US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI3262

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 07 TAIPEI 003262 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/04/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, ASEC, TW, Foreign Policy, Domestic Politics, Cross Strait Politics 
SUBJECT: CHINA OUTMANEUVERING TAIWAN IN AFRICA 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason 1.4 (b/d) 
 
1. (C) Summary: The PRC is promoting an economic and 
political campaign in Africa to expand its regional 
influence, secure natural resources, and pressure Taiwan's 
diplomatic partners.  Taiwan officials and African diplomats 
resident in Taipei state Beijing is offering economic 
incentives to governments in exchange for mining rights and 
is actively pursuing energy deals throughout the continent. 
The PRC is also using its growing international influence, 
wielding its UN Security Council membership for national 
gain, and using regional organizations to expand its presence 
in Africa and entice opposition leaders and government 
officials to derecognize Taiwan.  The diplomats further 
assess that Taipei's African foreign policy strategy is 
inadequate and does not address the current global realities 
in light of the PRC's growing international clout.  They note 
that Taiwan officials themselves see little hope for 
countering Beijing in Africa.  End summary. 
 
Beijing's Economic Campaign 
--------------------------- 
 
2. (C) Beijing has embarked on a focused economic campaign to 
expand ties and secure natural resources throughout the 
continent.  South African Representative Horst Brammer told 
AIT that the PRC is aggressively seeking resources and raw 
materials for Beijing's growing economic needs and is looking 
to Africa for crude oil, base metals, and other minerals.  He 
told AIT that while Beijing's influence across Africa is 
increasing, there is no good will in the PRC's efforts to 
promote its interests and noted that there is very little 
substantive PRC investment reaching African communities or 
promoting the long term interests of the region.  Brammer 
argued that the PRC is focused on its long term goal of 
securing political influence through its economy, but has 
little interest in providing meaningful investment.  It 
primarily wants to secure resources and get out. 
 
3. (C) Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) Deputy 
Director General for African Affairs, Jacques Wu, told AIT 
that the PRC's economic campaign in Africa includes a myriad 
of economic incentives and trade pacts to promote Beijing's 
interests.  Wu noted that Beijing is using Free Trade 
Agreements (FTA) to expand trade tries with several African 
nations including Uganda, Nigeria, and Kenya.  South Africa's 
Brammer reported that there have been many PRC sponsored 
trade delegations throughout the continent and said that 
Beijing is pushing an FTA with the Southern Africa 
Development Community (SADC), which is composed of thirteen 
nations in Southern Africa.  He told AIT that Pretoria 
anticipates Beijing will try to pressure South Africa 
demanding that Swaziland must derecognize Taiwan before 
PRC-SADC FTA talks can move forward. 
 
4. (C) Brammer also noted that Beijing has pressed African 
governments facing economic problems to sell a controlling 
stake in national resources in exchange for loans and cash. 
Brammer likened this to a new form of colonialism and 
lamented that some countries were essentially selling off 
their independence to the PRC as Beijing becomes entrenched 
in various sectors of their economies.  For example in 
Zimbabwe, he noted that President Robert Mugabe recently went 
to the PRC to seek a USD one billion dollar loan.  Beijing 
refused the loan but instead arranged a deal in which in 
exchange for assistance, Mugabe promised Beijing co-ownership 
of various mining rights in Zimbabwe.  In Senegal, MOFA's Wu 
said that Beijing is pursuing a similar strategy and has been 
trying to buy rights to iron mines. 
 
Actively Pursuing Oil Deals 
--------------------------- 
 
5. (C) A major focus of the PRC's campaign in Africa is its 
drive to secure oil resources.  Oman Commercial Office 
Director in Taipei Sulaiman Bin Sultan Al-Mughairy told AIT 
that the PRC is aggressively pursuing oil exploration 
projects in the Sudan, Sao Tome and Principe, Ghana, Chad and 
a number of other countries.  Chad Embassy First Counselor 
Guedmadingar Masdongar confirmed to AIT that Beijing is 
actively pursuing oil projects in Chad - a diplomatic partner 
of Taiwan - via joint ventures with Canadian and other energy 
firms.  Oman's Al-Mughairy told AIT that Taiwan has only 
recently begun making efforts to sign oil deals, largely in 
response to the PRC, but he remarked that Beijing already has 
a substantial advantage in Africa because it has the 
influence to block Taiwan.  The Director of the Forum on 
African Studies at National Chengchi University's Institute 
of International relations (IIR), Chen Shen-yen, added that 
Taiwan has been left out of the oil race in Africa because 
Taipei has mainly focused on maintaining African partners 
instead of pursuing ventures that benefit Taiwan's economic 
interests. 
 
PRC Migration Also Helping Beijing 
---------------------------------- 
 
6. (C) Large scale PRC migration to Africa is also advancing 
the PRC's economic reach.  South Africa's Brammer told AIT 
that there are large numbers of illegal and legal PRC 
immigrants residing in South Africa.  He said that Pretoria 
estimates there are 50,000-80,000 illegal PRC nationals and 
possibly as many as 100,000 legal Chinese residents in South 
Africa.  IIR's Chen noted that in addition to South Africa, 
West Africa is also seeing many PRC immigrants, who are 
helping advance Beijing's business interests by investing and 
seeking joint ventures with African firms.  Brammer lamented 
that the influx is also bringing PRC organized crime 
elements, which are involved in trafficking, smuggling, and 
other illegal activities.  He noted that there have been 
instances where Chinese tour groups visit South Africa but 
only the tour leader returns to the PRC. 
 
