US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI6149

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 006149 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/07/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PTER, MASS, KDEM, MOPS, IN, NP, India-Nepal 
SUBJECT: MEA GRASPING FOR A PLAN B IN NEPAL 
 
REF: KATHMANDU 1603 NOTAL 
 
Classified By: PolCouns Geoff Pyatt for reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary: MEA Joint Secretary (North) Ranjit Rae told 
PolCouns and Poloff on August 8 that the "window of 
opportunity" for reconciliation between the Palace and the 
political parties in Nepal is closing, and MEA is looking for 
new ways to increase pressure on the King.  India was annoyed 
by the July visit to Nepal of UN envoy Brahimi, and remains 
concerned by reports that China and Pakistan may seek to fill 
the arms supply gap to the RNA.  The Indians argue that only 
restoration of democracy can bring lasting stability to 
Nepal.  Post recommends we discuss coordinating with the GOI 
our next measures to pressure the Palace to compromise with 
the political parties.  End Summary. 
 
Window of Opportunity is Closing 
-------------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) Rae lamented that the "window of opportunity is 
gradually closing" in which the international community could 
expect to turn King Gyanendra in a productive direction. 
While India earlier thought the King could be persuaded to 
retrace his steps to February 1, the latest developments in 
Nepal indicate time is growing short.  These indicators 
included the appointment of scandal-ridden ministers to the 
Cabinet (including one murderer), alterations to the Civil 
Service, and the "Citizens for Democracy" protests on August 
5, which drew "all of the intelligentsia of Nepal."  If 
agitation picks up in Nepal after the monsoons end in 
September, as New Delhi expects, the Palace will turn even 
more repressive, Rae predicted. 
 
GOI Looking for New Ideas 
------------------------- 
 
3.  (C) The GOI is looking "all the time" for new ways to 
encourage the King to compromise with the parties, Rae 
stated.  However, there are many different views and 
constituencies within the government, he said, so it would be 
premature to discuss those ideas now.  Other than a course 
correction by the King, "I don't see how we can get out of 
this mess," he complained. 
 
India Irked by Brahimi Visit 
---------------------------- 
 
4.  (C) While admitting that the UN's involvement in Nepal 
through the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights 
was helpful, Rae said the GOI was not enthused by UN envoy 
Lakhdar Brahimi's recent visit to Kathmandu.  He attributed 
the visit to the Secretary General's motivation to show that 
the UN was engaged in Nepal, and shrugged off a UN role in 
resolving the impasse between the Palace, the parties and the 
Maoists.  He argued that Nepal was "not yet" on par with the 
other international crises in which Brahimi had been involved. 
 
King Seeks High-level Meetings to Confer Legitimacy 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
5.  (C) Rae mentioned that Minister of State Rao Inderjit 
Singh had repeatedly emphasized the GOI's desire to see a 
return to democracy during his July Kathmandu visit, but the 
Palace had pushed back, arguing that the imperative of 
fighting terrorism necessitated the King's February 1 
takeover.  The Palace sees high-level meetings as a way of 
cementing its legitimacy, and has already requested meetings 
with the Indian delegation at the foreign minister level at 
the UNGA and SAARC summits to be held in September and 
November, respectively.  However, Rae said, the GOI has not 
yet decided how to respond, as the King used an April meeting 
with PM Manmohan Singh in Jakarta to attempt to justify his 
February actions.  He added that India's special relationship 
with Nepal makes outright rejection of these requests 
difficult. 
 
 
China, Pakistan, and Weapons: NIMBY 
----------------------------------- 
 
6.  (C) India continues to receive alarming reports of 
Pakistani and Chinese offers to supply weapons to Nepal, Rae 
stated, specifying that the GOI has heard that several 
Chinese companies including Norinco have offered letters of 
credit for arms and ammunition purchases.  MEA Joint 
Secretary (East) Ashok Kantha called in the Chinese Embassy 
 
SIPDIS 
in July to request that China not permit arms sales, Rae 
reported.  However, the geopolitics in the region have 
changed, he observed, and China is not as eager as it once 
was to meddle in Nepal whenever previous kings "played the 
China card."  In the meantime, India's supply of non-lethal 
aid valued at 150,000,000 Rupees (approximately USD 3.5 
million) released in early July was almost completed, he 
added, barring a few items held up at the border awaiting 
excise duty exemption. 
 
Comment: We Also Need a Plan B 
------------------------------ 
 
7.  (C) Our British and Indian interlocutors in New Delhi 
have discussed the need to formulate a new approach to 
convince the King that he must reach out to the political 
parties before it is too late.  The GOI clearly recognizes it 
must do more, although what, precisely, remains for now 
unclear to them.  Rae noted that some in New Delhi are 
pressing the GOI to "get real" and work with the King against 
the Maoist threat, but added his view that such an approach 
could not bring lasting stability.  We believe the time is 
ripe to discuss a coordinated approach with the GOI, perhaps 
drawing on some of Embassy Kathmandu's suggestions (Reftel). 
The recent US-India Democracy Initiative and the PM's 
September visit to the UNGA might provide a useful platform 
for us to reinforce our commitment to the restoration of 
democracy in Nepal. 
BLAKE