US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI3291

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 003291 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/RSP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - ROBERT 
PALLADINO 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, KPAO, TW 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: SIX PARTY TALKS 
 
1. Summary: Amid the extensive coverage of local politics 
and Typhoon Matsa that hit Taiwan last Friday, the major 
Chinese-language Taipei dailies also focused their reporting 
August 5-8 on the arms procurement bill that is currently 
stuck in the Legislative Yuan, and other cross-Strait 
issues.  The pro-independence "Liberty Times," Taiwan's 
biggest daily, ran a banner headline on its front page 
August 5 that read: "With the Pan-Green camp moving a step 
backward, dawn breaks on the arms procurement case."  The 
sub-headline added: "President Chen directs that part of the 
funding designated for the arms procurements can be listed 
in [the government's] regular annual budget.  The Pan-Blue 
camp shows conditional support but stresses that they need 
to see a comprehensive budget report first [before making 
any final decision]."  The pro-unification "United Daily 
News" and some other major Chinese-language newspapers also 
reported on their inside pages August 5 that Chen stated 
that Taiwan's national defense budget should increase 
gradually and should equal three percent of Taiwan's GDP 
within the next three years. 
 
With regard to cross-Strait relations, the centrist "China 
Times" printed on page two of the August 7 edition that 
President Chen "updated" his cross-Strait guidelines during 
the fourth anniversary celebrations of the founding of the 
Taiwan Solidarity Union.  The news story was topped with the 
headline: "[With regard to] cross-Strait relations and 
[Taiwan's] sovereignty, President Chen [announced a policy 
of] One Principle, Three Insistences, and Five Oppositions." 
The "Liberty Times" and the pro-independence "Taiwan Daily" 
also carried similar news stories on their front and inside 
pages, respectively. 
 
2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, several 
newspapers carried commentaries regarding the Six Party 
Talks in Beijing.  A "China Times" commentary said it is 
unlikely that any conclusion will be reached even when the 
Six Party talks are resumed three weeks from now - unless 
there is genuine mutual trust between Washington and 
Pyongyang.  Taiwan Think Tank International Affairs Director 
Lai I-chung commented in a "Taiwan Daily" column that the 
Six Party Talks will push for a strategic reshuffle in 
Northeast Asia, and that Washington and Beijing will shift 
from cooperation to competition when it comes to the North 
Korean issue.  A "United Daily News" editorial discussed 
President Chen's idea of "a new balance of power in the 
Taiwan Strait" by comparing the situation in the Taiwan 
Strait with that on the Korean Peninsula.  The editorial 
called on Chen to learn from Seoul's example and to ponder 
upon his own cross-Strait policy.  End summary. 
 
A) "What Happens Next after the Six Party Talks Are 
Suspended?" 
 
The "International Outlook" column of the centrist, pro- 
status quo "China Times" [circulation: 500,000] commented 
(8/8): 
 
"The Six Party Talks will be suspended for three weeks; it's 
like marking a comma rather than a full stop [for the 
talks].  But will the differences be removed and problems be 
resolved after the talks are resumed three weeks from now? 
[The answer is] it is difficult [for the problems to be 
resolved]. . 
 
"U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said that 
resolution of the nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula 
could wait only for a few weeks rather than 13 months.  This 
is tough talk.  But the truth is that North Korea really has 
nothing to fear now.  Firstly, Pyongyang is already in 
possession of nuclear weapons.  Even if it is required to 
abandon them, it can still hide some of them while handing 
over the others.  Secondly, what better options does the 
United States have other than to appeal to the United 
Nation's Security Council?  Will Beijing and Russia not veto 
any resolutions to sanction North Korea? Judging from this 
perspective, the outcome will not be very optimistic when 
the Six Party talks resume, unless there is real mutual 
trust between Washington and Pyongyang." 
 
B) "Six Party Talks Will Push for a Strategic Reshuffle in 
Northeast Asia - Washington and Beijing Shift from 
Cooperation to Competition with Regard to the North Korean 
Issue - Part I" 
 
Lai I-chung, International Affairs Director of the Taiwan 
Think Tank, observed in the "International Spotlight" column 
of the pro-independence "Taiwan Daily" [circulation: 
150,000] (8/8): 
 
". Beijing, on its left wing, shows a dominant influence 
over the Korean Peninsula, while on its right wing, it has 
undermined the United States' leading role in the cross- 
Strait issues by taking advantage of the new situation 
created in Taiwan following the China visits by [KMT 
Chairman] Lien Chan and [PFP Chairman] James Soong.  For 
China, Pyongyang's possession of nuclear weapons can in 
reality intimidate Japan and thus further restrain the 
strategic function of the `U.S.-Japan [security] alliance.' 
Under such a circumstance, Beijing's strategy is that it 
hopes the `Six Party Talks' will go on without reaching a 
clear resolution on how to handle the nuclear problems on 
the Korean Peninsula.  As long as the `Six Party Talks' can 
continue, China will be able to keep in its hand a 
diplomatic tool that can control the strategic agenda in 
Northeast Asia. . 
 
". When [we] look at what China did in the "Six Party 
Talks,' . [we can say that] as the trend of strategic 
competition between Washington and Beijing intensifies, the 
North Korean issue has gradually changed from a lubricant 
for U.S.-China cooperation into a dispute between the two. 
Nonetheless, neither Washington nor Beijing wants to see 
their differences go public.  China hopes that the Six Party 
Talks will go on, so it starts to place pressure on North 
Korea; Washington has no complaint about this part.  As a 
result, Washington and Beijing continue to maintain a 
harmonious relationship on the surface with regard to the 
`Six Party Talks,' which has covered up the wrestling under 
the table wrestling. Such a development has become one of 
the characteristics of U.S.-China interactions in the Six 
Party Talks this time. ." 
 
C) "The Presence of Balance: Comparison between the Taiwan 
Strait and Korean Peninsula" 
 
The pro-unification "United Daily News" [circulation: 
500,000] editorialized (8/6): 
 
". A more profound analysis shows that Seoul's balance of 
power is built on the two parallel axes as advocated by 
South Korean President Roh Moo-Hyun - `those who are 
directly involved play the central role' and have 
`international cooperation.'  The first axis is aimed at 
pursuing South Korea's leadership and dominance over issues 
related to the Korean Peninsula and further demand that 
interactions between North and South Korea de-link their 
relations with other major countries that are involved.  The 
result, as it stands, is that even though tension exists 
between Washington and Pyongyang, the interaction between 
North and South Koreas is still maintained on a basis of 
stable development.  The other axis emphasizes a dynamic 
balance of powers between South Korea and other major 
countries.  As a result, when tension intensifies between 
Washington, Tokyo and Pyongyang, the interactions between 
Seoul and Beijing also increase. 
 
"[Taiwan] may find an answer for [President Chen Shui- 
bian's] `new balance of power in the Taiwan Strait' by 
looking at the model of South Korea, including: first, that 
a balance of power is a progressive, dynamic balance created 
in the status quo; second, if [Taiwan] does nothing but go 
lopsided toward the United States, it will not only lose its 
independence but will also fail to maintain a balance of 
power in the region; third, if [Taiwan] loses its 
independence and leadership in its cross-Strait policy, it 
will become a bargaining chip for the power trade between 
other major countries. ." 
 
PAAL