US embassy cable - 05TELAVIV4829

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 004829 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/04/2015 
TAGS: ECON, PGOV, PREL, KWBG, IS, GAZA DISENGAGEMENT, GOI INTERNAL 
SUBJECT: GAZA DISENGAGEMENT: ISRAELI CABINET SET TO VOTE 
AUGUST 7 ON SETTLEMENT EVACUATION LOGISTICS 
 
REF: TEL AVIV 4694 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Daniel C. Kurtzer for reasons 1.4 (b,d). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY: The Cabinet is scheduled to vote August 7 on 
the evacuation of at least one of the four groups of 
settlements slated to be evacuated beginning August 17 
pursuant to Prime Minister Sharon's disengagement plan.  The 
vote will take place at the end of a week during which tens 
of thousands of disengagement opponents demonstrated against 
the withdrawal plan along the Israel-Gaza border, requiring 
the deployment of thousands of police and border guards to 
block their entry into the Gaza Strip.  Anti-disengagement 
groups plan more demonstrations next week.  While a June 6, 
2004 Cabinet decision requires the Cabinet to approve each of 
the four phases of evacuation before the next phase is 
implemented, it is likely that the Cabinet will approve 
several of the four phases of evacuation before disengagement 
begins August 17.  There is currently a clear majority of 
15-16 of the 22 ministers -- buttressed by Labor Party 
ministers' support -- to pass all of the phases (see reftel). 
 The political story behind the Cabinet's evacuation vote is 
whether Sharon's rival, Finance Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, 
will vote against the evacuation to further set himself up as 
Likud's more right-wing alternative to Sharon.  END SUMMARY. 
 
------------------------------- 
Details of Cabinet Vote Unclear 
------------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) Aharon Lishanksy, Office of the Cabinet Secretary, 
told Poloff August 4 that the August 7 Cabinet session agenda 
lists only one item: evacuation of settlements according to 
the disengagement plan.  Lishanksy stressed that the action 
agenda may only be decided upon August 7.  Vice Premier 
Shimon Peres' Deputy Director General for Administration Yona 
Bartal told Poloff August 4 that the Cabinet vote will likely 
be on just one group of settlements.  Ministry of Justice 
Knesset Liaison Paz Barnett told poloff August 4 that the IDF 
and police will present evacuation implementation plans to 
the Cabinet and that only then will the Cabinet decide on how 
to proceed with the evacuation.  Barnett said that it is 
still unclear which combination of settlement groups the 
Cabinet will vote to evacuate or if it will vote on all four 
phases together at the upcoming Sunday session.  According to 
the Israeli media, the Cabinet will vote August 7 to evacuate 
three isolated settlements in Gaza: Netzarim, Kfar Dorom, and 
Morag.  The Cabinet could then decide in the following weeks 
on the next groups, but may not decide in which order those 
settlements will be evacuated until close to the August 17 
commencement date. 
 
3.  (C) The IDF reportedly is trying to maintain secrecy as 
to the order in which the settlements will be evacuated. 
Director of Strategic Coordination Staff in the Prime 
Minister's Office BG (res.) Eval Giladi said in an August 4 
radio interview that the IDF should have flexibility during 
the withdrawal and that settlers who want to leave should be 
allowed to leave.  He noted, however, that he is "not sure if 
would make sense to say on the radio what the plan is." 
 
------------------------ 
Cabinet Majority Assured 
------------------------ 
 
4.  (C) Sharon is assured that at least 15-16 of the Cabinet 
ministers will support whatever combination of phased 
evacuation is proposed or an advance execution of the entire 
plan in one "continuous phase."  Several of the more 
right-wing Likud ministers, and those who have opposed 
disengagement from the beginning, are likely to vote against 
any evacuation at the August 7 session, such as Likud 
ministers Binyamin Netanyahu, Yisrael Katz, Danny Naveh, 
Limor Livnat, and possibly Tzachi Hanegbi.  Naveh reportedly 
may vote in favor of evacuating the first group of 
settlements in exchange for Cabinet approval of building a 
new neighborhood in E-1, near Ma'ale Adumim (septel).  While 
Netanyahu voted with the majority in approving the phased 
disengagement plan in June 2004, he will likely use any 
deviation from that June 2004 decision to vote against the 
evacuations on August 7.  Barnett noted that "inside 
politics" will be motivating Netanyahu.  Netanyahu can argue 
that the evacuation needs to be postponed until more of the 
logistical details have been resolved, such as where to house 
the evacuated settlers. 
 
5.  (C) The Cabinet vote on Sunday precedes the Cabinet's 
August 9 consideration of the controversial 2006 budget, to 
be presented by Netanyahu.  Peres assistant Bartal said that 
the Labor Party will meet before August 9 to discuss the 
budget, and that the Labor ministers are likely to vote 
against it. 
 
 
********************************************* ******************** 
Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv 
You can also access this site through the State Department's 
Classified SIPRNET website. 
********************************************* ******************** 
KURTZER