US embassy cable - 05ALMATY2904

UNCLAS  ALMATY 002904 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CACEN JMUDGE, OES/STC AND EUR/RUS NOLL 
ALSO FOR EB/TPP/ATP AND EB/TPP/BTA 
USDA FAS FOR ITP FOR MACKE/THOMAS, CMP/DLP WETZEL 
FAS PLEASE PASS TO APHIS AND FSIS 
HHS FOR WSTEIGER, PBUDASHEWITZ 
BRUSSELS PLEASE PASS TO APHIS/FENANDEZ 
ANKARA FOR FAS ATTACHE HIGGISTON 
GENEVA FOR HEALTH ATTACHE 
TASHKENT FOR PUTNAM 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAGR, TBIO, ECON, RS, ETRD, PGOV, KZ, Avian Influenza, POLITICAL 
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN AVIAN INFLUENZA UPDATE 
 
REF: ALMATY 2482 
 
1. (U) Summary:  After additional testing using reagents 
developed with U.S. assistance, the suspected human avian 
influenza (AI) patient in Pavlodar oblast (reftel) has not 
yet indicated the presence of the AI virus.  The 
hospitalization of fifteen people in East Kazakhstan oblast 
has been confirmed to be a salmonella episode and not/not 
AI.  Reports of afflicted bird populations have come from 
Pavlodar, East Kazakhstan and Akmolinskaya oblasts.  The GOK 
has confirmed that the avian cases tested to date were cases 
of the highly pathogenic H5N1 AI strain.  The affected 
oblasts and neighboring North Kazakhstan oblast have taken 
measures to quarantine the poultry industry.  To date, the 
GOK has imposed quarantines and accepted scientific advice 
from U.S. specialists.  The GOK has also disseminated 
educational information to large and small poultry 
producers, but has not taken strict measures limiting 
commerce in poultry.  End Summary. 
 
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Still No Confirmed Human Case 
----------------------------- 
 
2.  (U) As reported in reftel, a team from Naval Medical 
Research Unit-3 was invited by CDC and the Ministry of 
Health to Kazakhstan to assist in developing diagnostic 
materials for AI.  Using samples collected from the outbreak 
in Pavlodar oblast, the team developed both PCR (molecular- 
genetic) and ELISA (antibody) tests for the infection 
observed in Kazakhstan.  None of the tests performed so far 
on the young man hospitalized in Pavlodar have been 
reactive.  He is therefore not a confirmed human case. 
 
3.  (SBU) However, species-jumping with AI has been so rare 
that it is not known with any certainty how long it would 
take a notional patient to seroconvert, i.e. produce 
detectable antibodies.  Although medical sources close to 
the case tell us the initial prognosis was very bleak, the 
Pavlodar patient is now expected to survive. 
 
4.  (SBU) In the village of Golubovka, site of the human 
case under investigation, CDC/CAR reports that the local 
authorities have made door-to-door visits to residents to 
check them for fever.  This was a standard Soviet method of 
monitoring the progress of suspected dangerous "fevers of 
unknown origin." 
 
5.  (U) The fifteen people hospitalized near Ust-Kamenogorsk 
(East Kazakhstan) after eating chicken from their company 
cafeteria have been positively diagnosed with salmonella. AI 
has been excluded as a possible cause of their illness. 
 
------------------------------ 
More Reports of Infected Birds 
------------------------------ 
 
6.  (U) There are continued reports of poultry incidents in 
the northern and eastern regions of the country.  In 
addition to the Pavlodar case, 364 chickens have reportedly 
died in East Kazakhstan; 37 wild ducks and some domesticated 
birds died in Akmolinskaya oblast.  It is expected that AI 
will be found to have caused the deaths.  The GOK announced 
August 10 that the Pavlodar cases were definitely instances 
of the highly pathogenic H5N1 strain, but characterized the 
"epizootic situation on the republic's poultry farms" as 
 
"favorable.". 
7.  (U) The two new cases in Akmolinskaya oblast, which were 
reported in the press August 5, occurred in flocks 
maintained by two private households.  Approximately 70 
chickens and 30 ducks died.  The remainder of the flocks 
(about 350 ducks and chickens) was reportedly culled and 
quarantines were established for both villages. (Note: 
Akmolinskaya oblast surrounds and includes Astana, which 
itself has oblast status. The affected villages in 
Akmolinskaya oblast, Vinovgradovka and Yshsart, are roughly 
90 miles from the capital.  End Note.) 
 
------------------- 
Quarantines Imposed 
------------------- 
 
8.  (SBU) The authorities have taken measures to quarantine 
the poultry industry in the affected regions, although as 
yet the Ministry of Health has not confirmed which strain(s) 
of AI have been identified in Kazakhstan.  In the affected 
regions, farms have been ordered to operate in a "closed 
mode," i.e. no movement of people, birds, feed or equipment 
between farms regardless of whether an incident has taken 
place.  All of Pavlodar oblast is under this restriction; we 
understand that in the other oblasts only the affected 
villages are covered.  Even in areas not affected by a 
strict quarantine, the Ministry of Agriculture advised 
producers to keep poultry indoors where possible, erect 
additional fences, secure their feed supplies against 
intrusion by wild birds and report deaths from within their 
flocks.  Veterinary officials are checking ponds in the 
Pavlodar oblast for dead or ill birds.  (Comment: Because of 
the extraordinary difficulty of completely isolating farms 
from contact with wild birds and the likelihood that some 
infections already in progress have gone unreported as yet, 
we are somewhat skeptical about the efficacy of the 
quarantine.  End comment.) 
 
9.  (SBU) CDC/CAR has assisted in preparing flyers with 
educational materials on AI for distribution to even the 
smallest farms.  This is intended to counteract the under- 
reporting of possibly infected birds and to discourage 
farmers from attempting to isolate sick poultry themselves 
without informing authorities. 
 
10. (U) Multiple countries have taken action to prevent 
potentially infected Kazakhstani poultry and poultry meat 
from crossing their borders.  Russia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, 
and Georgia have banned the importation of Kazakhstani 
poultry.  The European Commission is expected to do so by 
August 12. 
 
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Comment 
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11.  (SBU) The specialists from NMRU-3 continue to assist 
the GOK in identifying the virus(es) affecting 
birds in Kazakhstan.  The additional reports in East 
Kazakhstan and Akmolinskaya oblasts seem to bolster the 
theory that the location of the outbreaks is related to the 
routes of migratory birds, even though the outbreak is 
taking place outside of the recognized migratory season. 
The GOK appears to have chosen a measured and low-key 
response. It appears to be taking necessary measures and 
accepting outside advice, but studiously avoiding 
 
characterizing the problem in such a way as to cause panic 
at home or excessively adverse responses abroad. Post 
continues to follow these developments closely. 
 
12. Dushanbe minimize considered. 
 
ASQUINO 
 
 
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