US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI3347

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 003347 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/11/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, TW, Domestic Politics 
SUBJECT: EARLY ASSESSMENT OF DPP STRATEGY AND CHANCES IN 
YEAR-END LOCAL ELECTIONS 
 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal. 
Reason(s) 1.4 (B/D). 
 
1.  (U) Summary:  The ruling Democratic Progressive Party 
(DPP) views Taipei County as its pivotal battleground in the 
December city/county chief elections.  Even though public 
opinion polls show, and most political leaders expect, the 
election will be extremely close, nevertheless, the DPP has 
effectively ended cooperation with its "Pan-Green" coalition 
partner, Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU), which could split the 
Pan-Green vote between the two parties.  End summary. 
 
2.  (C) Premier Frank Hsieh last week publicly stated that 
the December 3 local elections appear to be extremely tight 
and the DPP should not expect to win an overwhelming victory. 
 Thus far, he said, Pan-Green and Pan-Blue candidates are 
running neck and neck.  DPP, he predicted, is unlikely to win 
Kinmen or Matsu and might even lose one or two of the eight 
southern Taiwan counties and cities.  The party, however, 
could win one or two other counties currently controlled by 
the KMT and even the score.  The "pivotal" battle, Hsieh 
stated, will be fought in Taipei County, which the DPP cannot 
afford to lose.  Other DPP members tell AIT that DPP must win 
Taipei County because of its large population and because the 
county is currently controlled by the DPP.  Losing Taipei 
County would be widely perceived by the voting public as a 
vote of no confidence in the DPP as a whole.  Even more 
important, Taipei County's last elected county magistrate was 
DPP Chairman Su Tseng-chang.  Consequently, a DPP defeat 
would be a major blow to Su's hopes to be the DPP 
presidential candidate in 2008. 
 
3.  (C) Political leaders and analysts generally agree with 
Hsieh's assessment, telling AIT that Taipei County is indeed 
a DPP must-win.  CNA Deputy Director for domestic news Ku 
Cheng told AIT that Ilan County is also a must-win for the 
DPP, because it has symbolic value as the hometown of many 
ruling DPP leaders.  At the secondary level, Ku continued, 
the DPP considers Miaoli County, Hsinchu County and Hsinchu 
City as its best hopes for expanding its political base in 
northern Taiwan.  Thus, the party is working to gain the 
support of the politically conservative Hakka community, 
which constitutes the largest voting block in these three 
constituencies.  With these three elections in mind, the DPP 
nominated popular Hakka politician Luo Wen-jia as its 
candidate in the neighbor to the north, Taipei County. 
 
4.  (C) Academia Sinica analyst Wu Chung-shu, who has close 
ties to DPP leaders, told AIT that the DPP will consider it a 
victory if it can remain as ruling party in Taipei County and 
if it can increase support from Hakka voters in the northern 
counties of Miaoli and Hsinchu.  Winning over many of the 
highly independent Hakka voters, he acknowledged, will not be 
easy.  One facet of the DPP's general election strategy, he 
explained, will be promoting tax reform in the Legislative 
Yuan (LY) to project an image of DPP as defender of social 
justice. 
 
5.  (C) One strategy the DPP will apparently not employ in 
December, however, is cooperation with the Taiwan Solidarity 
Union (TSU), its Pan-Green coalition partner.  Last month, 
DPP Polling Director Wu Hsiang-jung told AIT that DPP 
intended to reserve one or two of the 23 city/county chief 
nominations for TSU.  Last week, however, DPP Deputy SecGen 
Yen Wan-ching told AIT that the DPP has ended its efforts to 
cooperate with TSU because TSU criticized DPP policies at 
every turn and constantly threatened to spoil DPP election 
chances if TSU did not get its way in naming candidates to 
represent the Pan-Green coalition.  TSU legislator George Liu 
Kuan-ping acknowledged to AIT on August 10 that TSU and DPP 
are not cooperating at all on the December city/county chief 
elections, and noted that if TSU fairs badly in the 
elections, as he expects, that would be "the end of the TSU 
as a viable party."  Liu scornfully pointed out that when TSU 
SecGen Su Chin-chiang pressed DPP SecGen Su Tseng-chang for 
cooperation in the elections, DPP Su politely demurred, 
explaining that while he personally wanted to coordinate with 
TSU, unfortunately his hands were tied by DPP supporters, who 
 
SIPDIS 
would not tolerate sharing nominations seats.  TSU Deputy 
SecGen Lau Yi-de and TSU LY Cacus leader Lai Hsin-yuan 
separately confirmed to AIT the total lack of coordination or 
even contact between DPP and TSU on operational matters. 
 
6.  (C) Comment:  It is too early to write off DPP-TSU 
cooperation in the year-end elections, and certainly 
premature to proclaim the demise of the Pan-Green coalition 
(though several TSU legislators have told AIT they would 
consider going with the KMT if the TSU does not survive as a 
party).  While confident that their own candidates can hold 
their own against TSU competitors in December, moreover, most 
DPP leaders realize they will need TSU help in the 2008 
presidential race.  With that in mind, and depending on the 
competitiveness of their own candidates against the Pan-Blue 
coalition, DPP leaders in the coming weeks could still accept 
some TSU candidates as Pan-Green coalition candidates in some 
locations. 
 
7.  (C)  While neither the DPP nor the KMT expects a large 
victory (Ma Ying-jeou said on China Television August 10 that 
he would consider it a "passing grade" if Pan-Blue wins in 12 
of the 23 locations being contested), pressure is on the DPP 
leadership.  As the ruling party it cannot afford missteps 
between now and the December 3 elections.  Another slip-up 
like the government's continuing failure to restore water 
supply in Taoyuan County in the wake of last week's Typhoon 
Haitong, could drive middle-of-the-road voters to the Pan 
Blue camp.  This could be a deciding factor in a tightly 
contested race.  End comment 
PAAL