo's biggest political headaches, in such a terrible 
scheme is almost too neat politically. 
 
7. (C) That this story is making its rounds may ultimately 
reveal more about the turbid state of Nigerian electoral 
politics than about Al Qa'ida activities in Nigeria. That 
such a sensational story is discussed so cavalierly and is 
accepted as true is an early indication that the 2007 
political campaign will be one of no-holds-barred political 
charges and counter-charges. If this is any indication, this 
means politicians will be spending significant time finding 
new ways to destroy old enemies.  For example, we have heard 
that the Governor of Sokoto is accusing the Governor of 
Zamfara (who is a declared presidential candidate) of 
spending significant amount of state funds to send "large 
number of young men" to Saudi Arabia for religious education. 
 2007 aspirants may try to use the specter of security to 
sway our thinking and in hopes of prompting us to act in a 
manner for them and against their opponents. We predict this 
will not be the last time we hear charges linking a 
politician to a terrorist group. 
 
8. (S)  We note that when Consulate Lagos temporarily closed 
in late June 2005 due to a specific Al Qa'ida related threat, 
some newspapers erroneously attributed the closure to a 
threat from the OPC that was supported by Governor Tinubu. 
At that time, Tinubu denied the charge, claiming opponents in 
the PDP were paying the dirtiest of tricks with the most 
sensitive of security issues. End Comment 
9. (U) This cable has been cleared by Embassy Abuja. 
BROWNE