US embassy cable - 05OTTAWA2380

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 OTTAWA 002380 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
 
DEPT FOR POLICY PLANNING, DRL, NEA/NGA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/07/2010 
TAGS: PGOV, EAID, IZ, PGOV, PREL, CA 
SUBJECT: CANADIAN FORUM OF FEDERATIONS IRAQ TEAM ON THE NEW 
CONSTITUTION 
 
 
Classified By: POL/MC Brian Flora, reasons 1.4 (b) (d) 
 
1. (C/NF) Summary:  Former Canadian Deputy Minister for 
Natural Resources George Anderson recently returned from Iraq 
where he was an advisor to the constitutional committee as 
part of a Forum of Federations team under contract with NDI. 
He said that the Canadian International Development Agency 
has given the Forum an additional CN $2 million for Iraq 
programs, which it plans to use to bring Iraqi officials and 
civic leaders to federation countries on study tours over the 
next two and a half years.  The Forum has also received 
funding for similar programs in Sudan. 
 
2. (C/NF) Anderson was surprised by the enthusiasm of those 
working on the constitution and by the dynamism of civil 
society in Iraq.  He was cautiously optimistic at best about 
the constitution itself, however, evincing concern about the 
chaotic nature of the process, and with the uncertain 
end-product.  He doubted whether the current exercise would 
settle the largest issues and could apply a model which is 
simply dysfunctional.  He believes that Britain's arrangement 
with Scotland, though not technically a federation, may be 
the best model for Iraq, with Spain being a second model 
worth considering.  The key for Anderson is an arrangement 
which allows the Sunni-Shi'ite areas to be strongly governed 
from Baghdad, while allowing the Kurds relative autonomy in 
the north.  Forcing one area to compromise its needs to meet 
the needs of the other will not work; a form of "asymmetric 
federalism" is what will be needed.  End Summary 
 
FORUM OF FEDERATION PROGRAMS IN IRAQ AND SUDAN 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
3. (C/NF) Poloff met August 4 with George Anderson, former 
Assistant Deputy Minister for Natural Resources and a senior 
member of the Forum of Federations.  The Forum was started in 
the late 1990s in the wake of the referendum over Quebec 
sovereignty, as an independent organization that would build 
ties with other federations to highlight the benefits of 
federalism and improve the study of the federalist form of 
government.  Since that time it has become one of the 
foremost venues in the world for federalist states to advance 
their understanding of the practice, and has developed a 
number of programs for sharing the experiences of federalist 
states with nations in transition. 
 
4. (C/NF) Anderson has recently returned from Iraq, where he 
headed the Forum of Federation's constitutional team, under 
contract to NDI to provide advisory support for the 
Constitutional Committee.  It sent several individuals for 
various periods of time, to include former Ontario Premier 
Bob Rae, and has one expert in Baghdad now.  Anderson said 
that in addition to NDI funding, the Forum has now received 
CIDA funding of CN $2 million to stay involved in Iraq for 
the next two and a half years.  The Forum also hopes that 
there will be additional NDI funding. 
 
5. (C/NF) Anderson said that given the impossibly tight 
security in Iraq, the Forum plans to focus its efforts on 
funding study trips for Iraqis to Canada and other federation 
countries, and producing educational materials that would 
shore up understanding and support for the new constitution. 
If the Iraqi constitution ends up creating a federation of 
some sort, Anderson said that the Forum would be willing to 
provide training and observation visits for groups of Iraqis 
on such topics as comparative federalism, legal framework and 
application of federalism, and management of the civil 
service.  It would also provide "train-the-trainer" courses 
for Iraqis in government and NGOs.  He said they were also 
looking for local Iraqi NGOs to partner with in the various 
regions to do administration of justice and other programs. 
Federation programs are active in seven countries, and 
Anderson said that they could set up study trips to multiple 
locations or bring groups to Canada and pull in experts from 
other countries 
for programs here. 
 
6. (C/NF) Anderson also mentioned that the Forum had received 
funding from CIDA to do a similar program in Sudan.  There it 
hoped to find an easier work environment, and Forum officials 
envisioned something closer to the project they directed in 
South Africa, where teams were able to work for several 
months in various parts of the country, instructing and 
educating people about the merits of federalism. 
 
