US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI6311

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 NEW DELHI 006311 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PTER, PHUM, ECON, EAGR, SNAR, ELAB, EINV, IN, PK, Counter-Terrorism 
SUBJECT: PUNJAB WORRIED ABOUT DRUGS AND JOBS, NOT TERRORISM 
 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary: In response to media reports warning of a 
resurgence in Khalistani terrorism in Punjab and northern 
India, Poloff traveled to Chandigarh August 4-5 to interview 
government, business, police, civil society and political 
leaders.  They were uniformly unperturbed by reports of 
militant arrests, attributing New Delhi's May 22 cinema 
bombings to a few bad apples who will appear from time to 
time.  However, all highlighted increasing drug use, 
cross-border drug smuggling, and poor job prospects for 
uneducated rural Sikhs as imminent concerns for stability and 
law-and-order in Punjab.  The business community is 
optimistic that smart policies will promote healthy economic 
growth in Punjab's traditionally dominant agricultural sector 
and newer high-tech sectors.  While the bad apples may 
continue to stir up trouble, Punjabis do not anticipate a 
return to the violence of the 1980s, and are hopeful that 
economic growth and reforms will usher in a return to the 
pre-militancy golden days of prosperity.  End summary. 
 
Police and Government: It's Under Control 
----------------------------------------- 
 
2.  (SBU) While acknowledging that the recent Babbar Khalsa 
International (BKI)-linked arrests indicated a serious effort 
to cause mayhem, Punjab Home Secretary AK Dubey dismissed 
Khalistani terrorism as a serious concern.  In an open system 
like India's, it is impossible to "stamp out" all "isolated 
incidents" like this, he said.  Assistant Director General of 
Police (Crime) Anil Kaushik told us that while a few "bad 
apples" like arrested terrorist Jagtar Singh Hawara could 
always appear, the Khalistan movement does not have 
sufficient manpower to destabilize Punjab as it once did. 
However, he cautioned, if for other reasons (such as 
widespread unemployment or poverty-based resentment) popular 
discontent grows significantly, Khalistani activists will 
find greater success in recruiting militants. 
 
3.  (SBU) Kaushik noted that the remaining Khalistan 
terrorists had changed character, aiming now at targeted 
assassinations instead of random terror-inducing attacks. 
The few hard-core adherents are getting "more dangerous in 
doctrine," he said, and possibly still maintain a few 
underground cells.  Nonetheless, the motivation has faded for 
recruits, as the Khalistan ideal has little support in 
contemporary Punjab society. 
 
Punjab Prefers Peace, Terrorist Support Comes from Abroad 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
4.  (SBU) HK Dua, editor of the Tribune newspaper, agreed 
that the Khalistani agenda is dead, pointing out that the 
public realizes Punjab's economy has become so integrated 
into India's that a separate Khalistan is impossible. 
Additionally, there is no irritant in Sikh-Hindu 
relationships for militants to exploit.  (Note: The August 8 
release of an investigative report into government complicity 
in the 1984 anti-Sikh riots stirred up old grievances, but 
our interlocutors do not believe that it will be enough to 
reignite the separatist movements.  The PM's August 11 
apology for government inaction has soothed anger over the 
riots (septel).  End Note)  While BKI may try to raise its 
head, the public favors nipping that movement in the bud, he 
stated.  Punjab has learned its lessons from eight years of 
strife, and has no desire to repeat it. 
 
5.  (SBU) Herkewaljit Singh, editor of the Daily Ajit, agreed 
that the Sikh population in Punjab is almost uniformly 
opposed to Khalistani terrorism, and argued that BKI is now a 
Europe-based organization, although Pakistan permits BKI 
leaders to operate without interference as well.  Akali Dal 
leader Kawaljit Singh pointed out that organizing terrorism 
in Punjab is very low cost.  This enables a few committed 
supporters both within Punjab and abroad to maintain some 
level of activity despite a lack of popular support.  The 
fact that accused cinema bomber Hawara could reconstitute a 
network of bombers within 18 months of his escape from prison 
shows that the ground is conducive for recruitment of at 
least a small number of discontented Punjabis.  Hawara's 
bombings and arrest were a "wake-up call" for the police to 
remain vigilant, he said. 
 
Pakistan Nexus? 
--------------- 
6.  (SBU) Our interlocutors disagreed on the source of 
weapons and explosives reportedly seized from suspected 
terrorists.  Kaushik, Kawaljit Singh, and Dua argued that 
smugglers along the Punjab border with Pakistan, routes 
through Kashmir, and longer passages via Nepal had brought 
the weapons and RDX from Pakistan.  However, journalist 
Herkewaljit Singh and human rights activists in Chandigarh 
accused the Punjab Police of planting RDX during arrests to 
frame suspected militants, and noted that the police have no 
accounting system to track weapons and explosives seized for 
evidence, allowing them to plant the same explosives several 
times. 
 
