US embassy cable - 02HARARE2157

UNCLAS HARARE 002157 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/PD, AF/S, AF/RA 
NSC FOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL, PHUM, KPAO, KMDR, ZI 
SUBJECT: INDEPENDENT NEWSPAPERS CRITICIZE INACTION IN 
ABUJA 
 
 
  1.   Under title "The dialogue of the deaf" the 
      independent weekly "The Financial Gazette' (09/26) 
      comments: 
 
      "South African President Thabo Mbeki and his 
      Nigerian counterpart Olusegun Obasanjo have 
      predictably decided to postpone taking the tough 
      decisions that had been expected from them on 
      Zimbabwe, underlining once more that they value 
      the bonds of African brotherhood above all else. 
      In doing so, the two leaders have inevitably 
      placed themselves in direct conflict with 
      Zimbabwe's democratic forces and all who seek a 
      negotiated solution to a low-level conflict 
      which increasingly threatens southern Africa's 
      peace and stability. . .  When the present story 
      of Zimbabwe is finally written in years to come, 
      Mbeki and Obasanjo will stand out as the two 
      leaders who, at a critical time, thwarted the 
      people's interests by siding with those in 
      power. . .  They and all others who genuinely 
      wish Zimbabwe well should know better by now: 
      Harare never cares or listens to diplomacy and 
      it will not suddenly do so now or after the 
      March deadline.  These two leaders must take 
      full responsibility for whatever happens next in 
      Zimbabwe's descent into chaos.  Their 
      determination to secure short-term political 
      interests while postponing the inevitable, 
      however painful, could yet prove too costly for 
      them and their colleagues." 
 
  2.   Under title "Abuja let-off could unleash more 
      violence" the independent daily "The Daily News" 
      (09/26) comments: 
 
      ". . .If Thabo Mbeki and Olusegun Obasanjo 
      expect President Mugabe to be magnanimous in his 
      victory in Abuja, then they are woefully ill- 
      informed about his party's dossier of violence. 
      In rejoicing at their victory, many of his ZANU 
      PF supporters may unleash a new wave of violence 
      against the opposition - just for the hell of 
      it.  The failure to intensify sanctions against 
      Zimbabwe. . .could return to haunt the 
      Commonwealth, but particularly Mbeki and 
      Obasanjo. . .  But the will of the people of 
      Zimbabwe will not be denied expression for long. 
      It would be preferable if, in the end, it was 
      done peacefully.  What Mbeki and Obasanjo are 
      doing is to offer them a frightening option." 
 
SULLIVAN