US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI3286

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 003286 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/04/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, TW, Domestic Politics 
SUBJECT: PREMIER HSIEH AND CHAIRMAN SU MANEUVER FOR 2008 
DPP PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION 
 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D). 
 
1.  (C)  Summary:  There are early signs of tension emerging 
between Premier Frank Hsieh and DPP Chairman Su Tseng-chang 
as they begin to jockey for the party,s presidential 
nomination in 2008.  The outcome of the local elections in 
December may help determine which of the two frontrunners 
will be tapped to represent the DPP in 2008.  President Chen 
is being careful to avoid showing preference for either man, 
apparently less out of concern for fairness than to keep them 
off balance and himself from becoming a lame-duck President 
anytime soon.  End summary. 
 
DPP Front Runners for 2008 
-------------------------- 
 
2.  (U) Now that the KMT chairmanship race has been settled 
and the newly-elected Chair, Ma Ying-jeou, is the clear front 
runner for the KMT 2008 presidential nominaton, attention is 
turning to the DPP leadership succession.  A public opinion 
poll last week by the United Daily News showed Premier Frank 
Hsieh running slightly ahead of Party Chairman Su Tseng-chang 
as the party,s presidential nominee in 2008, with Vice 
President Annette Lu (Hsiu-lien) and Presidential Secretary 
General Yu Shyi-kun trailing far behind.  (Note:  A China 
Times opinion survey also last week showed all four DPP 
presidential hopefuls fairing poorly against KMT's Ma 
Ying-jeou, Hsieh 44 to 20 and Su 48 to 19 percent.  End 
Note.) 
 
Signs of Cracks Belie Public Denials 
------------------------------------ 
 
3.  (C) Although both Hsieh and Su publicly deny they are 
competing with each other for the 2008 presidential 
nomination, DPP officials and legislators tell AIT that 
competition, if not an outright split, between the two men is 
indeed underway.  DPP Foreign Affairs Director Bikhim Hsiao 
told the AIT Deputy Director that she sees the growing split 
between Hsieh and Su as a major issue facing the DPP, 
emphasizing that the split is real, despite public denials. 
Hsiao's own undisguised support for Su is evidence of the 
split. 
 
4.  (C) A number of DPP leaders and independent observers 
have told AIT that the December local elections could help 
determine who the DPP 2008 presidential nominee will be. 
According to DPP Polling Director Wu Hsiang-jung, Su is under 
tremendous pressure to deliver a victory to the party in the 
December city/county chief elections.  If Su fails to do so, 
Wu argued, he will have no choice but to resign his party 
chairmanship.  (Note:  The unexpected DPP victory in the May 
14 National Assembly election gave Su, who had planned to 
resign if the DPP lost, a new lease on life as Chair and as 
presidential hopeful.  End Note.) 
 
5.  (C) While Hsieh has not publicly criticized Su, he has 
stated on several occasions that he himself is also under 
enormous pressure because everything he does is judged in 
terms of 2008.  As an indication of the pressures Hsieh is 
under, DPP Deputy Secretary General Yen Wan-ching took an 
indirect swipe at Premier Hsieh when he told AIT that the 
government,s hard line on negotiations on fruit sale to 
Mainland China "is completely wrong" because it could hurt 
DPP chances in the December local elections. 
 
President Chen Holds His Cards Close 
------------------------------------ 
 
6.  (C) President Chen has refrained from giving any 
indication of which of the two front runners he prefers for 
2008.  It is not even clear that Chen, in fact, prefers 
either man.  Academia Sinica analyst Wu Chung-shu, who has 
close ties with the DPP, told AIT that Chen personally 
prefers SecGen Yu Shyi-kun, who has been deeply loyal to Chen 
over the years.  While DPP legislator Hong Chi-chang 
confirmed that preference, he also told the Deputy Director 
that barring unforeseen developments between now and 2007, he 
expects either Hsieh or Su to become the party's 2008 
presidential nominee. 
 
7.  (C) Nonetheless, Chen has carefully struck a balance 
between Su and Hsieh since January 2005, when he selected the 
two men to serve as DPP Chair and Prime Minister, the two 
most prominent positions in party and government, but 
difficult positions highly susceptible to failure.  Chen has, 
moreover, from time to time alternately criticized and 
praised the two men.  At Su's January inauguration as Party 
Chair, Chen praised Su for being a leader who pushes forward 
(Su's campaign slogan when he ran for Taipei County 
Magistrate was "chong-chong-chong," meaning "push, push, 
push," a play on the last character in his name).  Chen then 
told him not to be "too pushy," a statement immediately 
understood by Taiwan observers as a put-down of Su. 
Similarly, Chen harshly and publicly criticized Hsieh last 
month for the Cabinet,s inefficient flood relief after 
Typhoon Haitong, but then turned around and praised him the 
next day for his leadership of the Executive Yuan.  Last 
week, in another apparent move to show that he has not 
decided who he will support for the party's 2008 nomination, 
Chen convened the fourth of his meetings with local DPP 
leaders, excluding senior party leaders, notably Su and Hsieh. 
 
8.  (C) Comment:  With over two years to go before the DPP 
formally selects its nominee for the 2008 presidential race, 
it is still early in the game and much can change.  While the 
December local elections could be a bellwether of nomination 
trends, they could just as easily prove less than decisive. 
If, for example, the DPP maintains or gains ground in the 
December elections, both Su and Hsieh would likely try to 
claim credit -- Su for leading the party to victory, Hsieh 
for making the party look good through his work as premier. 
If, on the other hand, the DPP falters, Su and Hsieh will 
likely rush to blame the other for not fulfilling his 
responsibilities.  In this way, the DPP nomination battle 
would remain open down to the wire, a situation that would 
delight no one more than President Chen, helping him to stave 
off his lame duck goblins. 
PAAL