US embassy cable - 02ROME4668

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ROME 004668 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/25/2012 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PINR, MARR, IZ, PGOV, PINR, MARR, IZ, IT, ITPREL, IRAQI FREEDOM 
SUBJECT: ITALIAN PARLIAMENTARY DEBATE ON IRAQ:  BERLUSCONI 
UNDERSCORES ALLIANCE WITH U.S. 
 
REF: A. ROME 4625 
 
     B. ROME 4484 
 
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CLASSIFIED BY: POL MINCOUNS THOMAS COUNTRYMAN, REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D) 
 
1.  (C)  SUMMARY:  IN HIS PRESENTATIONS BEFORE PARLIAMENT, 
ITALY'S PRIME MINISTER BERLUSCONI FOCUSED ON THE NEED TO 
SUPPORT THE UNITED STATES, UNDERSCORED THE THREAT FROM IRAQ'S 
WEAPONS CAPABILITIES, AND NOTED THAT MULTILATERAL 
ORGANIZATIONS MUST BE EFFECTIVE IN ORDER TO KEEP INDIVIDUAL 
COUNTRIES FROM ACTING UNILATERALLY.  THE GOVERNING COALITION 
IS LINED UP SQUARELY BEHIND THE PRIME MINISTER.  THE 
OPPOSITION MAINTAINS ITS RESERVATIONS, ESPECIALLY THE NEED TO 
AVOID UNILATERAL ACTION, WITH PUBLIC STATEMENTS HEAVY ON THE 
NEED TO "PREVENT WAR" AND NEGATIVE ON POTENTIAL ITALIAN 
INVOLVEMENT.  PRIVATELY, THE MORE CENTRIST ELEMENTS OF THE 
OPPOSITION ARE PREPARED TO CONCEDE THE POTENTIAL NEED FOR 
MILITARY INTERVENTION -- UNDER UN AUSPICES.  EMBASSY 
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE NATURE OF THE THREAT TO CONTACTS 
BOTH IN THE GOVERNMENT AND IN THE OPPOSITION.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (U)  PRIME MINISTER BERLUSCONI PRESENTED THE GOI POSITION 
ON IRAQ TO THE CHAMBER OF DEPUTIES AT 10:30 A.M. ON SEPTEMBER 
25 AND TO THE SENATE AT 4:30 P.M. THE SAME DAY.  HIS SPEECH 
FOCUSED ON THE NEED TO SUPPORT THE UNITED STATES AND 
UNDERSCORED THAT EFFECTIVE MULTILATERAL ACTION COULD PRECLUDE 
THE NEED FOR UNILATERAL ACTION BY THE USG.  THE PRIME 
MINISTER MADE CLEAR THAT THE THREAT POSED BY SADDAM HUSSEIN 
AND HIS WMD IS REAL:  IT IS "A REGIME THAT THREATENS TO USE 
DREADFUL CHEMICAL AND BACTERIOLOGICAL TOOLS THAT COULD LEAD 
TO DRAMATIC EVENTS."  BERLUSCONI EMPHASIZED THAT ITALY, ON 
THE BASIS OF ITS NATIONAL INTERESTS, MUST WORK WITH EUROPE 
AND THE UNITED STATES TO ELIMINATE THE IRAQI THREAT AND IRAQI 
WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION AND TO ENSURE A STRONG, DETAILED, 
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CLEAR UN RESOLUTION DEFINING CONDITIONS FOR THE "MEASURED USE 
OF FORCE" IN CASE OF A NEW IRAQI CHALLENGE TO THE 
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY.  HE CHARACTERIZED THE HISTORICAL 
COST OF INACTION AS "INCALCULABLE."  THE ONLY ALTERNATIVE, 
THEREFORE, IS THE CONSTRUCTION OF A COALITION CAPABLE OF 
IMPOSING ON IRAQ RESPECT FOR A NEW, STRONG, CLEAR AND 
PRESSING UN RESOLUTION.  REFERRING TO ITALY'S CONSTITUTION, 
BERLUSCONI SAID "ITALY REPUDIATES WAR AS AN OFFENSIVE 
INSTRUMENT," BUT ADDED THAT PREVENTION IS SOMETIMES NECESSARY. 
 
