US embassy cable - 05PARIS5422

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 005422 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPT FOR INR/R/MR; IIP/RW; IIP/RNY; BBG/VOA; IIP/WEU; AF/PA; 
EUR/WE /P/SP; D/C (MCCOO); EUR/PA; INR/P; INR/EUC; PM; OSC ISA 
FOR ILN; NEA; WHITE HOUSE FOR NSC/WEUROPE; DOC FOR ITA/EUR/FR 
AND PASS USTR/PA; USINCEUR FOR PAO; NATO/PA; MOSCOW/PA; 
ROME/PA; USVIENNA FOR USDEL OSCE. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, FR 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT - IRAN - NUCLEAR ISSUE 
IRAQ MIDDLE EAST - ISRAELI PULLOUT FROM GAZA AND HAMAS 
PARIS - TUESDAY, AUGUST 09, 2005 
 
 
(A) SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT: 
 
IRAN - NUCLEAR ISSUE 
IRAQ 
MIDDLE EAST - ISRAELI PULLOUT FROM GAZA AND HAMAS 
 
B) SUMMARY OF COVERAGE: 
 
RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO LEADS WITH IRAN AND ITS DECISION TO 
RESUME ITS URANIUM ENRICHMENT ACTIVITIES: "IRAN CHOOSES 
CONFRONTATION." FOR ITS EDITORIALIST PIERRE ROUSSELIN 
TEHERAN'S CHOICE IS AN "OPEN CHALLENGE" TO THE WEST, WHILE 
FRANCE'S FM DOUSTE-BLAZY CONSIDERS THAT IRAN HAS OPENED THE 
DOOR TO "A SERIOUS CRISIS." HE CALLS UPON THE INTERNATIONAL 
COMMUNITY TO REMAIN "UNITED" IN DEALING WITH THE SITUATION. IN 
HER REPORT FROM WASHINGTON, LE FIGARO CORRESPONDENT 
GUILLEMETTE FAURE EXPLAINS THAT THE U.S. "IS NOT OVERREACTING 
TO IRAN'S POSITION BECAUSE IT DID NOT EXPECT MUCH FROM THE 
NEGOTIATIONS UNDERTAKEN BY THE EUROPEAN TROIKA." (SEE PART C) 
 
POPULAR RIGHT-OF-CENTER FRANCE SOIR REPORTS ON THE POSSIBILITY 
FOR SOME GIS TO RETURN FROM IRAQ BY EARLY 2006, AND CARRIES A 
SCATHING COMMENTARY TITLED: "DOES THE WORLD'S NUMBER ONE ARMY 
DESERVE ITS NAME?" (SEE PART C) 
 
REPORTS ABOUT BENJAMIN NETANYAHU'S RESIGNATION FROM THE 
ISRAELI GOVERNMENT CONTINUE, WITH COMMENTATORS AGREEING THAT 
IT CHANGES NOTHING FOR SHARON'S PLANS TO PULLOUT FROM GAZA. AN 
OP-ED IN LE FIGARO BY OLIVIER ROY, AN EXPERT ON THE MUSLIM 
WORLD, IS TITLED "CAN HAMAS CHANGE?" (SEE PART C) 
 
(C) SUPPORTING TEXT/BLOCK QUOTES: 
 
IRAN - NUCLEAR ISSUE 
 
"IRAN'S CHALLENGE" 
PIERRE ROUSSELIN IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (08/09): "IRAN 
HAS CHOSEN CONFRONTATION WITH THE WEST. EVEN IF WE ARE 
ACCUSTOMED TO TEHRAN'S DRAMATIZATION, EVEN IF THE EUROPEANS 
CONTINUE TO SEARCH FOR AN OUT IN ORDER TO HIDE THEIR FAILURE, 
THE RESUMPTION OF URANIUM ENRICHMENT BY IRAN MARKS A POINT OF 
NO RETURN AND SIGNALS THE BEGINNING OF AN INTERNATIONAL 
CRISIS. IRAN FOOLS NO ONE WHEN IT PRETENDS THAT ITS AIM IS 
ONLY TO PRODUCE ELECTRICITY. CONSIDERING IRAN'S INTRANSIGENCE 
THERE IS NO POINT IN DILLY-DALLYING: THE ONLY SOLUTION IS TO 
GO BEFORE THE UNSC IN ORDER TO ADOPT SANCTIONS AGAINST IRAN, 
AS THE U.S. HAS BEEN PROPOSING FOR SOME TIME. THE COUNTDOWN 
HAS STARTED. THE TONE USED BY TEHRAN IN ANSWER TO THE 
EUROPEANS' PROPOSALS PROVES TO WHAT EXTENT IRAN FEELS IN A 
POSITION OF STRENGTH. THE U.S. IS MUCH TOO BUSY WITH IRAQ TO 
CONSIDER MILITARY STRIKES AGAINST IRAN. IN ISRAEL, THE 
ATTENTION IS FOCUSED ON THE PULLOUT FROM GAZA. GREAT BRITAIN 
HAS ITS HANDS FULL WITH ITS HUNT FOR TERRORISTS. AS FOR 
ECONOMIC SANCTIONS, THE PRICE OF OIL PROTECTS IRAN FROM AN 
EMBARGO THAT WOULD PENALIZE THE WEST, WHOSE ONLY OPTION IS TO 
REMAIN UNITED AND DETERMINED." 
 
"WASHINGTON BETTING ON THE UNSC" 
GUILLEMETTE FAURE IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (08/09): "THE 
U.S. IS HANDLING THE IRANIAN ISSUE WITH DISCRETION. IT IS 
CONVINCED THAT THE ONLY SOLUTION LIES WITH THE UNSC. IRAN'S 
`NO' TO THE EUROPEANS HAS NOT HAD THE SAME DRAMATIC IMPACT IN 
THE U.S. AS IT HAS IN EUROPE. WASHINGTON WAS NOT OPENLY 
COMMITTED TO THE LATEST CRISIS. IF THE IRANIAN POSITION HAS 
ELICITED SUCH LITTLE REACTION FROM THE U.S. IT IS BECAUSE 
WASHINGTON DID NOT EXCEPT MUCH FROM THE NEGOTIATIONS. THE NEW 
U.S. AMBASSADOR TO THE UN, JOHN BOLTON, HAS BEEN WORKING ON 
THE IRANIAN ISSUE FOR YEARS AND CANNOT WAIT TO GET HIS HANDS 
ON IT. THE UN COULD WELL BE THE KEY TO RESOLVING THE CRISIS. 
EVEN IF MANY QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE FUTURE OF THE 
COOPERATION BETWEEN THE AMERICANS AND THE EUROPEANS ONCE THE 
QUESTION OF SANCTIONS IS BROACHED." 
 
IRAQ 
"DOES THE WORLD'S NUMBER ONE ARMY DESERVE ITS NAME?" 
RIGHT-OF-CENTER FRANCE SOIR (08/09): "FACED WITH THE QUAGMIRE 
THAT IRAQ HAS TURNED INTO, THE U.S. ARMY HAS BEEN LACKING AND 
SHOWN ITS LIMITATIONS, ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF NUMBERS. THE 
THREE MAIN PRIORITIES IT SET AT THE START OF THE CONFLICT, 
ENDING SADDAM'S REGIME, MAINTAINING ORDER AND RECONSTRUCTING 
IRAQ'S INFRASTRUCTURE, REQUIRED, ACCORDING TO EXPERTS, CLOSE 
TO 460,000 MEN. BUT ONLY 138,000 MEN ARE PRESENT IN IRAQ. THE 
U.S. ARMY IS SUFFERING FROM A CRUEL LACK OF PERSONNEL. ONE CAN 
LEGITIMATELY QUESTION THE ABILITY OF THE YOUNG RECRUITS WHO 
ARE ABOUT TWENTY YEARS IN AGE AND WHO FOR THE MOST PART SPEAK 
ONLY SPANISH, TO HELP MAINTAIN THE PEACE IN IRAQ. HOW IS IT 
POSSIBLE THAT THE WORLD'S NUMBER ONE ARMY MISESTIMATED THE 
TASK TO THIS EXTENT? . THE CREDIBILITY AND SERIOUSNESS OF THE 
U.S. ARMY HAVE BEEN TARNISHED EVEN IF THIS DOES NOT SEEM TO BE 
A MATTER OF CONCERN FOR THE WHITE HOUSE." 
 
MIDDLE EAST - ISRAELI PULLOUT FROM GAZA AND HAMAS 
 
"CAM HAMAS CHANGE?" 
OLIVIER ROY IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (08/09): "AFTER THE 
ISRAELI PULLOUT FROM GAZA, HAMAS WILL HAVE CONTROL OF THE 
AREA. THE PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO IMPOSE 
ITSELF. THIS NEW SITUATION WILL FORCE HAMAS TO MAKE A CHOICE 
BETWEEN A STRATEGY THAT HAS BEEN DEFINED BY THE STRUGGLE TO 
LIBERATE PALESTINE AND A POLICY FOR MANAGING THE REGION. THE 
CULTURE OF COMBAT WHICH HAS TRADITIONALLY BEEN THAT OF HAMAS 
WILL NOT DISAPPEAR IN A DAY. THE ROLE THAT ISLAM WILL PLAY IN 
THE ATTITUDE ADOPTED BY HAMAS REMAINS AN OPEN QUESTION. UNTIL 
NOW, ISLAM HAS PLAYED THE ROLE OF A MOBILIZING FORCE WITHIN 
HAMAS IN ITS WAR FOR NATIONAL LIBERATION. IN THE LONG RUN IT 
WOULD BE LOGICAL FOR HAMAS TO TURN FROM A CULTURE OF WAR TO A 
CULTURE OF POLITICAL POWER. IN THE SHORT TERM IT WILL TRY TO 
NAVIGATE BETWEEN THE TWO." HOFMANN