FORUM EXPERTS ON THE IRAQI CONSTITUTION 
--------------------------------------- 
 
7. (C/NF) Anderson said he was struck by the growing dynamism 
of civil society in Iraq and was encouraged by the energy and 
determination he saw among the Iraqis he worked with.  He was 
not sure the energy would eventually lead to something that 
resembles a constitution as we know it, however, especially 
on the issue of federalism.  Anderson was struck by how 
little understanding there was committee members of 
federalism -- he said there was great difficulty even finding 
a word in Arabic that could convey the concept.  The 
Committee Vice Chair claimed to accept it as something viable 
for Iraq, but when pressed, Anderson said it was clear that 
he hadn't really thought through what it meant or how to make 
it work. 
 
8. (C/NF) Anderson described the constitution drafting 
process as very chaotic, and not something that was guided by 
the normal systematic technical analysis which leads to the 
isolation of issues and development of answers.  He was also 
concerned with the lack of transparency, and said that even 
within the committee itself not everyone knew what everyone 
else was doing.  Anderson was also surprised that there was 
no involvement by ministries and government technical 
experts, which had been the case in all other constitutions 
he has worked on. 
 
WHAT MIGHT WORK? 
---------------- 
 
9. (C/NF) The key to a successful constitution, Anderson 
believes, is what the Kurds are willing to accept.  It is a 
given that they will allow treaties and foreign relations to 
be conducted by the central government, but will they, for 
example, integrate the Peshmerga into the national security 
forces?  He made reference to the Kurdish National Assembly's 
vote that the National Army may not enter Kurdistan without 
its approval as an example of how difficult this issue will 
be.  The Kurds, Anderson said, also want initial control of 
resources and resource wealth, which will be problematic 
because of Kirkuk.  But he also believes that Baghdad can use 
the fact that the oil reserves are outside Kurdistan proper 
to force Kurdish compliance and bring them fully into the 
fold.  The power of the purse in this case, will be about all 
the central government has. 
 
10. (C/NF) Of possible models for Iraq from a federal 
perspective, Anderson thinks that Spain or Britain would be 
the most likely to succeed. Even though not technically a 
federation, Anderson thought that the arrangement Britain has 
with Scotland most closely resembles what he believes Iraq 
will require with relation to Kurdistan.  He does not believe 
that the Sunni and Shi'ite areas are ready for any autonomy, 
lacking both the technical capacity to govern their provinces 
independent of Baghdad, and any real social cohesion.  The 
southern three provinces centered around Basra are the 
closest to sharing the Kurd's capacity and penchant for self 
government, but they are not there yet.  He believes a 
constitution that allows for those kinds of arrangements to 
evolve over time might work, but for now a strong central 
government for the center, west, and south, with strong 
autonomy in the north, will be essential, and he thought, 
workable. 
 
11. (C/NF) Anderson said that he was not sure this kind of 
model was being considered, and in fact, wasn't sure the 
model that is being developed made sense.  He saw the tough 
issues being kicked down the road, which may allow the 
flexibility to buy some time and still have a workable 
outcome, but could also lead to a hardening of positions on 
the ground.  He fears things are headed in the direction of a 
three state federation, a serious concern as an expert from 
the federation reminded him that most 2-3 state federations 
have had a "sad history."  Finally, Anderson believes the 
constitutional committee would have benefited from an 
additional month or two to do its work.  He understands the 
urgency of meeting the deadline, but also is aware of the 
difficulties which working through so many large issues so 
rapidly is causing. 
 
12. (C/NF) Comment: Anderson had a limited view of the 
constitution but his perspective on federalism may be useful. 
 The Forum brings together individuals from all the world's 
federations and are an excellent venue for considering 
different models for nations in transition.  They would 
appear to put funding to good use in places like Iraq and 
Sudan and could well serve as a useful partner for these 
kinds of projects in the future. 
 
Visit Canada's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/ottawa 
 
WILKINS