3.  (C)  THE GOVERNING COALITION LINED UP BEHIND THE PRIME 
MINISTER.  MEETING WITH THE DCM AWAY FROM THE DEBATE, CHAMBER 
FOREIGN AFFAIRS COMMITTEE CHAIRMAN GUSTAVO SELVA (NATIONAL 
ALLIANCE, AN) SAID HIS DEFENSE COMMITTEE COUNTERPART, LUIGI 
RAMPONI (AN), WAS TAKING THE SAME POSITION AS THE PM IN THE 
CHAMBER EVEN AS SELVA AND THE DCM MET (REF A).  FERDINANDO 
ADORNATO, CHAIRMAN OF THE CHAMBER'S CULTURE AND SCIENCE 
COMMITTEE AND FORMER PARTY SPOKESMAN, WOULD SPEAK FOR 
BERLUSCONI'S FORZA ITALIA (FI) PARTY.  "WE WILL NOT LEAVE THE 
U.S. ALONE," SELVA ASSURED US. 
 
4.  (U)  OPPOSITION REPRESENTATIVES, NOT SURPRISINGLY, 
OPPOSED BERLUSCONI'S STATEMENT.  MARGHERITA (DAISY) PARTY 
PRESIDENT FRANCESCO RUTELLI SAID THERE WAS NO SPACE FOR A 
UNILATERAL SOLUTION IN EITHER WAR OR PEACE.  NOTHING CAN 
SUBSTITUTE FOR UN LEGITIMACY, AND A U.S. DECISION CANNOT 
AUTOMATICALLY BECOME AN INTERNATIONAL OR ITALIAN ONE.  LIKE 
DEMOCRATS OF THE LEFT (DS) REPRESENTATIVES, RUTELLI 
EMPHASIZED THE NEED FOR ITALY TO WORK WITH ITS EUROPEAN 
ALLIES.  (RUTELLI ADDED "AND AMERICA.")  DS SECRETARY PIERO 
FASSINO RHETORICALLY ASKED BERLUSCONI:  WHAT CONSEQUENCES 
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WOULD WAR HAVE FOR RELATIONS BETWEEN WESTERN AND ISLAMIC 
SOCIETIES?  WHAT REPLY COULD ITALY EXPECT IN THE WAY OF 
TERRORIST ACTS?  WHAT WOULD BE THE CONSEQUENCES FOR THE 
MIDDLE EAST?  FASSINO SAID THE PARLIAMENTARY DEBATE SHOWED 
THAT ITALY SHOULD DO ALL IN ITS POWER TO AVOID WAR.  DS 
PRESIDENT MASSIMO D'ALEMA ACCUSED BERLUSCONI OF BEING NOT AN 
ALLY OF, BUT SUBSERVIENT TO, THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION.  IN 
KOSOVO, HE SAID, THERE WAS THE NEED TO DEFEND CIVILIANS WHO 
WERE THREATENED AND EVICTED FROM THEIR HOMES.  IN 
AFGHANISTAN, THERE WAS EVIDENCE OF A TERRORIST PRESENCE AND 
THE WORLD ACTED IN CONFORMITY WITH INTERNATIONAL 
LEGITIMIZATION.  NOW, HE CONTINUED, ITALY IS CONFRONTED WITH 
THE IDEA OF A PREVENTIVE WAR, WITH PROPOSED ACTION OUTSIDE 
THE FRAMEWORK OF INTERNATIONAL LEGITIMACY.  D'ALEMA 
INACCURATELY ACCUSED BERLUSCONI OF FAILING EVEN TO MENTION 
THE EUROPEAN UNION IN HIS REMARKS.  THE GREENS, COMMUNIST 
RENEWAL, AND THE ITALIAN COMMUNIST PARTY ALL CRITICIZED THE 
SPEECH, AS WELL. 
 
5.  (C)  PUBLIC REMARKS FROM THE OPPOSITION ARE MORE STRIDENT 
THAN THOSE THEY MAKE TO US IN PRIVATE.  POLMINCOUNS MET 
SEPARATELY WITH THE PARLIAMENTARY SPOKESPEOPLE ON 
 
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                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ8641 
 
PAGE 01        ROME  04668  02 OF 02  251805Z 
ACTION EUR-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    CIAE-00  DODE-00  SRPP-00  VC-00    H-01 
      TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00    L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    NEA-00 
      NSAE-00  OIC-02   OMB-01   PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00 
      P-00     SP-00    SSO-00   SS-00    TRSE-00  T-00     USIE-00 
      PMB-00   DRL-02   G-00     SAS-00     /007W 
                  ------------------ECD059  251805Z /45 
O 251713Z SEP 02 
FM AMEMBASSY ROME 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6010 
INFO SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY 
JOINT STAFF WASHDC PRIORITY 
NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE 
AMCONSUL FLORENCE 
AMCONSUL MILAN 
AMCONSUL NAPLES 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 ROME 004668 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/25/2012 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PINR, MARR, IZ, IT 
SUBJECT: ITALIAN PARLIAMENTARY DEBATE ON IRAQ:  BERLUSCONI 
UNDERSCORES ALLIANCE WITH U.S. 
 
INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS FOR THE DAISY AND DS PARTIES THE 
MORNING OF SEPTEMBER 25.  BOTH WERE WILLING TO LISTEN TO U.S. 
VIEWS AND FULLY CONSCIOUS OF THE NEED TO PREVENT ANTI-WAR 
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ARGUMENTS FROM BECOMING ANTI-U.S. RHETORIC.  BOTH STRONGLY 
UNDERSCORED THE IMPERATIVE FOR UN SUPPORT FOR ANY ACTION IN 
IRAQ.  DAISY REPRESENTATIVE LAPO PISTELLI WAS MORE 
FORWARD-LEANING AND ACKNOWLEDGED THAT UN WEAKNESS COULD FORCE 
A U.S. REACTION.  DS REP MARINA SERENI WAS LESS WILLING TO 
CONCEDE THE POTENTIAL NEED FOR MILITARY INTERVENTION AND THE 
FACT THAT IRAQ HELD THE KEY FOR PREVENTING IT.  EACH MADE 
CLEAR THAT BAGHDAD HAD ZERO CREDIBILITY WITH THE ITALIAN 
LEFT.  HOWEVER, EACH SAID THAT THE USG SEEMED TO BE 
UNDERESTIMATING THE NEGATIVE REGIONAL CONSEQUENCES OF U.S. 
MILITARY ACTION. 
 
6.  (C)  THE PRIME MINISTER'S DEPUTY DIPLOMATIC ADVISER, 
PAOLO DIONISI, TOLD DCM AND POLMINCOUNS THE AFTERNOON OF 
SEPTEMBER 25 THAT BERLUSCONI WAS VERY SATISFIED WITH HIS 
STATEMENT BEFORE PARLIAMENT AND WITH THOSE MADE BY HIS 
COALITION PARTNERS.  DIONISI THOUGHT OPPOSITION REACTION WAS 
PREDICTABLE AND MANAGEABLE. 
 
7.  (C)  COMMENT:  IN HIS SPEECH, BERLUSCONI DID A SOLID JOB 
IN CONTINUING TO LAY THE GROUND TO BRING PUBLIC OPINION 
BEHIND HIM IF THE U.S. CALLS ON ITALY TO SUPPORT ACTION 
AGAINST IRAQ (REF B).  HE URGED INTERNATIONAL ACTION, BUT 
UNDERSCORED SUCH ACTION MUST BE STRONG, CLEAR, DECISIVE -- 
AND BACKED BY THE WILLINGNESS TO USE FORCE.  HIS COALITION IS 
SUPPORTING THE PM IN HIS EFFORTS TO BRING THE ITALIAN PUBLIC 
ALONG.  OPPOSITION INSISTENCE ON A UN IMPRIMATUR, HOWEVER, IS 
ALSO A VERY REAL REFLECTION OF PUBLIC OPINION HERE.  EVEN 
ITALIANS ALREADY PERSUADED THAT WE MUST ACT AGAINST IRAQ 
UNDERSCORE THAT ACTION UNDER A UN UMBRELLA IS FAR PREFERABLE 
TO ACTION ALONE OR BY ONLY A FEW. CHAMBER FOREIGN AFFAIRS 
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COMMITTEE CHAIR SELVA EXPRESSED SATISFACTION FOLLOWING HIS 
MEETING WITH THE DCM, SAYING "YOU HAVE REINFORCED JUST THOSE 
POINTS I WANTED TO HEAR" WITH REFERENCE TO THE FACT THAT 
PRESIDENT BUSH HAS NOT DECIDED ABSOLUTELY IN FAVOR OF 
MILITARY ACTION AND THAT THE U.S. WOULD PREFER TO ACT THROUGH 
THE UN AND IN CONCERT WITH ITS ALLIES.  IF AND WHEN THE TIME 
COMES, BERLUSCONI WILL DO HIS UTMOST TO HELP AND SUPPORT THE 
USG, BUT HIS ABILITY TO ACT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY RESTRICTED 
ABSENT A UN MANDATE, OR AT LEAST A BROAD AND COHESIVE 
INTERNATIONAL COALITION. 
SEMBLER 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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 2002ROME04668 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL