US embassy cable - 05CARACAS2388

C O N F I D E N T I A L  CARACAS 002388 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR CBARTON 
HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/18/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, VE 
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR MEETS WITH OAS MISSION LEADER PERINA 
 
 
Classified By: ACTING DEPUTY CHIEF OF MISSION JOHN S. CREAMER FOR 1.4 ( 
D) 
 
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Summary 
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1.  (C)   Ambassador met with OAS mission head Ruben Perina 
and local OAS Representative Patricio Carbacho Thursday, 
August 4 to emphasize USG concerns that the OAS and European 
Union coordinate their strategies to ensure a credible 
international observation of the legislative elections in 
December.  Perina took on board the Ambassador's comments, 
but expressed concern that the OAS might find itself in a 
difficult position if the National Electoral Council (CNE) 
was more favorable toward the OAS' proposal than that of the 
EU.  Carbacho thought coordination would be easier to achieve 
if it occurred at the EU Secretariat and OAS Secretary 
General level.  Post believes follow up discussions with 
Perina and the Secretary General's office in Washington is 
also necessary.  End summary. 
 
2.  (C) Ambassador met with OAS Mission head Ruben Perina and 
OAS resident Representative Patricio Carbacho, Thursday 
August 4.  Perina, who led the OAS' observer mission during 
the 2000 elections, is in Caracas to explore prospects for 
launching an OAS electoral observer mission for the 
legislative elections is December.  Carbacho has been OAS 
representative in Venezuela for 13 years and has watched the 
decline of the electoral system over the past five years. 
 
3.  (C)  The Ambassador said the near certainty of an 
overwhelming ruling party victory in the December elections 
made it necessary for any observation effort to focus on 
ensuring a transparent electoral process.  The only way for 
this to occur would be for an international observation 
mission deemed credible by opposition and government 
supporters to oversee electoral preparations and 
implementation.  The Ambassador stressed that the observers 
must have at a minimum open access to all CNE offices, the 
right to name all members of their observation mission, and 
the right to publicly comment and publish reports on the 
process without CNE interference.  Absent this, the 
Ambassador suggested the best option would be to refuse to 
observe lest the organization be taken advantage of, lose 
opposition confidence, and polarize the already tense 
political system even more. He said the CNE is currently 
refusing to grant the EU these essential rights. Given the 
history of the OAS' observation of the 2004 recall 
referendum, it would damage the OAS' credibility if it agreed 
to observe the December elections and the EU refused due to 
CNE instransigence. On this issue, perception might be more 
important than reality. 
 
4. (C) The Ambassador thought the European Union and OAS were 
in a strong position to demand these assurances since 
President Chavez expects to win easily in December and was 
eager to have the elections blessed by the international 
community.  The Ambassador urged Perina to coordinate his 
negotiation strategy and observation proposal with the EU to 
maximize both organizations' bargaining leverage with the 
CNE.  While recognizing that time was running out for 
negotiating with the CNE, the Ambassador emphasized that 
consultations were important to preserve the integrity of 
future international observation.  (Note: The EU will present 
its last proposal to the CNE next week after the OAS 
delegation departs.) 
 
5.  (C) Perina accepted the Ambassador's advice, noting that 
OAS SYG Insulza had instructed him to work closely with the 
EU. Perina said he was aware of the problems that occurred 
between the OAS and CNE during last year's recall referendum 
and vowed not to compromise on any of the conditions in the 
proposal (which is the OAS-GOV observation agreement for the 
2000 elections) he planned to present to the CNE on Friday. 
He also said he had seen a copy of the EU proposal and 
thought that it coincided with the OAS position and the 
minimum conditions raised by the Ambassador. Still, Perina 
was concerned the EU might be more demanding in its 
negotiations than the OAS, which would have to answer to its 
member countries in the region if it was perceived to be too 
strict.  He also worried that the CNE might accept the OAS' 
 
 
conditions but reject the EU's proposal, leaving the OAS in a 
difficult position.  Perina said the OAS would need an 
invitation from the CNE by the beginning of September to have 
enough time to mount a credible observation effort. The EU 
will also need an agreement by that date. 
 
6.  (C) Carbacho suggested that the EU Secretariat contact 
Secretary General Insulza to propose a coordinated strategy. 
 
SIPDIS 
Perina said that despite Insulza's interest in cooperating 
with the EU, he could not originate the proposal without 
appearing biased against the GOV and provoking regional 
criticism. The Ambassador volunteered to raise that prospect 
with Washington to facilitate the dialogue. 
 
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Comment 
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7.  (C) We impressed upon Perina and Carbacho the CNE's 
intention and ability to co-opt any international observers 
it can to validate its biased and skewed electoral system. 
The CNE is part of the problem, not the solution.  As shown 
by its treatment of the EU's draft, the CNE is unlikey to 
accept all the OAS observation conditions. We believe it 
would be a mistake for the OAS to observe the elections if 
the EU refuses to due so because of the CNE's insistence on 
unacceptable conditions.   If the OAS does so, it will 
reinforce the local perception that the OAS is incapable of 
resisting GOV pressure. Perina appears to be aware of the 
CNE's wiles and of the need to work with the EU, but he seems 
unsure on how to proceed.  We urge the  Department to meet 
with OAS SYG Insulza to reiterate the need for the OAS to 
stand firm with the EU in the face of GOV pressure.  In 
addition, we ask that the Department meet with the 
appropriate EU representatives to encourage them to 
coordinate closely with the OAS on the observation conditions 
and on their subsequent implementation. We will nudge the EU 
reps down here in the same direction. 
Brownfield 
 
 
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      2005CARACA02388 - CONFIDENTIAL