US embassy cable - 05CAIRO6137

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 006137 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC STAFF FOR POUNDS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/09/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, EG, Elections 
SUBJECT: PROSPECTS FOR INTERNATIONAL MONITORING OF EGYPT'S 
ELECTIONS 
 
 
Classified by CDA Stuart Jones for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
------- 
Summary 
------- 
 
1.  (C)  Since President Bush's May 7 call for international 
monitoring of Egypt's presidential elections, the GOE has 
expressed little enthusiasm for the idea, but has also 
avoided rejecting it.  The GOE continues to argue that 
international monitoring is opposed by many in the Egyptian 
public as an affront to Egyptian sovereignty.  With the 
campaign due to begin on August 17, the presidential election 
scheduled for September 7, and no international monitors 
lined up, time appears to be running out for the presidential 
election.  The GOE may be hoping to stave off the issue 
through delay as opposed to confrontation.  Nevertheless, the 
Embassy believes that now is the time to deliver our 
strongest points on the need for a GOE decision on this 
issue.  Even if international monitors of the presidential 
elections constitute a merely symbolic presence, they will be 
an important symbol.  There is still plenty of time to 
organize a more comprehensive international monitoring effort 
for the parliamentary elections, which will likely occur in 
November, and which most observers agree actually hold the 
key to Egypt's democratic progress.  End summary. 
 
------------------ 
The GOE's argument 
------------------ 
 
2.  (C)  Prime Minister Nazif has been the most vocal 
messenger of the GOE's reluctance to invite international 
monitors.  Beginning with his comments to NBC and PBS in May 
while on his official visit to Washington, and as recently as 
late July in remarks to CNN, Nazif has taken the line that 
the GOE sees no need for international observers.  The goal, 
Nazif has repeatedly noted, is for the upcoming elections to 
be seen as free and fair, and Egypt's unique system of 
judicial supervision of the polls is well qualified to 
provide this oversight.  Similarly, in comments to the Deputy 
Secretary in mid-July (septel), presidential son and head of 
 
SIPDIS 
the NDP Policy Committee Gamal Mubarak noted that the GOE has 
not yet made a decision about this contentious issue, and 
continues to believe that elections are a domestic affair 
that have no need for international supervision.  (Note: 
Nazif and other GOE commentators have tended to downplay the 
considerable controversy and uncertainty that exists about 
the mechanics, thoroughness, and general feasibility of 
judicial supervision of the upcoming elections.  In addition, 
they have chosen to ignore the fact that judicial supervision 
of the polls alone, even if successful, will provide no 
monitoring of the campaigns leading to the elections.  End 
note.)  Significantly, however, the GOE has not issued a 
categorical refusal to accept international monitors. 
Rather, they have voiced their general opposition, and noted 
that the issue is still under consideration.  This delaying 
tactic has allowed them so far to avoid a direct 
confrontation over the issue. 
 
3.  (C)  In contrast to the prevailing GOE reluctance, in a 
July 26 conversation with poloff, the Vice President of 
Egypt's newly formed Presidential Elections Commission noted 
his intention to urge the Commission, at its formal meeting 
on July 27, to formally invite international monitors to 
observe the September 7 election.  To date, however, the 
Commission has issued no such invitation. 
 
4.  (C)  The issue of international monitoring has occasioned 
considerable public debate.  Many conservative 
editorialists--including some who are widely believed to be 
in the pay of the GOE--have denounced international 
monitoring as "foreign interference."  Certain leaders of 
opposition political parties and groups, including the Wafd 
and the Muslim Brotherhood, have taken a similar line, though 
independent analysts wonder if their stance is based, at 
least in part, on a desire to curry favor with the GOE. 
Other opposition parties, such as al-Ghad and Tagammu, have 
argued that international monitors should be welcomed if the 
GOE wishes to convince the world of its committment to 
political reform.  During a recent conference at the 
Bibliotheca Alexandrina, NDP reformist Dr. Ossama al-Ghazaly 
Harb summarized the case for international monitoring thusly: 
 international monitoring cannot be considered foreign 
interference in national sovereignty, if the GOE truly wants 
to conduct democratic elections.  Harb noted that 
international monitoring is now the "worldwide norm," and 
discounted the "foreign interference" argument as "nonsense." 
 
------------------------ 
At odds with its actions 
------------------------ 
5.  (C)  Somewhat surprisingly, given the GOE's opposition to 
any foreign monitoring of Egypt's elections, the GOE has 
participated recently in poll monitoring in a number of 
countries, including the Palestinian Authority, Zimbabwe, and 
Uganda.  Most recently, the foreign minister of the aspirant 
nation of Somaliland noted that in her bilateral meetings in 
Cairo, the GOE had agreed to assist Somaliland with 
monitoring of its upcoming elections.  The GOE has not sought 
to publicize its own participation in international 
monitoring efforts in other countries. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
Diplomatic community willing, but but only if the GOE asks 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
 
6.  (C)  Embassy Cairo officers have continued to explore the 
issue of international monitors and observers with various 
members of the diplomatic community in Cairo.  The U.N., the 
E.U., and various European embassies all agree on the 
desirability of international monitoring, but they all also 
note that any effort would be predicated on the GOE inviting 
international monitors to play a role.  Our diplomatic 
contacts agree that every day the GOE delays making a 
decision on international monitors diminishes the likelihood 
that a meaningful international monitoring effort can take 
place.  Observers also agree, however, that regardless of 
whether or not international observers play a meaningful role 
in the monitoring the upcoming elections, media scrutiny, 
domestic monitoring, and judicial supervision (if it comes to 
pass) will ensure that the 2005 elections will be the most 
scrutinized polls in modern Egyptian history. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
7.  (C)  We believe that we should continue to push the GOE 
to accept international monitoring, but that we must also be 
prepared to assist international monitors to move quickly 
if/when the GOE invites them.  The National Democratic 
Institute (NDI), the International Republican Institutes 
(IRI), and the International Foundation for Electoral Systems 
(IFES) are operational in Cairo, with USAID support, and 
might be mobilized quickly to support international 
monitoring efforts if the GOE were to give the green light. 
Ideally, the GOE would act in the next few days, prior to the 
start of the presidential campaign, to invite international 
monitors to play a role.  Barring this, even a last minute 
positive decision by the GOE to invite monitors for the 
presidential election could be seized by the diplomatic 
community here to play a more public role in analyzing the 
elections process and results.  Finally, we continue to 
believe that the parliamentary elections, which will likely 
be scheduled for November, remain the real prize for 2005, 
since it will be the new Parliament which will be able to 
test the GOE's stated commitment to democratic reform and to 
set the stage for any future change in executive power.  End 
comment. 
 
 
Visit Embassy Cairo's Classified Website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/cairo 
 
You can also access this site through the 
State Department's Classified SIPRNET website. 
 
JONES