US embassy cable - 05MANILA3611

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANILA 003611 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/PMBS, INR/EAP, DRL/CRA, DS, S/CT 
USAID FOR CDOWNEY 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/04/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, PINS, PTER, KISL, ASEC, RP 
SUBJECT: SUPREME COURT DECLINES TO POSTPONE ELECTION IN 
MUSLIM AUTONOMOUS REGION IN MINDANAO 
 
REF: A. MANILA 3477 
 
     B. MANILA 3046 
     C. MANILA 2887 
     D. MANILA 2442 
 
Classified By: Political Officer Timothy Cipullo for 
Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  The Philippine Supreme Court has declined a 
request that it postpone the August 8 elections in the 
Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM).  At this point, 
it looks like the elections will be held on schedule. 
Preparations for the elections proceed apace, including in 
the security arena.  During a visit to Marawi, an important 
Muslim city on August 3, residents told poloff that they were 
excited about the elections, but they expressed concerns 
about possible fraud and violence.  Mission is moving ahead 
with its observation plans, and continues to underscore the 
need for free, fair and safe elections.  End Summary. 
 
------------------------------ 
Supreme Court Declines Request 
------------------------------ 
 
2.  (C) On August 3, the Philippine Supreme Court declined a 
request that it issue a Temporary Restraining Order (TRO) 
that would postpone the August 8 elections in the ARMM.  The 
request for the TRO had been made by leftist "party list" 
House representatives.  The petition charged that the holding 
of the election was unconstitutional because it was not 
synchronized with national elections.  In an August 4 
conversation, Supreme Court Spokesman Ismael Khan told Acting 
Pol/C that the justices were unlikely to consider any further 
petitions on the matter before election day.  Legislative 
maneuvers to delay the elections also appear to have come up 
for naught, so far.  Congress, for example, has failed to act 
on a bill proposed by Representatives Gerry Salapuddin and 
Hussin Amin seeking to postpone the elections until 2007. 
Salapuddin and Amin claimed that the election should be 
postponed because the Commission of Elections (COMELEC) is 
not ready to hold them.  In addition, the ARMM Regional 
Assembly has failed to act on a similar bill introduced by an 
assemblyman. 
 
------------------------- 
Preparations Move Forward 
------------------------- 
 
3.  (C) At this point, barring the unforeseen, the elections 
appear almost certain to proceed on schedule on August 8 and 
preparations in the ARMM are continuing.  During an August 3 
visit to Marawi, a key Muslim-dominated city, poloff spoke 
with Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) Brigadier General 
Benjamin Dolorfino, who is in charge of all military and 
security preparations in the ARMM for the election period. 
Dolorfino related that his Joint Task Force-HOPE ("Honest, 
Orderly, and Peaceful Elections") involves five brigades, 
clustered in key cities in each of the ARMM's five provinces. 
 He said the situation in the ARMM was currently stable, but 
the Task Force expects problems in Lanao del Sur and 
Maguindanao Provinces from private armed groups and 
family/clan-based conflicts (locally known as "rido"). 
Dolorfino did not voice concern that elements linked with the 
Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and the Moro National 
Liberation Front (MNLF) would try to disrupt the elections. 
He indicted that he had received assurances from former MNLF 
Chairman Nur Misuari, who is now in jail near Manila, that 
his loyalists would vote in the elections and not try to 
undermine it.  (Note:  The MILF has publicly announced that 
it would boycott the ARMM elections.  The MNLF also denounced 
the elections, but Misuari later announced that members of 
his faction would participate.  End Note.) 
 
4.  (C) Dolorfino told poloff that the military is 
coordinating closely with the Philippine National Police 
(PNP) and COMELEC.  Security forces plan to control crowds at 
the precincts by allowing only 10 voters in at a time. 
Security forces also aim to reduce the number of loiterers 
who typically intimidate voters or otherwise interfere with 
the voting process.  Dolorfino added that voting materials 
are arriving under controlled and secure conditions at 
regional hubs for distribution in time for election day. 
 
5.  (U) At a separate "stakeholders dialogue" in Marawi 
hosted by Mindanao State University, poloff underlined U.S. 
support for free, fair, and safe ARMM elections to a 
gathering of about 50 local NGO employees involved in voter 
education.  General Dolorfino and Ray Sumalipao, a COMELEC 
official, also attended the meeting.  The bulk of Sumalipao's 
remarks were in defense of COMELEC's record (COMELEC has been 
battered by charges of malfeasance and incompetence).  He 
concluded by emphasizing that COMELEC will work hard to make 
the election a success.  He urged that voters and candidates 
conduct themselves responsibly during what is left of the 
campaign, on election day, and during the counting of the 
votes. 
 
6.  (U) Mission held its final briefing session for its teams 
of election observers on August 4.  Mission plans to send 
five teams total to Cotabato City (two teams), Marawi City, 
Basilan, and Sultan Kudarat municipality, starting August 7, 
to observe polling and canvassing in the ARMM.  The teams 
have been accredited through COMELEC and Mission has 
coordinated its efforts with other countries sending 
observers, including Australia and the UK. 
 
------------------ 
The Mood in Marawi 
------------------ 
 
7.  (C) While in Marawi, poloff noticed large numbers of 
campaign posters and banners for all ARMM positions subject 
to election there.  There was a palpable sense of excitement 
among local voter education and election monitors determined 
to make a difference in the election.  Regular citizens also 
seemed interested and involved in the process.  Nonetheless, 
poloff also noticed a strong sense of pessimism on the future 
of the ARMM and the perceived favorite in the governor's 
race, Zaldy Ampatuan.  Marawi Mayor Omar Solitario Ali, a 
candid, well-informed interlocutor, told poloff privately 
that he hoped the elections would be postponed, adding that 
he distrusted Ampatuan and did not think that the ARMM would 
be governed well if Ampatuan won.  Ali added that the 
Ampatuan family has a reputation for being corrupt.  The 
Ampatuans were also at odds with the families and clans 
associated with the MILF, which did not augur well for the 
GRP-MILF peace process, he claimed. 
 
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Comment 
------- 
 
8.  (C) There has been considerable debate about the holding 
of the ARMM elections.  They were scheduled to take place 
last year, but were pushed back due to lack of funding and 
general election fatigue after the tumultuous May 2004 
national elections.  As noted, the elections also have not 
been popular with the MILF, nor with some MNLF elements. 
Nonetheless, the elections now look set for next Monday, 
although there is little optimism -- despite earlier hopes -- 
that they can serve as a model for the Philippines as a 
whole.  Mission, at every opportunity, continues to 
underscore the need for the elections to take place in a 
free, fair and safe environment. 
 
Visit Embassy Manila's Classified SIPRNET website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eap/manila/index. cfm 
 
You can also access this site through the State Department's 
Classified SIPRNET website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/ 
 
MUSSOMELI