US embassy cable - 05MINSK904

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 000904 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/03/15 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PINR, BO 
SUBJECT: Russia's Missing Ambassador and the Sorry State of 
Union 
 
Refs: (A) Minsk 312, (B) 04 Minsk 985, (C) Minsk 499 
 
Classified by Ambassador George Krol for Reasons 1.4 (B,D) 
 
1. (C) Summary: Russia's newly appointed Ambassador to 
Belarus, and former Saratov governor, Dmitriy Ayatskov's 
arrival to assume his post has been delayed "indefinitely." 
Minsk has linked this delay to indelicate remarks Ayatskov 
made critical of Lukashenko, although the Russian MFA 
claims he remains in Moscow because of the lack of progress 
on the Union State.  Recent weeks witnessed a flurry of 
activity regarding the Union State, culminating in 
Lukashenko's surprise visit to Moscow.  It appears 
Lukashenko's reluctance to accede to Russian demands may be 
behind the contretemps.  Now, after the recent withdrawal 
of the Polish Ambassador, Belarus' relations with both its 
eastern and western neighbors remain cloudy.  End summary. 
 
 
Where's that Ambassador, with his "Bizarre Comments"? 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
2. (SBU) Incoming Russian Ambassador and former Saratov 
Governor Dmitriy Ayatskov is missing in action.  His 
predecessor, Ambassador Blokhin, departed Minsk July 8. 
Ayatskov was originally scheduled to arrive in Minsk the 
week of July 11, but on July 13 the Russian MFA announced 
his arrival had been delayed until sometime "in the near 
future."  No reason was given for the delay. 
 
3. (SBU) Ayatskov held a press conference in Saratov on 
July 19 where he stressed President Putin had given him the 
task of accelerating the Russian-Belarusian Union. 
Predicting success in unification, he announced, "I would 
like and I will surely be the last Ambassador of Russia to 
Belarus."  Ayatskov added it would be difficult to persuade 
Lukashenko to agree to full union, "Although difficult, my 
mission is possible... It is very difficult to persuade 
Lukashenko to change his mind.  He firmly plants his feet. 
Of course, he needs to change his perception of Russia and 
Belarus as separate countries, and of Putin and Lukashenko 
as leaders of separate countries.  In no case should he put 
on airs.  I will not be his errand boy just because he has 
worked there for a long time."  Ayatskov further predicted 
Belarus would adopt the Russian ruble in 2006, a long 
delayed initial step to further unification. 
 
4. (C) Official Minsk was not happy with Ayatskov's 
remarks.  Lukashenko, during his annual three-hour 
televised harangue on the harvest, commented, "You must 
have heard the speech of the future, or possibly not 
future, Russian Ambassador in Belarus Dmitriy Ayatskov and 
his bizarre statements.  We are studying them."  In another 
presentation, Lukashenko called the comments "extravagant" 
and accused Russia of trying to pressure him before his 
July 20 meeting with Putin.  Belarus' MFA maintained, 
"Russian TV channels highlighted an interview with 
Ayatskov, which quite surprised us.  His allegations do not 
correspond to the warm and friendly way in which relations 
between our countries are developing."  The MFA's spokesman 
added, "I don't remember anyone speaking like this before 
the presentation of credentials." 
 
5. (SBU) No one seems to know when Ayatskov will arrive in 
Minsk.  Various sources told the press he would be arriving 
on July 27 by plane.  When he failed to appear, the 
Belarusian MFA announced he would fly in July 28.  Again, 
Ayatskov was a no show.  Moscow sources then told the press 
he would take the night train to Minsk, arriving July 29. 
A crowd of journalists went to the train station, but the 
conductor told them Ayatskov had purchased a ticket but not 
gotten on the train. 
 
6. (SBU) On July 29 the GOR announced Ayatskov's arrival 
was being delayed indefinately.  When asked by the press if 
this delay was related to Ayatskov's comments, Russia's MFA 
replied, "His press conference attracted attention and 
resonated with the press.  However, [the delay] is because 
of other issues.  It is about the need for additional 
deeper consideration of a number of relevant matters 
concerning the current and future tasks of building the 
union state and integration cooperation between our two 
countries."  On July 29 the Russian Embassy in Minsk added 
the wrinkle that Ayatskov's arrival will depend on the date 
the GOB agrees to accept his credentials.  However, the 
Embassy admitted it is currently not talking with the 
Belarusian MFA on setting a date as the Belarusian Foreign 
Minister is on vacation until mid-August. 
 
MINSK 00000904  002 OF 003 
 
 
 
 
Is it Linked to No Progress on Union? 
------------------------------------- 
 
7. (C) Another disagreement on the Union State appears to 
be brewing.  In recent weeks Russian officials have made 
several comments supporting further unification of Belarus 
and Russia and questioning Lukashenko's interest in union. 
Minsk has replied by giving lip service to union but also 
insisting on improbable demands, such as holding public 
referendum in both states on a Constitutional Act. 
 