7.  (SBU) Herkewaljit Singh and several human rights 
activists also accused the police of engaging in a race for 
arrests in order to boost their chances for promotions.  Many 
of those arrested have been casual contacts of other accused, 
with no known involvement in terrorism.  Kawaljit Singh 
complained that Punjab Police like to arrest "105 people to 
catch 5," giving them a chance to extort money from the 
innocent before releasing them. 
 
Discontent Stems from Rural Economic Frustration 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
7.  (SBU) Kawaljit Singh argued that the ease of recruiting 
followers to play small roles in cinema bomber Hawara's 
network highlights the problems posed by unemployment and 
poor job prospects for rural young Punjabis.  Fixing the 
economy would take a decade, he said, but nonetheless, "I 
don't see a terrorist movement erupting overnight," and any 
disgruntled youth that "fall toward militancy" could be 
stopped by vigilant policing.  Human rights activist Inderjit 
Jaiji of the Movement Against State Oppression warned that 
economic discontent among young Punjabis indicated that any 
future violence in Punjab would not be Khalistan-oriented, 
but "a naxalite (peasant) uprising aligned with Khalistani 
militants." 
 
8.  (SBU) Home Secretary Dubey admitted that apprehension 
over future tension was well-placed, as job generation is a 
primary concern for the Punjab government.  Since agriculture 
remains Punjab's most important economic sector, Dubey hoped 
to see more crop diversification, growth in the food 
processing industry, and more efficient marketing mechanisms 
as a way to increase employment and revenues for farmers in 
the state.  The service sector, including information 
technology and biotech, is also "looking up very fast," he 
said, particularly in areas surrounding Chandigarh, which is 
hoping to emerge as a northern Bangalore.  However, rural 
areas have not benefited from this service sector growth. 
 
9.  (SBU) Surinder Singla, the Punjab Finance Minister, told 
us of the need for economic reforms to generate jobs. 
Claiming that Punjab actually has high job generation, he 
stated that many young Punjabis will not take 
low-productivity positions, leaving them for migrant workers 
from Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, while they hope instead for a 
stable government job.  He argued that the Punjab government 
is bloated, and jobs would be created faster by trimming 
government sector spending and employment and adopting 
policies (such as infrastructure improvements) to encourage 
growth in high-productivity service sector employment.  He 
also endorsed plans for crop diversification, including 
investment and credit from large businesses in contractual 
agreements with small farmers, and creation of a value-added 
food processing industry in Punjab as a solution to 
agricultural sector malaise. 
 
Drugs Bigger Problem than Terrorism 
----------------------------------- 
 
10.  (SBU) Home Secretary Dubey, ADGP Kaushik and other 
leaders all identified increasing drug use as their number 
one concern for law and order in Punjab.  While Kaushik 
stated that the illegal drug situation was only "gradually 
deteriorating," Dubey characterized the increase in drug use 
as an exponential explosion akin to HIV infection rates. 
 
11.  (SBU) According to HS Hanspal, ex-President of the 
Punjab State Congress Committee, drug use has grown as part 
of what he termed a Pakistan-supported destabilization 
effort, and the abuse problem is worst along the Pakistan 
border.  However, while Dubey agreed that cross border drug 
smuggling is largely responsible for the growth in drug use, 
Kaushik pointed out that the abuse problem includes diversion 
of opiates for legitimate pharmaceutical use, and abuse of 
prescription medications.  As of yet, Kaushik said, drug 
smuggling has not been associated with increases in other 
crime. 
 
Comment: Terrorism Concerns Overblown 
------------------------------------- 
 
12.  (SBU) Some of our interlocutors have suggested that 
Pakistan may be trying to stoke a new phase of insurgency in 
the Punjab, seeking higher returns for its actions than in 
jaded Jammu & Kashmir.  However, as in J&K, the population 
has seen enough of the impact of terrorism and the resultant 
state reaction, and appears to have no taste for renewed 
militancy.  Although the Punjab police still have a 
reputation for overreaction and harsh tactics, fears of human 
rights abuses and repressive policing no longer stir the 
public to anger against the state.  The efforts of outside 
agitators, whether based in Pakistan or Europe, to stir up 
rebellion in Punjab are likely to fall flat. 
 
13.  (SBU) Local leaders in Punjab present a generally 
optimistic outlook for their state, in spite of their 
concerns for employment and economic growth.  As a result of 
the turmoil of the 1980s and 1990s, Punjabis have seen their 
state's per capita income, once the highest in India, fall 
relative to the new hot spots of Indian economic growth, and 
are now redoubling their efforts to regain their top place. 
The efforts of Punjab leaders to position Chandigarh and 
surrounding areas as a center for hi-tech companies have been 
somewhat successful in attracting high-profile corporations, 
and the agreement of leaders of both main Punjab parties on 
the need for economic and agricultural reforms suggests that 
their optimism may bear fruit. 
BLAKE