US embassy cable - 05CAIRO6093

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CAIRO 006093 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/08/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, KDEM, ASEC, EG, Elections 
SUBJECT: 30 OF 57 PRESIDENTIAL APPLICANTS PASS FIRST 
HURDLE:  ELECTION COMMISSION TO REVIEW APPEALS AND TRIM 
LIST FURTHER BEFORE LAUNCH OF 19-DAY CAMPAIGN SEASON 
 
REF: A. CAIRO 5944 
 
     B. CAIRO 5592 
     C. CAIRO 4997 
     D. CAIRO 4519 
 
Classified by Acting DCM Michael Corbin for reasons 1.4 (b) 
and (d). 
 
------- 
Summary 
------- 
 
1.  (C)  Following a weekend review of applications, the 
Presidential Election Commission (PEC) determined on August 6 
that only 30 out of a total of 57 applicants seeking to 
compete for the presidency met basic eligibility criteria 
under the Presidential Elections Law.  While all 27 non-party 
affiliated "independents" fell short of the eligibility 
criteria, one third of them have filed appeals with the 
Ministry of Justice, which observers believe will quickly 
reject them.  The PEC will also select sole candidates for 
each party that submitted multiple nominees, eliminating at 
least another 14 names.  Wafd Party Chair No'man Gomaa's 
decision to run may undermine Ayman Nour's support, and has 
led to speculation that the decision was the result of a deal 
with the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) whereby Wafd 
would pick up extra seats in Parliament.  Other opnion posits 
that the Wafd decided to field Gomaa because it judges Nour 
to be a weaker adversary than expected, and is no longer 
worried about embarrassment at the polls.  The PEC will 
release its final list of candidates for the September 7 
election no later than August 13, and the formal campaign 
season will take place between August 17 and September 4. 
The promise of open access for candidates to state media 
remains spotty, with the advantage clearly in President 
Mubarak's favor.  End summary. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
Commission Deadline Passes;  30 Candidates Pre-Qualify 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
2.  (SBU) The 10-member Presidential Election Commission 
closed its doors at 8:00 p.m. August 4, marking the close of 
the official application period for Egypt's first-ever 
contested Presidential election.  According to the PEC, which 
spent the weekend reviewing applications, only 30 of a total 
of 57 applicants met the official elibility criteria.  Each 
of these 30 "pre-qualified" applicants belong to officially 
sanctioned and active political parties, including President 
Mubarak of the NDP, Ayman Nour of the Ghad Party, No'man 
Gomaa of the Wafd Party, and representatives from an 
additional 13 parties. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
Parties Submit Multiple Names;  PEC To Select One 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
3.  (SBU) Interestingly, six parties each submitted multiple 
candidates for the Presidential race, leaving the PEC (under 
the Presidential Elections Law) the responsibility for 
selecting a single candidate from each party represented on 
the final ballot.  This will lead to at least another 14 
names from six political parties being cut from the 
"pre-qualified" list of 30.  It remains unclear what criteria 
the Commission will use to determine which of the names are 
to be cut.  Unlike the American system where party 
conventions select a single candidate to nominate, parties 
such as the Liberal Party, the Shaab Democratic Party, and 
the Young Egypt Party offered up to five names each. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --------------- 
27 Candidates Disqualified So Far;  Appeals Expected to Fail 
--------------------------------------------- --------------- 
 
