US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI3240

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 003240 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/03/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, TW, Cross Strait Politics, Domestic Politics 
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT CHEN REITERATES "REPUBLIC OF CHINA IS 
TAIWAN" 
 
REF: 2004 TAIPEI 3265 
 
Classified By: AIT Deputy Director David J. Keegan.  Reason: 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary.  Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian, in 
extemporaneous comments to a pro-independence visiting 
delegation on August 2, reiterated publicly the phrase "the 
Republic of China (ROC) is Taiwan," a statement first 
presented in his Double Ten speech last year.  Presidential 
insiders insist Chen said nothing new and may have actually 
been trying to dampen pro-independence enthusiasm among deep 
Green youth. Premier Hsieh's offer of flexibility on 
cross-Strait links may have been intended as a moderate 
counter to Chen's deep Green remarks. Nonetheless, Chen's 
suggestion that Taiwan is in the fourth stage of an evolving 
relationship with the ROC will be an unsettling reminder to 
many here and in Beijing of Chen's sympathy at least for the 
pro-independence objectives of his "deep Green" supporters. 
End Summary. 
 
2.  (U) On August 2, President Chen spoke to a delegation of 
twenty "Youth Goodwill Ambassadors" sponsored by the 
U.S.-based Formosa Foundation and accompanied by Formosa 
Foundation Chairman and Presidential Advisor Wu Li-pei.  In 
his remarks, President Chen Shui-bian repeated the cryptic 
but, to Beijing, troublesome phrase "ROC is Taiwan."  He also 
unveiled his new description of the development of the 
relationship of the ROC and Taiwan, concluding with the 
statement that the fourth and current stage is "the ROC is 
Taiwan." 
 
Extemporaneous Comments, Not Prepared Speech 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
3.  (C) Presidential Senior Counselor and speechwriter Liu 
Shi-chung told AIT that Chen's statement was extemporaneous, 
not a formal speech from a prepared text.  The transcript on 
the Presidential Office website, he explained, was based on a 
transcript made by a Presidential Office press officer during 
Chen's statement.  As with many of Chen's courtesy calls with 
high profile visitors or supporters, television cameras were 
present to record the President's comments, and clips were 
broadcast that evening. 
 
A Matter of Audience 
-------------------- 
 
4.  (C) Speechwriter Liu suggested to AIT that Chen's 
comments were largely colored by his audience and by coming 
political events.  Chen, he noted, tends to speak directly to 
the audience in front of him, in this case the "deep-Green" 
Formosa Foundation.  On Saturday, August 6, moreover, 
President Chen will attend the fourth anniversary celebration 
of the founding of the staunchly pro-independence Taiwan 
Solidarity Union (TSU), where he will share the stage with 
TSU "spiritual leader" and former President Lee Teng-hui.  In 
 
SIPDIS 
the face of ongoing deep-Green criticisms of President Chen's 
cross-Strait policy, Liu maintained, the President's August 2 
comments were an effort to find a "middle way" between 
Pan-Blue's "one China" and TSU's independence fundamentalism. 
 
 
Background of Disappointment 
---------------------------- 
 
5.  (C) Chen's opening comments on APEC suggest a second 
motivation for his remarks -- his disappointment at being 
denied the opportunity to attend the upcoming APEC Leaders 
Meeting in Pusan.  Presidential Deputy SecGen James Huang had 
told the Deputy Director earlier that Chen's July 22 
announcement of his hope to personally attend APEC was 
intended primarily to demonstrate to the international 
community Chen's and Taiwan's sincerity and willingness to 
deal with the PRC; he had little or no expectation that his 
offer would be accepted. He was, nonetheless, deeply 
disappointed that there had not been more support for his 
proposal. 
 
