US embassy cable - 05MANILA3655

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MANILA 003655 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/PMBS, INR/EAP, DRL/CRA, DS, S/CT 
USAID FOR CDOWNEY 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PREL, KISL, ASEC, EAID, RP 
SUBJECT: ELECTIONS IN MUSLIM AUTONOMOUS REGION PROCEED IN 
LARGELY ORDERLY FASHION 
 
REF: A. MANILA 3611 
     B. MANILA 3477 
     C. MANILA 3116 
     D. MANILA 3046 
 
1.  (U) This message is Sensitive But Unclassified -- Please 
handle accordingly. 
 
2.  (SBU) Summary:  The August 8 elections in the Autonomous 
Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) have proceeded in largely an 
orderly fashion as of the close of polls at 1500 hrs local. 
Mission observers on the ground have reported a steady stream 
of voters turning out to the polls.  Philippine security 
forces are strongly in evidence and no serious cases of 
violence have been reported so far.  Results are expected to 
be announced by August 10.  Given the continued possibility 
of fraud and violence, it is still too early to call the 
elections a success, but problems thus far appear to be 
isolated in nature.  End Summary. 
 
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ARMM Elections 
-------------- 
 
3.  (SBU) The August 8 elections in the ARMM have proceeded 
in largely an orderly fashion.  The polls were open from 0700 
to 1500 local to elect a new governor, a new vice governor 
and all 24 members of the ARMM Regional Assembly.   The five 
Mission observer teams on the ground reported that voting 
began with a trickle, but steadily increased as the day wore 
on.  (Note:  There are five Mission teams in the region:  one 
in Basilan, two in Cotabato, one in Marawi and one in Sultan 
Kudarat.  End Note.)  The number of registered voters in the 
ARMM's five provinces and one chartered city was 1.3 million. 
 In 2001, 82 percent of registered voters participated in the 
elections.  The turnout figures for today's elections have 
not yet been released, though Mission observers are reporting 
somewhat higher than 70 percent turnout in most of the 
precincts they have visited. 
 
4.  (SBU)  In most precincts they observed, Mission teams 
reported that voting was orderly with a few isolated 
exceptions.  In several precincts in Marawi City, voting was 
delayed when Commission on Elections (COMELEC) officials were 
late in setting up voting stations.  However, by mid-morning 
all precincts that Mission team visited in Marawi were up and 
running.  Mission observers reported scattered occurrences of 
possible voting irregularities, including:  unauthorized 
people loitering close to polling places; bystanders 
apparently coaching voters; and illegal campaigning within 30 
meters of polling places.  COMELEC officials are also 
considering a possible declaration of "failure of election" 
over charges of "ballot snatching" in 10 barangays (village 
districts) in the area of Sumisip, Basilan Province.  Some 
voters also complained that they could not vote because 
employers in Cotabato City would not give them the day off to 
leave the area and go outside of it to vote.  (Note: 
Cotabato City, though the administrative capital of the ARMM, 
is technically not part of the ARMM and is not covered by the 
election holiday in the region.  End Note.) 
 
------------------------ 
Largely Peaceful, So Far 
------------------------ 
 
5.  (SBU) As of the close of polls, no incidents of serious 
violence have been reported.  Philippine security forces were 
strongly in evidence throughout the region.  According to the 
Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) Southern Command, 
12,000 soldiers and 6,400 police personnel are securing the 
elections.  The security forces have set up hundreds of 
checkpoints to prevent the entry of unauthorized elements and 
to search for weapons.  Security forces have reported that 
they were closely monitoring 122 "hot spots" in Lanao del Sur 
and Maguindinao Provinces where incidents of election-related 
violence have been reported in the past.  The AFP was also 
monitoring about a dozen identified "hot spots" on the island 
provinces of Sulu and Tawi Tawi so identified due to tensions 
between members of rival political clans vying for Assembly 
seats.  Thus far, as in other places in the region, the 
situation in the "hot spots" appears to have been basically 
peaceful and manageable. 
 
6.  (U) There were two incidents of note.  Alleged supporters 
of a local official in Lanao del Sur Province fired shots 
near a polling precinct, causing COMELEC to temporarily 
suspend voting.  No injuries were reported in the incident. 
In addition, according to local media, a group in South Upi, 
Maguindinao Province, barricaded the municipal hall, 
preventing voting from taking place.  The group is reportedly 
upset over a still-unresolved protest it filed over the 2004 
mayoral elections.  COMELEC officials announced today they 
may have to extend voting in the area until tomorrow.  So 
far, there are no reports of any violence or injuries in 
connection with this latter incident. 
 
----------------------- 
Counting will take Time 
----------------------- 
 
7. (SBU) With the closing of the polls, ballots are now being 
gathered and moved to regional counting centers for 
tabulation.  This move to regional centers was an innovation 
by COMELEC, which wanted to reduce the possibility of fraud. 
Counting will take time, as ballots must be transported from 
outlying precincts to counting centers in Cotabato City and 
elsewhere.  (Note:  All ballots from Lanao del Sur and 
Maguindinao Provinces will be counted at centers set up in 
Cotabato City.  Ballots from the island provinces of Basilan, 
Sulu, and Tawi Tawi will be counted at central locations on 
each island.  End note.)  COMELEC Commissioner Florentino 
Tuason told poloff that he expects to announce the election 
results 48 hours after polls close (i.e., by August 10). 
Mission observer teams reported that poll watchers from 
President Arroyo's Lakas party have far outnumbered those 
from the opposition Liberal Party or other parties.  This 
would suggest that the campaign of Zaldy Ampatuan, the Lakas 
candidate, is particularly well-organized.  Ampatuan, the 
mayor of Shariff Aguak in Maguindinao Province, is the 
favorite to win the gubernatorial race over Ibrahim "Toto" 
Paglas and several other candidates who are less well-known 
(ref b). 
 
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Comment 
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8.  (SBU) Philippine elections have a well-justified 
reputation for fraud and violence.  So far, however, today's 
elections seem to have generally gone well.  It is still too 
early to declare the elections a success:  much fraud and 
violence in Philippine elections notoriously takes place 
during the counting phase, which is just beginning in the 
ARMM.  Thus, the situation needs continued close scrutiny by 
COMELEC, local monitors, the press, and security forces. 
Mission observation teams, along with those from other 
countries, appear to have played a positive role, with local 
monitors and average citizens in the Muslim-dominated region 
warmly welcoming our engagement.  The U.S. has also assisted 
by providing support through a grant to the International 
Foundation for Election Systems (IFES), which has helped 
improve COMELEC capabilities and train local monitors. 
 
JOHNSON