US embassy cable - 05KINGSTON1888

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINGSTON 001888 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CAR (BENT) 
NSC FOR SHANNON 
SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD AND J7 (RHANNAN) 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/05/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PINR, JM 
SUBJECT: PNP INSIDER COMMENTS ON RACE TO SUCCEED PRIME 
MINISTER 
 
REF: KINGSTON 01652 
 
Classified By: Pol/Econ Chief Mark J. Powell for reasons 1.4(b) and (d) 
 
1. (U) Summary: On July 28, Pol/Econ Chief and Poloff met 
with Balfour Denniston, local businessman and member of the 
People's National Party's (PNP) National Executive Committee 
(NEC), the ruling party's highest decision-making body 
outside of its annual conference.  Denniston shared his 
perspective on the current state of the PNP succession race, 
and offered his thoughts Prime Minister PJ Patterson's 
announcement that he might not step down before local 
government elections in 2006.  End Summary. 
 
2. (C) At a two-day session of the People's National Party's 
(PNP) National Executive Committee (NEC) held on July 23 and 
24, Prime Minister PJ Patterson surprised many observers by 
announcing that he would likely remain in office long enough 
to lead the party through local government elections in June 
2006. 
Although the Prime Minister has never stated explicitly when 
he plans to demit office, it previously was widely expected 
that he would step down around March 2006.  On July 28, 
Pol/Econ Chief and Poloff met with Balfour Denniston, local 
businessman and long-standing member of the NEC, which is the 
party's highest decision-making body outside of its annual 
convention.  Denniston, who attended the NEC, offered his 
thoughts on the announcement, which, he asserted, did not 
surprise party insiders.  He said that Patterson is known to 
want to complete a number of initiatives before his departure 
in order to secure his legacy.  Specifically, Denniston 
mentioned Patterson's desire to lead the G-77 in New York in 
September as Prime Minister and G-77 Chair.  Observers also 
suggest that presiding over a victory in the 2006 local 
government elections would be something of a vindication for 
Patterson, whose record in national elections was tarnished 
when the PNP lost in 10 of 12 parishes in 2003. 
 
3. (C) Denniston proffered that Patterson wishes to stay in 
office long enough to allow his preferred successor, Finance 
Minister Omar Davies, time to consolidate his campaign. 
While Davies still lags well behind most other PNP 
candidates, polls indicate that the Finance Minister has 
recently begun to gain some ground in the race (Ref A).  By 
staying on in office longer, Patterson hopes that the Davies' 
"Campaign for Prosperity" will continue to strengthen, said 
Denniston.  He added that Davies' support is very strong in 
the local business community (an important source of campaign 
contributions), and that some international lending 
institutions have &all but said8 that they, too, favor 
Davies.  The Finance Minister's recent movement in the polls, 
said Denniston, is eroding some of National Security Minister 
Peter Phillips, support, because the two candidates share a 
similar support base. 
 
4. (C) Denniston explained that the Prime Minister favors 
Davies at least in part because of his (Patterson's) 
contentious history with the two current frontrunners, 
Phillips and Portia Simpson Miller, Minister of Local 
Government, Community Development, and Sports.  Simpson 
Miller openly defied Patterson and the PNP when, while 
serving as acting Prime Minister in late 2004, she abstained 
during a vote called by the Jamaica Labor Party (and opposed 
by PNP MPs) in Parliament in favor of desperately needed 
funding for the fire services.  (Though widely popular with 
the general public as a "principled position" given the 
decrepit state of the fire brigade, her abstention provoked 
vehement condemnation from very senior members of the PNP, 
who were embarrassed by the crack in their parliamentary 
solidarity.  Foreign Minister K.D. Knight even shouted an 
expletive at Simpson Miller in Parliament, an outburst for 
which he subsequently apologized.)  Denniston says the party 
has distrusted Simpson Miller ever since.  Phillips, 
Denniston said, is a holdover from the 1989-1992 Michael 
Manley administration who could not be marginalized by 
Patterson because he controlled the party's invaluable donor 
list.  Denniston cited as an additional source of 
Patterson/Phillips friction the National Security Minister's 
more pragmatic views on cooperating with the United States. 
Phillips, he said, had once opposed Patterson during a 
Cabinet discussion of the war in Iraq, something Denniston 
emphasized had not gone down well with Patterson or with some 
of the other ministers present. 
 
5. (C) Within the party, Denniston asserted, Phillips 
nevertheless commands the support of much of the Cabinet, the 
NEC, most PNP Members of Parliament, and the delegates, while 
Simpson Miller is extremely popular with the general public. 
Denniston said that this distinction makes national polls 
unreliable, since public surveys tend to skew in favor of the 
popular choice and do not accurately reflect the support of 
the delegates who actually call the shots.  He added that, 
despite Simpson Miller's overwhelming public support, the 
party continues to doubt her leadership ability.  Because the 
PNP prides itself on the level of education and perceived 
intellect of its leaders, Denniston said, a Simpson Miller 
presidency would be "an aberration."  Simpson Miller is 
frequently criticized for lacking the intellectual capacity 
to govern; she is the only PNP candidate without an advanced 
degree.  Her response to date has been to state publicly that 
she has extensive relevant experience in charge of several 
ministerial portfolios, and that she would also rely heavily 
on advisors to govern the country.  The latter notion has 
been met with derision within the party, according to 
Denniston.  "Why not just let the advisors lead the country?" 
he asked.  Denniston has said in the past that, were Simpson 
Miller to win the party presidency, Davies' skill and 
international contacts would make him the de facto leader. 
 
6. (C) Denniston said that Patterson will very likely leave 
office at least one year before the next general election, 
which must take place by October 2007.  By putting a 
successor in place by mid-2006, he explained, the PNP will 
leave its new leader, who will be the acting Prime Minister, 
an entire year in office before the national vote takes 
place.  Having a candidate so entrenched in the position will 
give the incumbent PNP an obvious advantage over Jamaica 
Labor Party leader Bruce Golding. 
 
7. (C) Comment: The extremely personable Denniston, a PNP 
veteran, claims once to have served as a campaign manager for 
Phillips.  In a party and society in which an advanced degree 
in any subject often means considerably more to one's 
prospects for advancement and for commanding respect than 
demonstrated competence in any field of endeavor (including 
politics), he clearly holds little regard for the prospect of 
Simpson Miller as PNP leader and prime minister.  Denniston's 
analysis generally track with what we have heard from other 
contacts about the PNP's internal race to succeed Patterson. 
Unlike the JLP, however, which is only just emerging from a 
bitter, protracted and very public succession battle to 
replace 30-year party leader Edward Seaga, the PNP largely 
manages to shield its internal jockeying for leadership from 
public view, avoiding messy headlines self-inflicted wounds. 
It is early days yet, but with elections due by October 2007, 
the ruling party does not seem overly concerned with Golding. 
TIGHE