4.  (SBU) As expected (ref B), not one of the 27 
"independents" who filed applications with the PEC was 
approved.  Of these, 9 subsequently filed appeals with the 
Ministry of Justice, although most analysts expect the 
Ministry to quickly reject the appeals because the applicants 
did not meet the eligibility criteria set out for independent 
candidates.  (Note:  The law requires independent candidates 
to secure backing from 250 elected officials, including a 
minimum of 65 Members of Parliament from the People's 
Assembly, 25 members of the Shura Council, and 140 officials 
from provincial local councils.  End note.)  Additionally, 
press reports on August 8 quote Commission Spokesman Osama 
Atawya as saying that only ten candidates remain in the race, 
based on unspecified disqualification criteria.  The final 
list, according to the Election Law must be released at least 
25 days before the September 7 election date (i.e., no later 
than August 13). 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
Wafd Candidate Decides to Run;  Deal Cut with NDP? 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
5.  (C) The only real surprise on the candidacy list was the 
inclusion in the race of Wafd Party Chairman No'man Gomaa, 
whose party had earlier declined to field a candidate. 
Nevertheless, in announcing his last-minute candidacy, the 
former Dean of Cairo University's Law School claimed that it 
would be inappropriate for Egypt's oldest party to not be 
represented (ref A).  The move has led to rumors that Wafd 
may have reached a deal with the NDP to enter the race in 
return for assistance in obtaining additional seats for Wafd 
in upcoming Parliamentary elections.  (Note:  A five percent 
Parliamentary representation figure will be the required 
threshold for candidates in the next presidential election. 
End note.)  However, other sources believe Wafd made the 
decision based on the calculation that Ayman Nour was not the 
threat they anticipated, and that they stood to fare better 
in the election than previously thought.  Indeed, Ayman Nour 
has been very quiet since the postponement of his trial, 
leading some to suggest he is not the force that many 
observers had thought he was.  One of his advisors, however, 
suggested to us that Nour was simply "keeping his powder dry" 
until the official campaign period begins. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
Questions of Fairness Raised by Nour's Ghad Party 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
6.  (SBU) Along with earlier and well-known complaints of 
intimidation and thuggery, Ayman Nour and his Tomorrow Party 
are upset over the manner in which the Presidential Election 
Commission has handled the issue of campaign symbols. 
Claiming to have arrived first on line for the opening of the 
Commission's office the day that applications were to be 
submitted, Nour contends that he should have been granted 
first choice of symbols to accompany his name and party 
affiliation on the final ballot.  The red crescent symbol, 
long associated with President Mubarak and state authority, 
was Nour's first choice as it is well recognized by an 
Egyptian population with a forty-percent adult illiteracy 
rate.  Subsequently, however, the PEC announced that Mubarak 
and the NDP would have the crescent while the Ghad Party 
would be assigned its second choice, the palm tree.  The 
seemingly capricious decision by the PEC, Nour contends, is 
one more indication of how the cards are stacked against 
opponents of Mubarak and the ruling party. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
19-Day Election Cycle Set to Begin;  Media Access Mixed 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
7.  (SBU) Once the PEC publishes its final list of 
candidates, the 19-day formal campaign period will take place 
from August 17 until September 4.  Candidates will have the 
option of accepting public funding totaling 500,000 Egyptian 
Pounds (approximately USD 90,000) to spend on media, access 
to which has been promised to be free and open.  Already, 
local media are abuzz with news of the election and 
prospective candidates, and are begining to print platform 
descriptions.  The air waves are also full of interviews with 
better-known candidates on a variety of public and private 
television talk shows.  Nevertheless, complaints are numerous 
about the extent of governmental and ruling party control 
over media access and obvious loopholes.  As one example, 
election-related rules on media access do not count the 
President's normal day-to-day work as campaigning.  There is 
already speculation, however, that Mubarak will limit his 
official duties during the campaign period to avoid this 
criticism.  For example, the GOE is seeking new dates for an 
Arab League summit--postponed by the death of King 
Fahd--prior to the August 17 start of the campaign. 
 
8.  (SBU) To date, among contenders for the presidency, 
Wafd's Gomaa and Ghad's Nour are getting the most attention 
in pro-government media channels.  Other, lesser-known 
candidates are receiving only brief press coverage, although 
papers are begining to list respective party platforms of the 
likely final candidates - a trend we expect to continue once 
the PEC announces its final list.  Conversely, President 
Mubarak's daily appearances and public speeches are covered 
extensively, especially on the crucial state-controlled 
television.  TV is critical given high illiteracy rates. 
While press coverage will undoubtedly be in Mubarak's favor, 
we expect that Information Minister Annas El-Fekki (also 
Mubarak's media campaign manager) will strive to provide 
enough coverage of opposition candidates to argue the 
fairness of the election. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
9.  (C) So far, the first steps on the road to Egypt's first 
Presidential election are playing out largely as expected. 
Strict candidacy rules have eliminated all non-party 
independent candidates, rumors are circulating of ruling 
party deal making, and media coverage to date has been 
strongly in President Mubarak's favor.  While Egypt is now 
seized with the new experience of presidential campaigning, 
given the relatively short official campaign period of only 
19 days, and the various institutional advantages that will 
benefit the incumbent, we believe that the more meaningful 
electoral opportunity for Egyptians remains the People's 
Assembly elections which will take place after the 
Presidential poll.  End comment. 
 
 
Visit Embassy Cairo's Classified Website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/cairo 
 
You can also access this site through the 
State Department's Classified SIPRNET website. 
 
JONES