US embassy cable - 05CARACAS2385

C O N F I D E N T I A L  CARACAS 002385 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR CBARTON 
HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/18/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, VE 
SUBJECT: VENEZUELA GEARS UP FOR MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS 
 
REF: CARACAS 02201 
 
Classified By: ACTING DEPUTY CHIEF OF MISSION 
JOHN S. CREAMER FOR 1.4 (D) 
 
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Summary 
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1.  (C) This Sunday Venezuelans will go to the polls to 
elect the equivalent of city and neighborhood councils. 
The outcome is not in doubt-- Chavez' ruling coalition is 
expected to do at least as well as it did in the regional 
elections last October when it won all but two 
governorships and a majority of mayorships.  Opposition 
parties- still reeling from last year's electoral defeats- 
have struggled to mount an effective campaign with many 
smaller parties and NGOs calling for voters to abstain. 
The GOV has countered with a get out the vote effort based 
on the claim that the abstention call is a US-opposition 
plot to delegitimize the GOV and destabilize the regime. 
With voter apathy toward local elections traditionally 
high- more than 70 percent of registered voters have not 
turned out in recent local elections- it will be difficult 
to distinguish between voter indifference and those 
abstaining for political reasons. 
 
2.  (C) With the GOV's victory assured, attention is 
focused on the pro-GOV bias of the National Electoral 
Council (CNE) and the extent to which its actions favoring 
the GOV will set a precedent for the legislative elections 
this December when all 165 seats in the National Assembly 
will be up for grabs.  Leading electoral NGO Sumate has 
sharply criticized the CNE for not meeting five basic 
conditions for a free and fair vote.  These are: a reliable 
electoral registry, a guaranteed secret vote, 
independently audited voting software, a manual vote count, 
and credible international electoral observation. CNE 
President Jorge Rodriguez says more than 100 foreign 
officials/individuals will observe the elections, but 
none of the credible international electoral observer, 
such as the EU or OAS, will observe.  End summary. 
 
3.  (U) Approximately 45,000 people are running for almost 
6,000 seats on the equivalent of city and neighborhood 
councils.  In addition, the voters in Amazonas will elect 
their governor.  Polls are scheduled to open around 6 am 
and keep their lines open until 4 pm.  The CNE is 
predicting it will have preliminary results later that 
evening.  The Embassy will deploy several teams around 
Caracas to monitor voting.  A 20 meter sink hole on 
the main road out of Caracas and security concerns on 
alternative routes prevent us from going outside of the 
capital, but we will monitor voting in a representative 
number of pro-government and opposition neighborhoods. 
 
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Most Opposition Parties Participating 
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4.  (C) The mainstream political opposition is participating 
in the elections in hopes of preserving some political space, 
despite their reservations about the electoral system as well 
as their expectation of a sound defeat.  Major parties such 
as Accion Democratica (AD), COPEI, Movement toward Socialism 
(MAS), and Primera Justica (PJ), for example, are running 
candidates in all states.  Their leaders are billing 
participation as a way to defend one's right to vote and to 
bring irregular1ies in the electoral system to light.  MAS 
leader Felipe Mujica told Acting DCM that the opposition is 
considering releasing a five point statement Saturday to 
encourage their supporters to vote while vowing to fight 
together to correct problems in the CNE.  Meanwhile, 
smaller parties such as Alianza Bravo Pueblo (ABP), 
Izquierda Democratica, and Gente de Petroleo are calling 
for people to abstain to protest the compromised CNE and 
to deny the vote legitimacy.  These pro-abstention groups 
marched July 30 for transparency in the electoral system. 
The march ended with minor violence when the Metropolitan 
Police intervened to prevent a clash between protesters and 
pro-Chavez Tupamaro members waiting in front of the CNE. 
In Zulia State, several candidates from these smaller 
 
parties withdrew from the race protesting the CNE's failure 
to address opposition concerns.  According to one Embassy 
contact, candidates in other states will do the same before 
Friday. 
 