8. (C) For the past few years Russia has been pushing for 
Belarus to adopt the Russian ruble, while Minsk has been 
throwing out unrealistic preconditions (ref C) and delaying 
the process.  In April Minsk's National Bank said the 
latest target date, January 2006, could not be met.  On 
July 19 Russia's First Vice Speaker of the Duma, Lyubov 
Sliska, replied, "I would very much like to ask a question 
of Mr. Lukashenko.  Aleksandr Grigoryevich, when will we 
have a true Union State?  How long will you continue 
delaying the adoption of the Russian ruble?" 
 
9. (SBU) On July 20, the day Putin and Lukashenko met 
outside Moscow, a Russian MFA spokesman said development of 
the Union State is a top priority for Russian-Belarusian 
relations.  The spokesman listed a number of Union State 
agreements Russia expected to be signed soon, and added, 
"We may say without exaggeration the relationship between 
the two countries has been developing at a growing pace." 
Putin told the press July 27, "The formation of a union 
with Belarus depends on Belarus alone." 
 
10. (C) Belarus, while giving lip service to greater union, 
is openly hesitant (ref B).  One common Belarusian delaying 
tactic is to insist on full equality between Russia and 
Belarus in the union, something Putin has publicly 
rejected.  On July 2 Lukashenko told a Russian TV 
journalist he supports the Union State, "We will surely be 
together and now is the moment our generation can do this. 
Let us make this move."  However, "The parties of this 
state alliance should enjoy equal rights... The Russian 
political elite should admit it would have to compete with 
Belarus' elite, which is smaller, but more honest, 
purposeful, and as educated as yours.  But I see the 
Russian elite are not ready for that... Belarus is 
perplexed that Russia violates the clauses of the Union 
Treaty... Now they stray from the Union construction plan 
and put forward the inadmissible initiative, the 
introduction of the common currency.  This should be the 
ultimate result of union construction." 
 
11. (C) Commenting July 26 as to whether Putin offered him 
any personal guarantees in exchange for Belarus joining the 
Union State, Lukashenko replied, "This has never been a 
matter of discussion and never will be.  We will not give 
our land to anyone.  We do not trade in sovereignty.  This 
is impossible, I have repeatedly said that."  [Note: Last 
year Lukashenko said Russia would gain another Chechnya if 
it attempted to incorporate Belarus.]  Lukashenko supporter 
and Secretary of State for the Union State Pavel Borodin 
told the press July 18 that Belarus was responsible for no 
progress being made on ownership of Union State property. 
However, Borodin blamed this on presidential aides working 
against Lukashenko's express orders [comment: highly 
unlikely in Lukashenko's Belarus]. 
 
12. (C) Meanwhile Belarusian officials seem to still be 
using the pretext of needing to draft a Constitutional Act 
before the Union State can progress.  This act, which 
Belarus insists would have to pass popular referendums in 
both countries, would change the Russian and Belarusian 
constitutions to allow their merger.  GOB officials, 
including Lukashenko, reiterated several times in July that 
Russia and Belarus have not yet agreed on a Constitutional 
Act, so the Union State will not be possible in the near 
future.  [Note: Before this flurry of attention in July, we 
do not recall the last time GOB officials discussed the 
Constitutional Act in such detail.]  Lukashenko's 
spokesperson and Deputy Head of the Presidential 
Administration Natalia Petkevich stated on July 11, "Our 
aspiration for union progress is visible in all our 
actions.  Yet there is no Constitutional Act, so we have no 
grounds for speaking about the referendum." 
 
 
Its all about Union 
 
MINSK 00000904  003 OF 003 
 
 
------------------- 
 
13. (C) Comment: Despite the GOB's talk about welcoming 
union, their actions say otherwise.  Ayatskov's only 
"crime" was in openly stating his job is to promote union, 
and in identifying Belarus as the obstructionist party 
(although he was indelicate in his phrasing).  For this, 
Lukashenko and the GOB lashed out at Ayatskov and are 
openly hinting he may not be welcome in Minsk.  Moscow and 
Minsk appear ever more distant in reaching agreement on the 
union they both claim to want.  Russia may have thought, 
with Belarus under siege from the West, that Lukashenko 
could be forced to an union agreement on Russia's terms as 
Russia remains his only friend in the region.  But all's 
fair in love and war, and Lukashenko has shown once again 
his ability to thwart Russian efforts -- but a major 
question remains, how long will Russia's patience last? 
 
14. (C) Comment cont'd: The GOR announced Ayatskov's 
arrival would be delayed a full week before he made his 
comments on union.  The GOR subsequently insisted Ayatskov 
is in Moscow discussing how to promote the Union State, a 
Russian priority.  Lukashenko is already dragging his heels 
on adopting the Russian ruble, and appears in no hurry to 
surrender his country to Russia (as an equal union with 
Russia is highly improbable).  As a result, Russia's 
Ambassador to Minsk remains in Moscow.  Following Poland's 
recent withdrawal of its Ambassador from Minsk, Belarus' 
two most important neighbors to the east and west are 
without ambassadors in Minsk, further clouding Belarus' 
international relations under the mercurial Lukashenko. 
 
 
KROL