US embassy cable - 05MANILA3710

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANILA 003710 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/PMBS, INR/EAP, DRL/CRA, DS, S/CT 
ALSO FOR USIP - SOLOMON 
USAID FOR CDOWNEY 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/11/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PREL, KISL, EAID, ASEC, RP 
SUBJECT: OFFICIAL RESULTS FROM ARMM ELECTIONS DELAYED; MORE 
ALLEGATIONS OF FRAUD 
 
REF: A. MANILA 3708 
     B. MANILA - OPS CENTER TELCON 08/10/2005 
     C. MANILA 3677 
     D. MANILA 3655 
     E. MANILA 3611 
     F. MANILA 3116 
 
Classified By: Political Officer Timothy Cipullo for 
Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  Final results from the August 8 elections 
in the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) have been 
delayed due to poor weather and other reasons.  Unofficial 
results indicate that Zaldy Ampatuan, the favored candidate 
for governor, and running-mate Ansarrudin Adiong, the favored 
candidate for vice-governor, will win handily.  The law and 
order situation in the ARMM remains largely calm.  In the 
meantime, allegations of fraud are increasing with one 
gubernatorial candidate claiming he was cheated and 
supporters of another making similar claims.  Mission 
observers, along with those from other countries, also 
witnessed apparent irregularities and non-transparent 
procedures on election day and after.  Unfortunately, despite 
GRP promises to make them clean, the elections already have a 
taint on them, though it is difficult to assess whether the 
alleged fraud was large-scale and had an impact on the 
results.  End Summary. 
 
------------------------- 
Final Results Not Yet Out 
------------------------- 
 
2.  (U) Commission on Elections (COMELEC) officials have 
announced that bad weather has contributed to a delay in the 
proclamation of the final results from the August 8 ARMM 
elections.  COMELEC Chairman Benjamin Abalos was unable to 
convene the regional board of canvassers on August 10 because 
heavy rains in Cotabato City -- where the group was supposed 
to meet -- forced his helicopter to divert to another 
location.  In addition to the weather, some other technical 
-related problems have cropped up that have caused COMELEC to 
have to delay issuance of the final results, which were 
expected on August 10. 
 
3.  (U) Several non-governmental and religious groups, 
accredited by COMELEC, have released unofficial tabulations 
that show Zaldy Ampatuan headed for an easy victory in the 
gubernatorial race.  Ampatuan's running mate Ansarrudin 
Adiong is also leading the vice governor's race by a wide 
margin.  Both Ampatuan and Adiong were endorsed by the Lakas 
Party, which is part of President Arroyo's governing 
coalition.  Unofficial partial tallies, as of late August 11, 
show Ampatuan with 482,213 votes, ahead of Mahid Mutilan with 
177,769 votes and Ibrahim "Toto" Paglas with 61,257 votes. 
Adiong leads with 388,988 votes over his vice gubernatorial 
challengers Hatta Dimaporo (112,266 votes) and Ismael 
Abubakar (94,439 votes).  COMELEC Commissioner Resurreccion 
"Rex" Borra has announced that he expects to announce the 
winners of all 24 Regional Assembly seats at some point on 
August 11.  It is not clear when the final results from the 
governor and vice governor races will be available. 
 
4.  (U) The law and order situation remains largely calm. 
Mission has not heard of serious election-related violence in 
the ARMM.  Security forces remain in place.  (Note:  See ref 
a for a report about bombings in Zamboanga City on August 10. 
 Zamboanga City is not part of the ARMM and residents there 
did not participate in the elections.  End Note.) 
 