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Government Determined to Get Out the Vote 
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5.  (C)  The government is doing all it can to boost voter 
turnout.  President Chavez is calling those who support 
abstention coupists and National Electoral Council (CNE) 
President Jorge Rodriguez has threatened to file charges 
against anyone openly advocating such a practice.  MVR 
officials are urging a large turnout to thwart an alleged 
US-Sumate plot to delegitimize the GOV through an abstention 
campaign.  According to daily El Nacional, the MVR has 
developed "Operation Gallop," an old AD plan for bussing 
people to the polls.  Embassy contacts say this election is 
seen as yet another opportunity for MVR party leaders, 
governors, and mayors to show their mobilization skills. 
The MVR is reportedly offering 3 meals and 90,000 bolivars 
(approximately USD 45) to vote.  The MVR will even supply 
umbrellas in case of rain. 
 
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CNE Continues to Play Favorites 
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6.  (C) The legacy of last year's referendum, the CNE's 
unwillingness to communicate with the opposition, and its 
approval of a number of controversial decisions continues 
to generate distrust in the process.  Copei leader Enrique 
Naime and PJ representative Juan Carlos Caldera told 
poloffs the CNE has canceled several meetings with the 
opposition and has not responded to opposition inquiries or 
kept them well-informed about preparations for the vote. 
In contrast, the CNE has continuously supplied the MVR with 
information and allowed candidates from a new, pro-Chavez 
party to run even though the party has not been recognized. 
 
7.  (C) Sumate, which has led the opposition's call for 
changes in the electoral system, has summarized its concerns 
into five basic conditions for a free and fair election. 
First Sumate is calling for an independent audit of the 
electoral registry, which has not been reviewed since the 
government's Mision Identidad program registered almost three 
million new voters in the run up to last year's referendum. 
The voter rolls the CNE distributed to political parties in 
the run up to this Sunday's election did not contain enough 
information for the parties to do their own review.  (Note: 
By law and tradition it is supposed to.)  CAPEL will do a 
study of the REP, but it will not be a full, independent 
audit as CAPEL will rely on information supplied by the CNE 
and will not look at Onidex, the office in charge of issuing 
national identity cards (cedulas) (Ref A).  (Note: As of 
August 3, CAPEL has not arrived.  An NDI official told poloff 
the CNE had not paid CAPEL; a newspaper and Caldera have said 
CAPEL is waiting for the CNE to determine political party and 
NGO participation in the study.) 
 
8.  (C) Sumate is also concerned about the electronic 
notebooks the CNE plans to test in Cojedes and Nueva Esparta 
states to record the signature and thumbprint of each voter. 
These notebooks are theoretically an anti-fraud device, but 
there is suspicion that the government will be able to 
cross-reference the information with the sequence of votes 
cast to determine how each person voted.  In addition, the 
CNE has not allowed political parties or NGOs to 
independently review the software used in the voting machines 
as it did before last year's referendum.  Instead, the CNE 
held a demonstration at the Simon Bolivar University.  The 
opposition is also calling for a manual vote count of each 
ballot box in accordance with the electoral law and qualified 
international observers to monitor the vote. 
 
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Abstention 
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9.  (SBU) Abstention, due to disinterest, has traditionally 
been high for these elections and is unlikely to be 
 
significantly influenced by opposition or government efforts. 
According to CNE statistics for the first exclusive election 
for these posts in 2000, abstention was over 75 percent. 
While dissatisfaction with the CNE may encourage some not to 
vote, it will be difficult to differentiate these voters from 
the apathetic.  PJ Secretary General Gerardo Blyde told us 
August 5 that he expects only 25-30 percent of registered 
voters to go to the polls. 
 
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Comment: Expect a Bumpy Road to December 
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10.  (C) The preparation for Sunday's elections offers little 
prospect that the electoral process for legislative elections 
in December will be either fair or transparent. The CNE 
continues to blatantly favor the government.  Unless the CNE 
decides to be more open in its dealings with the public and 
the opposition, distrust will grow and will impact voter 
participation at a time when the opposition will need its 
supporters the most.  CAPEL's delayed arrival means the audit 
of the electoral registry will probably not be complete 
before November, allowing little time for the CNE to 
implement changes even if board members wanted to.  We 
understand that the CNE's changes to the European Union's 
proposal to observe the December elections were unacceptable, 
and the EU may walk if its minimum conditions are not met 
(septel). 
 
Brownfield 
 
 
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      2005CARACA02385 - CONFIDENTIAL