US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI6312

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 006312 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/12/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PBTS, ECON, ECIN, ETRD, MOPS, IN, PK, AF, INDO-PAK 
SUBJECT: MEA ON PAKISTAN TALKS: SOME PROGRESS, MANY DOUBTS 
 
REF: NEW DELHI 6249 (NOTAL) 
 
Classified By: POLCOUNS Geoff Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY: MEA Pakistan policy manager Dilip Sinha 
believes India and Pakistan made good but slow progress in 
their latest round of Composite Dialogue efforts, with a more 
constructive climate than earlier discussions.  They agreed 
to extend the LOC ceasefire, establish nuclear hotlines, 
pre-notify missile tests, boost cultural exchanges, start 
flag-level military meetings on the LOC, and will discuss an 
MOU on drug trafficking at the August 29 meeting of Home 
Secretaries.  Sinha complained that Pakistan is unwilling to 
 
SIPDIS 
move forward in areas of obvious benefit, like sporting and 
academic ties between militaries.  Also, India remains deeply 
skeptical of Musharraf's recent rhetoric about clamping down 
on terrorism.  PolCouns pushed back on Sinha, saying 
Musharraf is trying his best and we needed to work together 
to help him achieve his vision for a moderate Pakistan, since 
its realization was in our common interest.  We need to keep 
the pressure on both sides as they head into the 
Musharraf-Singh meeting at UNGA.  We should also work with 
the Indians to develop a common method for evaluating 
progress against terrorism from Pakistan so we can remain in 
step with each other as Musharraf pursues moderation.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
DECENT BUT SLOW PROGRESS IN THIS ROUND OF TALKS 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
2. (C) PolCouns and Poloffs met with MEA Joint Secretary 
(Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran) Dilip Sinha August 12 to get 
the MEA view on recently-concluded Composite Dialogue talks 
with Pakistan and to push the GOI to take a positive view of 
Musharraf's efforts within Pakistan.  Sinha said 
atmospherics had been good, with discussions remaining more 
positive than in the first round of talks, although he also 
noted some areas where the Pakistani side would not budge. 
Sinha said the issues discussed in this round (missile test 
pre-notifications, establishment of a Foreign Secretaries 
hotline, cultural exchanges) were less controversial and 
positions were less combative as a result.  Sinha explained 
that the Culture Secretaries had agreed measures for pilgrims 
and for tourism, as well as an exchange of film festivals, 
the first of which would be in India due to continued concern 
in Pakistan about the showing of Indian films.  Sinha also 
observed continued Pakistani resistance to dropping the 
long-standing ban on Indian films, which costs India greatly 
due to piracy.  The Pakistanis, surprisingly, resolutely 
refused defense think-tank exchanges or sporting events 
between armed forces teams, suggesting that the military 
establishment is wary of informal interaction.  We heard 
separately from a top Indian newspaper editor that not only 
was his recent request for a visa to visit denied, but a 
fellow journalist who had a ten-year multiple visa was 
expelled from Lahore on the flight on which she arrived. 
 
NUCLEAR HOTLINE TO START, LOC CEASEFIRE EXTENDED 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
3. (C) The two sides also agreed on new hotlines to avoid 
nuclear tension and miscalculation; on each side one will be 
in the Foreign Secretary's office while the other will be 
housed in the Directorate General for Military Operations 
(DGMO).  Both will be dedicated circuits.  India had wanted 
one hotline to be via submarine cable, and the other via 
satellite, but Pakistani vehemently refused, despite the 
Indian belief that submarine cables can be prone to outages 
and that a separate medium would be desirable.  In the event, 
the two dedicated lines will be via submarine cable. 
PolCouns commented that the need for crisis communications is 
demonstrated by our own experience in the Cold War, and a 
recent episode in which an Air Sahara jet en route from Delhi 
to Srinagar strayed inadvertently into Pakistani airspace to 
avoid a storm, reportedly leading to the scrambling of 
Pakistani interceptors.  Sinha noted that the two sides 
extended the cease-fire on the LOC, and agreed to refrain 
from building new militarily-significant defensive structures 
(ie, not the fence, but bunkers for troops and tank traps, 
etc).  They will also begin a series of flag-rank meetings 
along the LOC (using loud-hailers for now, and possibly 
moving up to field radios in the future). 
 
HOME MINISTERS:  DRUGS, COUNTER-TERRORISM, AND DEEP DOUBTS 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
 
4. (C) The Indian side presented the Pakistanis a draft MOU 
on drug trafficking, but Sinha doubted it would be finalized 
before the Home Secretaries meet in September.  It would also 
be important, opined Sinha, to see how the Pakistanis 
responded in countering terror.  Sinha insisted that the test 
of Musharraf's sincerity will be Pakistani action against 
entities such as the Jehad Council that continue to issue 
threats against India.  Pakistan-based enemies of India such 
as Hafiz Mohamed Saeed of Lashkar-e-Toiba must be muted for 
India to have trust in Pakistani rhetoric.  India was also 
hearing reports that leaders of banned groups arrested since 
Musharraf's July 29 speech have since quietly been released. 
Sinha was quite critical, saying Musharraf is all about 
stunts, but very little action.  The expulsions of foreign 
students from Madrasas did nothing to curb terror, Sinha 
lamented, but they had certainly made many in Pakistan angry; 
Sinha wondered why Musharraf did not use scalpel-like 
precision to target the true India-haters, instead of pushing 
broad initiatives that sound nice but achieve little in 
practical terms.  Continuing, Sinha said the "record of 
trust" on the Pakistani side was weak; there had been "zero" 
movement on democratization, and the fundamentalists remained 
strong as ever.  The Mukhtar Bibi rape case demonstrated 
their strength.  Retrogressive laws remained in place. 
 
HE'S THE BEST HOPE FOR BOTH OF US 
--------------------------------- 
 
5. (C) PolCouns pushed back strongly on Sinha, saying 
Musharraf was the best bet we and India had for reforms in 
Pakistan that we both sought.  The Composite Dialogue, 
stressed PolCouns, was an important way for India to give 
Musharraf support when he needed it most.  Besides, said 
PolCouns, A/S Rocca had made strong statements about the need 
for democracy in Pakistan, and movement in that direction 
would hopefully be forthcoming.  PolCouns also pitched to 
Sinha the need for improved US/India intelligence-sharing on 
groups like LeT so we can work together to find ways to 
strengthen the elements of Pakistani society that support 
President Musharraf's vision for a peaceful, multi-ethnic, 
democratic, and prosperous future. 
 
KEEP THEIR FEET TO THE FIRE 
--------------------------- 
 
6. (C) COMMENT: The Indians are moving ahead with Composite 
Dialogue and confidence-building measures, but they are 
puzzled by Pakistani delays or outright refusal to make 
progress in some areas.  The Indians are also still deeply 
skeptical of Musharraf's true intentions (reftel).  As we 
head into the Manmohan Singh-Musharraf meeting at UNGA in New 
York, we need to keep the pressure on both sides to ensure 
that they keep talking in a meaningful and productive manner. 
 As we continue to support Musharraf's latest crackdown on 
extremism, it will be important to develop a metric for 
progress on which we and the GOI can agree, since India's 
involvement will be key to long-term progress.  END COMMENT. 
BLAKE