---------------------- 
Complaints of Cheating 
---------------------- 
 
5.  (C) Even before results the are officially announced, 
some candidates are crying foul.  Ibrahim "Toto" Paglas, who 
is distantly trailing Ampatuan in the early unofficial 
tallies, complained of "having been cheated" in an August 10 
press interview.  He averred that he had received reports of 
local officials campaigning for candidates on election day 
near precincts and of ballots filled out in advance.  An 
assistant to Paglas, Edgar Bullecer, contacted poloff on 
August 10 and expressed "frustration with the process" and 
deep concern about reports of fraud.  Bullecar said Paglas 
had not decided whether to file a protest over the election. 
Supporters of another gubernatorial candidate, Mahid Mutilan, 
claimed that their candidate was cheated, specifically in 
Maguindinao Province (the bailiwick of Ampatuan).  House 
Deputy Speaker Abdulgani "Gerry" Salapuddin, who withdrew 
from the governor's race after Lakas endorsed Ampatuan (ref 
e), attended an August 10 rally in Basilan, calling on 
COMELEC to declare the ARMM elections "a failure." 
Salapuddin told the crowd, "What happened was selection, not 
election." 
 
----------------------------- 
Concerns about Irregularities 
----------------------------- 
 
6.  (C) International observers also have concerns about the 
elections.  Beverly Hagerdon Thakur (Amcit -- please 
protect), an expert with the International Foundation on 
Election Systems (IFES), was generally critical of the polls' 
credibility.  (Note:  IFES, an international NGO, has been 
operating in the Philippines on a two-year USAID grant 
focused on assisting electoral reforms.  End Note.)  In an 
August 11 conversation with poloff, she characterized the 
election as "not clean" and alleged that at least some of the 
alleged fraud may have been well-orchestrated.  According to 
Hagerdon, a key civil society group that IFES works with, the 
Citizens Coalition for ARMM elections (CCAE), has yet to put 
out a statement on the credibility of the August 8 polls. 
CCAE members indicated that they were worried that if they 
said anything negative about COMELEC they would lose their 
accreditation in future elections.  The Parish Pastoral 
Council for Responsible Voting (PPCRV), the 
COMELEC-accredited civil society poll-watching arm, has 
similarly been quiet on the subject of the fairness and 
credibility of the elections. 
 
7.  (C) Mission observers reported that, although incidents 
of possible cheating at the polls may have been isolated, a 
chaotic atmosphere at ballot counting centers created ample 
opportunities for non-transparent tallying or possible vote 
padding.  Mission personnel witnessed several potentially 
suspicious actions, such as unauthorized people at the 
counting stations, abandoned ballot boxes, insufficient 
numbers of poll watchers at the counting centers, and tally 
sheets apparently filled out in advance of counting (see refs 
b and c).  Observers from the embassies of Australia, Canada, 
New Zealand and the United Kingdom reported similar problems 
at a post-election wrap-up meeting on August 10, though they 
agreed that it would be difficult to try to infer an overall 
picture of the elections from the small number of sites 
observers visited.  Nonetheless, despite allegations of fraud 
and irregularities, interlocutors generally believe that the 
election this year was an improvement over those in the past. 
 Contacts noted in particular the relatively peaceful nature 
of the voting and counting and expressed hope that this would 
be the trend in the future. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
8.  (C) If Ampatuan indeed wins, it will not be a surprise. 
His family is well-known and he had the backing of Lakas, 
which was taken by many as an implicit endorsement by 
Malacanang (the President, in fact, remained publicly 
neutral).  Unfortunately, despite GRP promises to keep them 
clean, the elections already have a taint on them.  As noted, 
Mission observers and those from other countries witnessed 
localized instances of irregularities and there were other 
apparent anomalies.  Amid the general chaos of Philippine 
elections, it is difficult to assess whether the alleged 
fraud was large-scale and actually had an impact on the 
results, however.  It is, for example, difficult to envisage 
any candidate overcoming Ampatuan's natural advantages in the 
gubernatorial race.  The GRP will no doubt try to muddle 
through, though the ARMM elections -- like the May 2004 
national elections -- underscore the point that COMELEC is 
badly in need of additional reform. 
 
Visit Embassy Manila's Classified SIPRNET website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eap/manila/index. cfm 
 
You can also access this site through the State Department's 
Classified SIPRNET website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/ 
 
JOHNSON