Courting Political and Government Leaders 
----------------------------------------- 
 
7. (C) Beijing is also utilizing its economic leverage to woo 
political and government leaders to switch ties from Taiwan 
to the PRC.  MOFA's Wu told AIT that Beijing has been 
focusing in particular on Taiwan ally Sao Tome and Principe's 
ruling party, the Movement for the Liberation of Sao Tome and 
Principe (MLSTP).  In February 2005, the PRC invited MLSTP 
head Manual Pinto to Beijing for talks on the prospects of 
Sao Tome switching diplomatic ties to Beijing (Note: Pinto 
was President of Sao Tome's Socialist Government from 
1975-1991.  End note).  Wu speculated that Beijing's interest 
in Sao Tome and Principe is Sao Tome's large oil reserves 
believed to be off-shore.  South Africa's Brammer opined that 
Sao Tome and Principe would be the next Taiwan diplomatic 
partner that will be lost to the PRC because of Beijing's 
heavy pressure. 
 
8. (C) MOFA's Wu told AIT that in Malawi and Swaziland the 
PRC is courting opposition leaders and political parties with 
promises of economic aid and kickbacks in exchange for 
encouraging the government to recognize Beijing.  IIR's Chen 
noted that Taiwan partner Senegal is also wavering because 
President Abdoulaye Wade is seeking to expand Dakar's 
international exposure and influence within the region and 
has approached global organizations for assistance.  Chen 
speculated that President Wade will need the PRC's support if 
he hopes to realize his aims of additional aid for Dakar and 
thus, will seek to open ties with the PRC. 
 
Using Multilateral Diplomacy 
---------------------------- 
 
9. (C) Beijing has sought to promote a foreign policy that 
utilizes multilateral organizations and its position on the 
Security Council to expand its influence in Africa and exert 
pressure on Taiwan.  South Africa's Brammer pointed out that 
in 2002 Beijing threatened to use its Security Council veto 
to block the peace keeping budget for Liberia if Monrovia did 
not switch diplomatic ties to the PRC. (Note: In response, 
Liberia recognized the PRC in October 2002. End note). 
MOFA's Wu added that the PRC is also using regional 
organizations such as the Africa Union, SADC, and the African 
Development Bank to pressure Taiwan's diplomatic partners. 
Chad's Masdongar told AIT that during African Union meetings, 
the Presidents of Senegal, Chad, and Sao Tome and Principe 
were encouraged by other African Union members to break 
relations with Taiwan.  IIR's Chen added that Beijing has 
also developed the Sino-Africa forum, which meets every two 
years, and uses this forum as a tool to build influence by 
forgiving debt and offering aid only to governments that 
recognize the PRC. 
Taiwan Unable to Combat Beijing 
------------------------------- 
 
10. (C) Taipei has been slow to adopt, or even face the need 
for a new long-term diplomatic strategy and has been content 
to rely on outdated policies to counter Beijing.  Taiwan 
government officials admit that Taipei's position in Africa 
is worsening, although MOFA's Wu said Taiwan is trying its 
best to maintain its small foothold in Africa by 
differentiating itself from Beijing with various aid projects 
that benefit the people rather than support corrupt 
officials.  He said that most of Taiwan's aid projects are 
focused on agriculture, health, education, and sanitation 
while Beijing typically builds large infrastructure projects 
such as soccer stadiums or bridges. 
 
11. (C) South Africa's Brammer agreed that Taipei has many 
excellent aid projects that do much for the region, but he 
argued that Taiwan is losing ground to the PRC because Taipei 
is still using "conventional diplomacy in an unconventional 
world." Brammer argued that Taiwan should adopt a different 
diplomatic strategy and that Taipei is wasting resources on 
inconsequential nations that do not give Taiwan anything in 
return.  He said that Taipei should focus on nations that 
play a larger role in Taiwan's stability and its commercial 
interests and contends that the Chen administration must not 
link independence rhetoric and Taiwanese identity to its 
diplomatic strategy.  He further asserted that Taiwan's 
obsession with diplomatic recognition has only reduced its 
international credibility because of the type of countries 
that Taipei supports. 
 
Comment: Little Taiwan Can or Will Do 
------------------------------------- 
 
12. (C) Taiwan has been unable to counter the PRC's challenge 
in Africa because Beijing has the resources and the strategy 
to outmaneuver and outbid Taipei.  On the home front in 
Taiwan, legislators and the public are growing weary of 
generous aid packages being offered to African nations simply 
to maintain symbolic diplomatic ties that offer little in 
return.  Taipei does have much to offer in the technical and 
humanitarian assistance arena, but new strategies that 
promote this experience can only go so far against the array 
of economic incentives Beijing is offering to African 
leaders.  Moreover, the majority of nations in Africa that 
recognize Taiwan are not overly concerned about Taipei's 
democratic values and, more often than not, the biggest 
factor in the recognition game is simply how much aid flows 
into the government's pockets.  As long as Taiwan continues 
to refuse to address this reality and relies on traditional 
diplomatic strategies, Taipei will continue to be 
marginalized in Africa and around the world. 
PAAL