"ROC is Taiwan" 
--------------- 
 
6.  (C) NSC Senior Advisor Lin Cheng-wei noted that Chen 
first publicly uttered the controversial "ROC is Taiwan, 
Taiwan is ROC" formulation during his September 2004 visit to 
Belize.  Chen was responding to widespread dismay in Taiwan 
over the treatment of Taiwan in the Summer Olympics (Taiwan's 
two gold medalists were denied both their national anthem and 
their national flag).  Chen then reiterated the phrase in his 
October 10 ROC National Day speech, which speechwriter Liu 
acknowledged had caused considerable discomfort in the U.S. 
because that part of the speech had been a surprise, having 
been omitted from the speech draft that AIT previewed (see 
reftel).  Liu noted that he had heard CSB use the phrase a 
number of times privately, but not publicly again until 
August 2. 
 
Four Stages of ROC-Taiwan 
------------------------- 
 
7.  (C) Regarding Chen's four stages in the relationship of 
the ROC and Taiwan, Lin acknowledged that this appeared to be 
a new sequence by Chen.  He argued, however, that it was a 
natural outgrowth of Chen's October 10 speech "ROC is Taiwan, 
Taiwan is ROC" formulation.  According to this sequence, the 
four stages are:  "ROC is Mainland China" (1912-49), "ROC to 
Taiwan" (1949-88), "ROC on Taiwan" (1988-2000), and "ROC is 
Taiwan" (2000 and after).  A TSU critic complained that Chen 
omitted the future "fifth stage" -- changing Taiwan's name 
and building a republic on Taiwan. 
 
Another Motivation: "Let's Face Reality" 
---------------------------------------- 
 
8.  (C) James Huang, Deputy Secretary General in the 
President's Office, argued to AIT that Chen's remarks were 
not intended to please his audience but to caution them. 
Huang explained that the Formosa Foundation had selected its 
good will ambassadors from the families of its deep Green 
supporters where they would have heard unrealistic 
perspectives "on certain sensitive political issues." 
President Chen, he contended, did not want these youth to 
have any illusions. With that in mind, he offered an 
extemporaneous presentation of the difficulties Taiwan faces 
in the international environment, explaining why it was 
necessary for Taiwan to accept the term "Chinese Taipei" in 
the Olympics, APEC, and the WTO, then reviewing the 
difficulties Taiwan had encountered in seeking even observer 
status in the WHO. Chen offered this review so that they 
would understand why it is necessary to accept the ROC 
political system. Huang said that Chen offered this 
explanation in front of the Formosa Foundation to counter 
deep Gre 
en accusations that he had fallen into the "one China" trap 
by even offering to attend the APEC Leaders Meeting as the 
leader of "Chinese Taipei." The four stages were a secondary 
feature of Chen's remarks, Huang said, and not really 
anything new. 
 
Comment:  Unsettling Regardless of Motivation 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
9. (C) Chen's remarks may have been extempore, but they 
reflect, at a minimum, concepts that he has been refining in 
conversations with close advisors over some time. The fact 
that television cameras were present and the transcript was 
quickly put on the Presidential Office website leave room for 
the possibility that there may have been more method than 
chance to the President's "ROC is Taiwan" statement. If so, 
Premier Hsieh's indications today, August 3, that the 
government is prepared to be flexible on cross-Strait 
charters and airline requests to overfly the PRC en route to 
Europe may serve to appeal to moderates here and soften PRC 
negative reaction to Chen's comments to the Formosa 
Foundation. 
 
10 (C) While presidential insiders insist there is nothing 
new in Chen's speech, his suggestion that Taiwan is the 
fourth stage of an evolving relationship with the ROC will be 
an unsettling reminder to many here and in Beijing of Chen's 
sympathy at least for the pro-independence objectives of his 
"deep Green" supporters. AIT Deputy Director noted to Huang 
that this formulation will almost inevitably raise questions 
about where Chen and Taiwan are headed. Chen's appearance at 
the TSU anniversary this coming Saturday may be another 
occasion for him to play to a deep Green crowd. 
PAAL