US embassy cable - 05TELAVIV4946

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 004946 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/10/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, KWBG, IS, GOI INTERNAL 
SUBJECT: NETANYAHU SUPPORTERS SEEK EARLY LIKUD PRIMARIES TO 
UNSEAT SHARON; NEW POLLS PLACE NETANYAHU OVER SHARON 
 
REF: TEL AVIV 4879 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Norman H. Olsen Jr. for reasons 1.4 
(b,d). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY:  Supporters of Likud MK and party leadership 
contender Binyamin Netanyahu who are moving to compel early 
party primaries received a morale boost with the publication 
this week of poll results showing Netanyahu with a 
first-time-ever lead over Prime Minister Sharon in support 
from party members.  The Ha'aretz poll showed Netanyahu 
winning 35 percent/29.1 percent/17.3 percent in a three-way 
race with Sharon and arch-disengagement foe Uzi Landau, who 
announced his Likud candidacy August 9.  The poll showed a 
subsequent runoff race giving Netanyahu 47 percent to some 33 
percent for Sharon.  The Channel 10 poll of a two-way race 
gave Netanyahu 42.1 percent to 27.7 percent for Sharon.  The 
numbers have sent prognosticators runing all over the map. 
The head of a leading polling agency told Poloff that, while 
Netanyahu now appears to have a better "starting point" for a 
primary race, it is too early to tell whether he will keep 
his lead over Sharon.  Much, she underscored, is contingent 
on how smoothly the disengagement plan can be implemented. 
Israeli media commentators attribute the shift in Likud views 
to the disengagement plan, which many of Likud's right-wing 
voters oppose.  Some media commentators continue to speculate 
on whether Sharon will split Likud to form a new, more 
centrist party.  END SUMMARY. 
 
---------------------- 
Early Primaries Sought 
---------------------- 
 
2.  (C)  The Likud internal court is considering a petition 
by 20 percent of Likud members to compel a Likud Central 
Committee (LCC) meeting that would determine whether the 
party should hold early primaries.  The court proposed August 
9 that the two sides reach an agreed-upon date for convening 
the LCC.  Netanyahu supporter and Likud MK Gilad Erdan, one 
of the so-called Likud "rebels" who has opposed Sharon's 
disengagement plan, told Poloff August 9 that he believes 
that the Likud court will go farther in the coming days and 
decide that the LCC must convene within the next two weeks to 
consider a date for party primaries.  Erdan said that he and 
other Netanyahu supporters would like to see a primary date 
set for 60 days after the LCC meeting -- sometime in the 
middle of November.  Eldan said that the Likud constitution 
requires that party primaries be held at least six months 
before general elections, now officially scheduled for 
November 2006.  Eldan predicted that "there will be a big 
fight in the LCC" between Sharon and Netanyahu supporters 
over when to set primaries, and he speculated that Netanyahu 
would cancel his scheduled August 12 trip to the United 
States August in order to remain in Israel to rally support 
among LCC members. 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
Polls Shows Netanyahu in the Lead -- for Now 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
3.  (C) Netanyahu supporters have been buoyed by two polls 
released this week that give Netanyahu a strong lead over 
Sharon in Likud primaries.  A Ha'aretz poll of Likud voters 
conducted some 24 hours after Netanyahu's resignation shows 
Netanyahu winning 35 percent/29.1 percent/17.3 percent in a 
three-way race with Sharon and arch-disengagement foe Uzi 
Landau, who announced his Likud candidacy August 9.  The poll 
showed a subsequent runoff race giving Netanyahu 47 percent 
to some 33 percent for Sharon.  The Channel 10 poll of a 
two-way race gave Netanyahu 42.1 percent to 27.7 percent for 
Sharon.  Likud MK Eldan predicted that "Landau will join Bibi 
(Netanyahu) in the end."  The right wing of Likud "will put a 
lot of pressure on Landau" to drop out of the race, Eldan 
highlighted. 
 
4.  (C) Mina Zemach, president of the major Israeli polling 
agency "Dahaf," told Poloff August 9 that her agency is 
conducting its own poll which should be released in the daily 
Yedioth Ahronoth on Friday, August 12.  She questioned 
whether Netanyahu's actual lead is as wide as the polls 
indicated.  She said that she believes that the Ha'aretz and 
Channel 10 polls are "representative and correct," but that 
it is still too early to judge whether Netanyahu or Sharon 
have a real lead in Likud.  She noted that there is still no 
date for Likud primaries.  "It is better to wait until after 
disengagement" to gauge Netanyahu's or Sharon's Likud 
standing, Zemach said.  Much will depend, she stressed, on 
whether the disengagement plan is implemented without major 
problems.  Zemach also noted that many more right-wing 
voters, including settlers, joined the Likud Party in the 
recent voter drive, and that this could have buttressed 
Netanyahu's standing. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
Some Observers Already Predicting Political "Big Bang" 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
5.  (C) Some media commentators and politicians are 
predicting that Sharon's supposed weakened party standing 
will prompt him to break with the party and form a new, more 
centrist party with like-minded Likudniks and other more 
centrist politicians from other parties.  This "big bang" 
theory arose months aro when fissures deepened in Likud over 
Sharon's disengagement plan.  Tel Aviv radio reported August 
10 that "close confidants" of Sharon are "increasingly in 
favor of the option of breaking off from the Likud and of 
Ariel Sharon running at the head of a new political party. 
MK Eldan noted that the Likud Knesset faction is "quite 
divided" and that the number of Likud rebels in the Knesset 
has likely swelled from 13 to at least 18.  If the total 
number of Likud MKs opposing Sharon reaches 20 --  or 50 
percent of the Likud MKs -- Erdan noted, Sharon could no 
longer take the Likud name with him if he split the party. 
Reflecting the range of opinion within political circles MK 
Yuval Steinetz told poloff that he was pleased with the poll 
results and predicted that Sharon will retire shortly after 
disengagement concludes.  Shinui MK Ehud Rasabi, on the other 
hand, said, "don't write off Sharon," implyig that the Prime 
Minister has more than once defied his opponents' best 
efforts. 
 
 
********************************************* ******************** 
Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv 
 
You can also access this site through the State Department's 
Classified SIPRNET website. 
********************************************* ******************** 
KURTZER